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WNBA·Model edges
Where the model
disagrees with Vegas.
Tonight's slate ranked by the gap between the model's home-team win probability and the moneyline's de-juiced implied probability. The list runs largest gap first. Edges under 3 percentage points sit inside model noise; sharps tend to live at five or higher on the same side.
Slate
1 games
With odds
1
Top edge
+3.5pp
WNBA · model edges · tonight
Where the model disagrees with the price.
1 games priced · 1 of 1 shown
EV filter
Pick: IND+2.1%EV
INDvsTOR
Model54.6%
Market51.1%
Best price-115 · ATS
Magnitude is the percentage-point gap between our model's home win probability and the moneyline's implied probability. Edges under ~3pp are at the edge of model noise; meaningful sharps tend to live at 5+ on the same side.
Calibration · the receipt nobody else shows
Are the model's probabilities honest.
When the model says 60%, does the team actually win 60% of the time? Each row plots predicted probability against observed win rate across 1 league · 105 games · last 90 days. Closer to the dashed line is better.
-6.30pp
avg ECE drop · raw → calibrated
WNBA
105 games
ECE14.22%→7.92%↓ 44%
biggest gap · over-priced 40%-50% · 29.6pp
7.92%
ECE cal
ECE = expected calibration error · weighted avg gap between predicted prob and observed rate across deciles. Lower is better. Calibrated values use a Platt scaler refit on the rolling 90-day window.
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