Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NY

14-12

9998

DAL

17-9

WNBAMon, Jul 20FinalSeriesDAL leads series 2-1VegasNY -4.5

NY · top performer

Breanna Stewart

F · #30

34.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Arike Ogunbowale

G · #24

20.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 47pp · 4th Quarter · 0.0

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	42	33	10-19	2-4	11-12	+5	13	8
J. JonesC · #35	33	14	6-13	1-3	1-2	-4	10	2
R. AllenG · #9	32	6	2-7	1-6	1-2	0	3	1
S. IonescuG · #20	36	21	8-25	2-10	3-3	+7	4	2
P. AstierG · #18	25	7	3-10	1-3	—	-7	2	1
Bench
R. CarreraF · #14	3	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
H. XuC · #21	11	2	1-2	0-1	—	+1	2	1
R. GardnerG · #7	15	6	3-3	—	—	-4	4	0
M. FauthouxG · #4	27	10	2-5	2-5	4-4	+7	10	2
Team		99	35-84	9-32	20-23		48	17
DNP: A. Maley, B. Laney-Hamilton

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	38	13	4-7	—	5-6	-5	16	6
A. KuierF · #34	25	10	5-8	0-1	0-1	-3	4	2
O. SimsG · #1	21	5	2-4	1-1	—	+4	2	1
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	38	29	9-24	3-5	8-8	-5	5	6
A. FuddG · #35	43	15	6-13	3-6	—	+1	1	2
Bench
A. ClarkF · #7	4	0	0-1	—	—	+2	0	1
M. SiegristF · #20	11	13	5-7	3-3	—	+2	3	0
L. YueruC · #28	16	7	3-4	1-2	0-2	+4	0	1
S. SuttonG · #0	22	2	1-5	0-3	—	-7	1	7
A. JamesG · #10	8	4	1-3	—	2-2	+2	2	1
Team		98	36-76	11-21	15-19		34	27
DNP: H. Jones, C. Verona

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

35-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-76

FG %

9-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-21

20-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DAL leads series 2-1

May 24

DAL91@

NY76

Jul 8

DAL88@

NY77

Jul 17

NY0@

DAL0

Jul 21

NY99@

DAL98today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

174.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-20567%

DAL+17037%

5· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -4.5↗SpreadBet NY -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

+2.0 since open

Total

174.5

-2.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat DAL 99-98. B. Stewart paced them with 33 PTS, 13 REB, 8 AST. DAL outscored the other side 21-9 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 32 REB · 14 AST

GS 62

Bench(4)

18 PTS · 16 REB · 3 AST

GS 18

DALstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 28 REB · 17 AST

GS 57

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 6 REB · 10 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL4th Quarter · 3.5 · 83-81

+26pp→ 36% WP

Marine Fauthoux · personal foul

DAL4th Quarter · 0.0 · 83-83

+47pp→ 50% WP

Rebecca Allen · misses 33-foot three point jumper

NYOT · 1:49 · 95-93

+25pp→ 68% WP

Sabrina Ionescu · makes 24-foot three pointer

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
NY	25	25	9	24	16	99
DAL	22	25	21	15	15	98

