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FINAL+1COL
COL

COL

46-13-10

32
WSH

WSH

35-27-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Mar 22FinalSeriesCOL wins series 2-0VegasCOL -162

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Washington Capitals and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

WSH +1.5 cashed (COL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Martin Necas

Martin Necas

C · #88

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

WSH
Connor McMichael

Connor McMichael

C · #24

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
3
2
COL46-13-10WSH35-27-9
COL

COL

46-13-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WSH

WSH

35-27-9

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

4

Season series

COL wins series 2-0

Jan 19WSHWSH2@COLCOL5
Mar 22COLCOL3@WSHWSH2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-16262%
WSHWSH+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat WSH 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
COL00213
WSH10102

Period scoring

COL won 2 · WSH won 1

0
1

1

0
0

2

2
1

3

1
0

OT

COL
WSH

Play-by-play · 261 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·1:22

    Game End

    COL 3·WSH 2

  2. OT·1:22

    End of OT

    COL 3·WSH 2

  3. OT·1:22

    Brock Nelson Goal (32) Tip-In, assists: Martin Necas (54), Devon Toews (16)

    · ·

    COL 3·WSH 2

  4. OT·1:07

    Brock Nelson Slap Shot Short

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  5. OT·0:53

    Martin Necas Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  6. OT·0:24

    Valeri Nichushkin shot blocked by Martin Fehervary

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  7. OT·0:17

    Nathan MacKinnon Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  8. OT·0:00

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  9. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    COL 2·WSH 2

  10. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 2·WSH 2

  11. 3rd·19:59

    Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Dylan Strome

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  12. 3rd·19:59

    Icing

    COL 2·WSH 2

  13. 3rd·19:29

    Joel Kiviranta hit Matt Roy

    · ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  14. 3rd·19:19

    Brent Burns Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  15. 3rd·19:18

    Giveaway by Matt Roy

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  16. 3rd·19:12

    Rasmus Sandin hit Josh Manson

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  17. 3rd·19:09

    Josh Manson Batted Wide Right

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  18. 3rd·19:08

    Brent Burns Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  19. 3rd·18:37

    Martin Fehervary hit Sam Malinski

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  20. 3rd·17:17

    Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Justin Sourdif

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  21. 3rd·17:17

    Icing

    COL 2·WSH 2

  22. 3rd·16:54

    Cale Makar shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  23. 3rd·16:50

    Nathan MacKinnon shot blocked by Gabriel Landeskog

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  24. 3rd·16:47

    Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  25. 3rd·16:47

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 2·WSH 2

  26. 3rd·16:45

    Devon Toews Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  27. 3rd·16:41

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  28. 3rd·16:41

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 2·WSH 2

  29. 3rd·16:40

    Josh Manson Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    COL 2·WSH 2

  30. 3rd·16:33

    Takeaway by Josh Manson

    COL 2·WSH 2

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

24

Shots

22

0.0

PCT

20.0

10

PIM

4

28

Faceoffs W

19

5

Blocks

14

13

Giveaways

12

7

Takeaways

2

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -162/WSH +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Ethen FrankWSH · C
    BURSTS22797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR