Indiana Fever at Los Angeles Sparks
IND
9-5
LA
7-8
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ndiana Fever visit Los Angeles Sparks Wednesday at 7/8 - 10:00 PM EDT. IND arrives on a 4-game win streak (5-3 in their last 8). LA is 4-5 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
IND leads series 1-0
IND87@LA78LA@INDupcomingIND@LAtodayScouting report
IND @ LA
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
IND -18.6
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
IND
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
9-5
Record
7-8
#3
Conf rank
#6
+4.9
Pt diff
-3.2
W4
Streak
L2
7-3
Last 10
5-5
62.2
Power score
43.6
#7
Power rank
#8
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
LA
Home
45
FG %
45
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.8%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.4± 14.0low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.7± 4.7medium
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.0± 8.4medium
Rebounds
- Nneka OgwumikeLA9.3± 4.8medium
- Aliyah BostonIND9.0± 4.0low
- Dearica HambyLA7.6± 2.8medium
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.9± 3.2medium
- Kelsey PlumLA6.4± 3.8low
- Erica WheelerLA4.6± 2.5medium
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.5± 0.8medium
- Aliyah BostonIND1.3± 1.7low
- Rae BurrellLA0.9± 1.4medium
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.8± 1.5medium
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.6medium
- Kelsey PlumLA1.3± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
LA
45.5%
FG%
44.5
45.7%
33.4%
3PT %
33.3
31.2%
91.6
PPG
85.5
87.7
21.3
Assists / G
18.0
19.7
15.1
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.9