Indiana Fever at Phoenix Mercury
IND
9-6
PHX
4-12
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ndiana Fever visit Phoenix Mercury Thursday at 7/9 - 10:00 PM EDT. IND is 5-4 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
45
FG %
42
Season series
Series starts 6/22
PHX@INDupcomingPHX@INDupcomingIND@PHXtodayScouting report
IND @ PHX
Tale of the tape
9-6
Record
4-12
#3
Conf rank
#7
+4.1
Pt diff
-5.0
L1
Streak
L4
6-4
Last 10
2-8
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey MitchellIND20.2± 5.2medium
- Kahleah CopperPHX19.6± 10.1medium
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 8.8medium
Rebounds
- Aliyah BostonIND9.0± 3.4medium
- Natasha MackPHX8.1± 3.4medium
- Alyssa ThomasPHX6.9± 3.2medium
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.3± 2.7medium
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.7± 3.2medium
- Aliyah BostonIND3.0± 1.3medium
Blocks
- Aliyah BostonIND1.4± 1.6medium
- Natasha MackPHX1.4± 1.2medium
- Makayla TimpsonIND0.8± 1.1medium
Steals
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX1.6± 1.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.5± 1.4medium
- DeWanna BonnerPHX1.1± 1.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
PHX
45.5%
FG%
44.5
42.3%
33.4%
3PT %
33.3
32.3%
91.6
PPG
85.5
81.8
21.3
Assists / G
18.0
18.9
15.1
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.4