Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1COL

COL

46-13-10

WSH

35-27-9

NHLSun, Mar 22FinalSeriesCOL wins series 2-0VegasCOL -162

COL · top performer

Gabriel Landeskog

LW · #92

1Points

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

Alex Ovechkin

LW · #8

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	4:28
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	4:57
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:39
N. KadriC · #91	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	15:48
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	13:52
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:14
G. LandeskogLW · #92	1	0	1	2	3	1	2	17:21
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	22:50
M. NecasC · #88	0	2	1	2	1	0	0	23:36
B. NelsonC · #11	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	20:13
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	18:47
N. RoyC · #10	1	0	1	1	0	0	2	8:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	17:29
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	20:31
C. MakarD · #8	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	25:06
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	19:24
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	0	3	1	1	2	16:16
D. ToewsD · #7	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	19:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	22	2	20	.909	61:12

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	16:53
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	24:10
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	7:09
E. FrankC · #53	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1:22
H. LapierreC · #29	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	5:44
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	15:05
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	20:03
A. OvechkinLW · #8	1	0	0	3	2	0	2	18:45
A. ProtasC · #21	0	0	-2	3	0	1	0	20:37
J. SourdifRW · #34	1	0	1	2	3	2	0	17:22
D. StromeC · #17	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	14:31
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	0	-1	2	3	1	0	24:46

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	21:30
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	20:34
C. HutsonD · #44	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	17:55
M. RoyD · #3	0	1	-1	0	0	1	0	18:50
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	20:10
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	14:57

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	24	3	21	.875	61:05

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

COL wins series 2-0

Jan 19

WSH2@

COL5

Mar 22

COL3@

WSH2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL-16262%

WSH+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 53 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat WSH 3-2. G. Landeskog led the way — 1 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
COL	0	0	2	1	3
WSH	1	0	1	0	2

Period scoring

COL won 2 · WSH won 1

COL

WSH

Play-by-play · 261 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:22
Game End
COL 3·WSH 2
OT·1:22
End of OT
COL 3·WSH 2
OT·1:22
Brock Nelson Goal (32) Tip-In, assists: Martin Necas (54), Devon Toews (16)
· ·
COL 3·WSH 2
OT·1:07
Brock Nelson Slap Shot Short
·
COL 2·WSH 2
OT·0:53
Martin Necas Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
COL 2·WSH 2
OT·0:24
Valeri Nichushkin shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
·
COL 2·WSH 2
OT·0:17
Nathan MacKinnon Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
COL 2·WSH 2
OT·0:00
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois
·
COL 2·WSH 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·19:59
Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·19:59
Icing
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·19:29
Joel Kiviranta hit Matt Roy
· ·
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·19:19
Brent Burns Snap Shot Wide Right
·
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·19:18
Giveaway by Matt Roy
·
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·19:12
Rasmus Sandin hit Josh Manson
·
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·19:09
Josh Manson Batted Wide Right
·
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·19:08
Brent Burns Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·18:37
Martin Fehervary hit Sam Malinski
·
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·17:17
Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·17:17
Icing
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·16:54
Cale Makar shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas
·
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·16:50
Nathan MacKinnon shot blocked by Gabriel Landeskog
·
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·16:47
Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois
·
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·16:47
Goalie Stopped
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·16:45
Devon Toews Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·16:41
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois
·
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·16:41
Goalie Stopped
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·16:40
Josh Manson Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
COL 2·WSH 2
3rd·16:33
Takeaway by Josh Manson
COL 2·WSH 2

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -162/WSH +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Washington Capitals and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

WSH +1.5 cashed (COL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Aliaksei Protas · WSH20:420.5147.2%58.5%20:42 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 47.2% CF · 58.5% xGF
Tom Wilson · WSH25:120.4452.4%60.7%25:12 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 52.4% CF · 60.7% xGF
Josh Manson · COL16:180.4055.6%41.1%16:18 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 55.6% CF · 41.1% xGF
Brock Nelson · COL20:240.3548.5%36.6%20:24 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 48.5% CF · 36.6% xGF
Ryan Leonard · WSH15:180.3568.2%81.0%15:18 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 68.2% CF · 81.0% xGF
Martin Necas · COL23:480.3361.0%52.2%23:48 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 61.0% CF · 52.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Mackenzie Blackwood · COL20–2.909+0.4420–2 · .909 SV% · +0.44 GSAx
Logan Thompson · WSH21–3.875-0.7221–3 · .875 SV% · -0.72 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.6%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
48.0%
P(WSH win)
45%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
48.0%
P(WSH win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
49.4%
P(WSH win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

WSH vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 108 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nathan MacKinnonCOL
4.1± 2.3high
Alex OvechkinWSH
3.5± 1.4high
Alex TuchWSH
3.3± 1.7high

Goals

Nathan MacKinnonCOL
0.7± 0.7high
Alex OvechkinWSH
0.5± 1.1high
Tom WilsonWSH
0.5± 0.7high

Points

Nathan MacKinnonCOL
1.5± 1.2high
Martin NecasCOL
1.2± 1.0high
Alex OvechkinWSH
1.0± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Colorado AvalancheWashington Capitals

Elsewhere in the NHL