Period scoring

NY won 3 · DAL won 1

Jones 7

Ogunbowale 7

Stewart 9

Fudd 7

Gardner 4

Shepard 4

Stewart 10

Ogunbowale 10

Ionescu 12

Ogunbowale 6

DAL

Shooting comparison

DAL

42%

35-84

47%

36-76

28%

9-32

3PT

52%

11-21

87%

20-23

79%

15-19

Play-by-play · 434 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
NY 99·DAL 98
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
NY 99·DAL 98
OT·0.0
Wings offensive team rebound
NY 99·DAL 98
OT·0.0
Arike Ogunbowale misses running layup
NY 99·DAL 98
−2pp
OT·3.5
Wings Full timeout
NY 99·DAL 98
OT·3.5
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
NY 99·DAL 98
−17pp
OT·27.5
(00:27.5) [Liberty] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
NY 99·DAL 98
+5pp
OT·27.5
Arike Ogunbowale makes 25-foot three pointer (Jessica Shepard assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 99·DAL 98
+6pp
OT·46.7
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 99·DAL 95
+3pp
OT·46.7
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 98·DAL 95
−0.6pp
OT·46.7
Azzi Fudd shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NY 97·DAL 95
−16pp
OT·1:01
Li Yueru makes layup (Sug Sutton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 97·DAL 95
+10pp
OT·1:04
Wings offensive team rebound
NY 97·DAL 93
+4pp
OT·1:05
Arike Ogunbowale misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
NY 97·DAL 93
−6pp
OT·1:20
Sabrina Ionescu makes driving layup (Breanna Stewart assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 97·DAL 93
−9pp
OT·1:33
Breanna Stewart defensive rebound
NY 95·DAL 93
−3pp
OT·1:37
Azzi Fudd misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
NY 95·DAL 93
−7pp
OT·1:44
Wings Full timeout
NY 95·DAL 93
OT·1:49
Sabrina Ionescu makes 24-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
NY 95·DAL 93
−25pp
OT·1:58
Marine Fauthoux defensive rebound
NY 92·DAL 93
−3pp
OT·2:00
Arike Ogunbowale misses 11-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 92·DAL 93
−7pp
OT·2:24
Sabrina Ionescu makes 9-foot running pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 92·DAL 93
−6pp
OT·2:39
Arike Ogunbowale makes 26-foot three pointer (Li Yueru assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 90·DAL 93
+19pp
OT·2:58
Breanna Stewart makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 90·DAL 90
−10pp
OT·2:59
Breanna Stewart offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 88·DAL 90
−7pp
OT·3:00
Breanna Stewart misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
NY 88·DAL 90
+7pp
OT·3:23
Li Yueru makes 23-foot three point jumper (Sug Sutton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 88·DAL 90
+18pp
OT·3:45
Sabrina Ionescu makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Breanna Stewart assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 88·DAL 87
−9pp
OT·4:00
Jessica Shepard makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 86·DAL 87
−6pp
OT·4:00
Jessica Shepard makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 86·DAL 86
+7pp

Betting line

NY -4.5·O/U 174.5·NY -205/DAL +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty went into Dallas Wings and beat them, 99–98 in overtime. It came down to the final possession.

DAL +4.5 cashed (NY won by 1). Total cleared the 174.5 OVER by 22.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

DAL

eFG%

shooting

47.0%

54.6%

TOV%

ball control

6.0%

7.7%

OREB%

offensive glass

38.6%

18.4%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

23.8%

19.7%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692
Breanna StewartNY · F
USG%.28091
Azzi FuddDAL · G
eFG%.58680

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.0%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
64.1%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
62.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
61.2%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-9.19

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-102

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+25.4pp

best edge · DAL · DraftKings

no live price

DAL

★ best

+180DraftKings

edge +25.4pp · implied 34.3%

Book	NY	DAL	Best edge
DraftKings	-218	+180★	+25.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DAL vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
21.7± 8.9high
Paige BueckersDAL
21.6± 6.0high
Sabrina IonescuNY
17.4± 8.3medium

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
12.2± 4.3high
Jonquel JonesNY
9.9± 2.7high
Breanna StewartNY
8.8± 2.8high

Assists

Paige BueckersDAL
6.3± 1.9high
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.3± 3.2high
Sabrina IonescuNY
4.4± 2.0medium

Blocks

Breanna StewartNY
1.4± 1.1high
Awak KuierDAL
1.2± 1.5high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.1± 0.8high

Steals

Azzi FuddDAL
1.8± 1.3high
Leonie FiebichNY
1.2± 1.1medium
Pauline AstierNY
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Isaac Barnett

Referee

Sarah Williams

Referee

Jason Alabanza

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Team pages

New York LibertyDallas Wings

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop