New York Liberty at Dallas Wings
NY
11-4
DAL
9-6
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ew York Liberty visit Dallas Wings Thursday at 7/16 - 9:00 PM EDT. NY arrives on a 7-game win streak (7-0 in their last 7). DAL is 4-3 in their last 7.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
46
FG %
46
Season series
DAL leads series 1-0
DAL91@NY76DAL@NYupcomingNY@DALtodayScouting report
NY @ DAL
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
NY -32.6
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
NY
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
11-4
Record
9-6
#1
Conf rank
#4
+6.6
Pt diff
+4.9
W8
Streak
L1
8-2
Last 10
6-4
94.5
Power score
61.9
#1
Power rank
#6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY18.6± 8.2medium
- Paige BueckersDAL18.2± 8.8medium
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL14.8± 11.8medium
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL11.8± 4.2medium
- Jonquel JonesNY9.3± 4.0medium
- Breanna StewartNY8.6± 2.4medium
Assists
- Paige BueckersDAL6.1± 4.0medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL5.1± 3.5medium
- Sug SuttonDAL4.6± 3.0low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.5± 1.4medium
- Awak KuierDAL1.1± 1.2low
- Azzi FuddDAL1.1± 1.3medium
Steals
- Azzi FuddDAL1.6± 1.6medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.5± 1.5medium
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.4± 1.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
DAL
46.2%
FG%
44.6
45.8%
35.1%
3PT %
33.4
34.1%
88.9
PPG
85.7
87.6
21.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.1
14.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3