Portland Fire at Connecticut Sun
POR
8-9
CON
2-14
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ortland Fire visit Connecticut Sun Tuesday at 7/14 - 11:00 AM EDT.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
CON
Home
45
FG %
42
Season series
POR leads series 2-0
CON82@POR83CON61@POR71POR@CONtodayScouting report
POR @ CON
Tale of the tape
8-9
Record
2-14
#5
Conf rank
#7
-5.9
Pt diff
-11.0
W1
Streak
L6
4-6
Last 10
1-9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Carla LeitePOR13.6± 5.7medium
- Bridget CarletonPOR12.6± 7.3medium
- Megan GustafsonPOR12.1± 5.5medium
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON10.2± 5.1medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.2± 3.4medium
- Brittney GrinerCON4.5± 2.6low
Assists
- Carla LeitePOR5.9± 3.6medium
- Leila LacanCON5.0± 2.8low
- Teja OblakPOR3.4± 2.5low
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.9± 0.9medium
- Brittney GrinerCON1.4± 1.6low
- Saniya RiversCON0.9± 0.9medium
Steals
- Leila LacanCON1.7± 1.5low
- Bridget CarletonPOR1.4± 1.2medium
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.3± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
POR
league avg
CON
44.6%
FG%
44.6
42.4%
34.1%
3PT %
33.4
25.9%
82.2
PPG
85.7
78.1
19.8
Assists / G
18.0
18.6
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.8