Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1VGK

VGK

32-25-14

DAL

43-16-11

NHLSun, Mar 22FinalSeriesDAL wins series 2-1VegasDAL -135

VGK · top performer

Ivan Barbashev

LW · #49

1Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Wyatt Johnston

C · #53

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:26
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	19:25
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	10:20
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	0	2	2	0	4	19:01
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:41
B. HowdenC · #21	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	12:48
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	1	0	1	4	0	0	14:13
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	1	1	5	1	3	0	22:14
C. SissonsC · #10	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	13:13
R. SmithRW · #19	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:48
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	12:13
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	0	5	0	2	0	21:50
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:58
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	13:31
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	0	1	4	1	2	16:00
B. McNabbD · #3	1	0	1	2	3	2	0	19:12
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	21:28

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. HillG · #33	15	2	13	.867	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:24
N. BastianRW · #11	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	8:43
J. BennLW · #14	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	13:40
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	13:54
M. BourqueC · #22	0	0	-2	3	4	1	0	16:35
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:51
M. DucheneC · #95	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	18:32
J. HryckowianC · #49	1	0	0	1	4	1	0	14:52
A. HyryRW · #25	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	11:18
W. JohnstonC · #53	1	0	-1	2	0	0	0	19:38
J. RobertsonLW · #21	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	21:06
S. SteelC · #18	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	16:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:56
T. HarleyD · #55	0	0	-1	0	0	3	0	24:47
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	1	0	1	1	4	2	26:08
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	21:37
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	-1	0	0	2	2	15:50
I. LyubushkinD · #46	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	13:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. DeSmithG · #1	33	3	30	.909	57:28

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DAL wins series 2-1

Jan 30

DAL5@

VGK4

Mar 11

VGK1@

DAL2

Mar 22

VGK3@

DAL2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK+11447%

DAL-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 33 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat DAL 3-2. I. Barbashev led the way — 1 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	1	1	1	3
DAL	2	0	0	2

Period scoring

VGK won 2 · DAL won 1

VGK

DAL

Play-by-play · 270 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 3·DAL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 3·DAL 2
3rd·19:16
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Thomas Harley
·
VGK 3·DAL 2
3rd·19:15
Giveaway by Matt Duchene
VGK 3·DAL 2
3rd·19:14
Takeaway by Matt Duchene
VGK 3·DAL 2
3rd·18:37
Nic Dowd shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen
·
VGK 3·DAL 2
3rd·16:56
Sam Steel Tip-In Wide Right
·
VGK 3·DAL 2
3rd·16:45
Colin Blackwell shot blocked by Jeremy Lauzon
·
VGK 3·DAL 2
3rd·16:22
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Colin Blackwell
·
VGK 3·DAL 2
3rd·16:22
Reilly Smith Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (51), Pavel Dorofeyev (24)
· ·
VGK 3·DAL 2
3rd·16:19
Mitch Marner shot blocked by Nils Lundkvist
·
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·16:03
Pavel Dorofeyev Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·15:14
Brayden McNabb shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen
·
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·15:10
Giveaway by Miro Heiskanen
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·15:09
Cole Smith hit Miro Heiskanen
· ·
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·14:50
Brett Howden hit Lian Bichsel
·
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·14:04
Takeaway by Oskar Bäck
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·13:48
Giveaway by Ivan Barbashev
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·13:13
Takeaway by Mavrik Bourque
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·12:57
Pavel Dorofeyev shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen
·
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·12:55
Mitch Marner Tip-In saved by Casey DeSmith
· ·
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·12:42
Mitch Marner Slap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
· ·
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·12:19
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Ilya Lyubushkin
·
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·12:18
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Matt Duchene
·
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·12:13
Mavrik Bourque hit Reilly Smith
· ·
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·12:10
Lian Bichsel hit Nic Dowd
·
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·11:59
Cole Smith hit Ilya Lyubushkin
· ·
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·11:55
Shea Theodore Wrist Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
· ·
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·11:49
Brayden McNabb shot blocked by Jamie Benn
·
VGK 2·DAL 2
3rd·11:46
Nic Dowd Snap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
· ·
VGK 2·DAL 2

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·VGK +114/DAL -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Dallas Stars and beat them, 3–2.

VGK +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Rasmus Andersson · VGK22:000.6274.2%83.2%22:00 TOI · 0.62 iXG · 74.2% CF · 83.2% xGF
Pavel Dorofeyev · NYR19:360.4773.0%67.2%19:36 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 73.0% CF · 67.2% xGF
Mavrik Bourque · DAL16:360.4432.4%39.6%16:36 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 32.4% CF · 39.6% xGF
Mitch Marner · VGK22:180.4068.4%62.9%22:18 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 68.4% CF · 62.9% xGF
Ivan Barbashev · VGK15:420.3981.8%90.4%15:42 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 81.8% CF · 90.4% xGF
Colton Sissons · VGK13:180.3476.2%79.5%13:18 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 76.2% CF · 79.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Casey DeSmith · DAL30–3.909+1.0330–3 · .909 SV% · +1.03 GSAx
Adin Hill · VGK13–2.867+0.0813–2 · .867 SV% · +0.08 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.1%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
68.1%
P(DAL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
68.1%
P(DAL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
68.1%
P(DAL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsDallas Stars

Elsewhere in the NHL