Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at NYR?

The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WPG

WPG

29-29-12

NYR

28-33-9

NHLSun, Mar 22FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNYR -115

WPG · top performer

Gabriel Vilardi

C · #13

2Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Mika Zibanejad

C · #93

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	13:46
K. ConnorLW · #81	0	1	0	4	0	2	0	24:46
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	18:22
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	11:12
B. LambertC · #93	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	13:04
A. LowryC · #17	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:06
G. NyquistRW · #14	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:30
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	1	0	1	1	1	2	17:43
I. RosenRW · #27	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10:10
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	0	0	3	0	1	2	24:40
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:05
G. VilardiC · #13	1	1	0	2	1	1	0	17:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	18:14
H. FleuryD · #24	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	10:43
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	26:47
N. PionkD · #4	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	25:27
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	19:38
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	23:05

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. ComrieG · #1	29	2	27	.931	64:37

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodzinskiC · #22	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	6:04
J. ChmelarRW · #49	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	6:03
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	17:30
A. EdstromC · #84	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	7:12
T. KartyeLW · #24	1	0	0	2	2	0	2	13:18
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	19:43
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	2	0	2	1	1	0	20:21
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	19:58
T. RaddyshRW · #14	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	17:51
C. ShearyLW · #43	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:16
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	24:31
M. ZibanejadC · #93	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	23:29

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	14:32
A. FoxD · #23	0	1	-1	1	0	2	0	23:19
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	24:17
C. MackeyD · #12	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	12:30
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	0	1	2	1	1	2	23:16
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	1	1	5	3	0	24:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. GarandG · #33	37	2	35	.946	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 13

NYR6@

WPG3

Mar 22

WPG3@

NYR2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG-10551%

NYR-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat NYR 3-2. G. Vilardi led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
WPG	1	1	0	0	1	3
NYR	0	2	0	0	0	2

Period scoring

WPG won 2 · NYR won 1

WPG

NYR

Play-by-play · 353 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
WPG 2·NYR 0
SO·0:00
End of OT
WPG 2·NYR 0
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
WPG 2·NYR 0
SO·0:00
Gabriel Vilardi Goal Snap Shot
WPG 2·NYR 0
SO·0:00
J.T. Miller Backhand saved by Eric Comrie
·
WPG 2·NYR 0
SO·0:00
Kyle Connor Goal Snap Shot
WPG 2·NYR 0
SO·0:00
Vincent Trocheck Backhand saved by Eric Comrie
·
WPG 2·NYR 0
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
WPG 2·NYR 0
OT·5:00
End of OT
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·4:56
Giveaway by Vincent Trocheck
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·4:52
Josh Morrissey Slap Shot saved by Dylan Garand
·
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·4:48
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·4:48
Timeout - Visitor
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·4:48
Alexis Lafrenière Hooking against Mark Scheifele
·
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·4:34
Kyle Connor shot blocked by Gabe Perreault
·
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·3:51
Mika Zibanejad Slap Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·3:44
J.T. Miller Slap Shot Wide Right
·
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·3:38
Mika Zibanejad Slap Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·3:32
Takeaway by Adam Fox
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·3:23
Mika Zibanejad shot blocked by Morgan Barron
·
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·3:03
Adam Fox Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
·
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·2:46
Vincent Trocheck Snap Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·2:13
J.T. Miller Slap Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·1:50
Adam Fox Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·1:39
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·1:39
Timeout - Home
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·1:39
Mark Scheifele Interference against Vladislav Gavrikov
·
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·0:00
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
WPG 2·NYR 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
WPG 2·NYR 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WPG 2·NYR 2

Betting line

NYR -1.5·O/U 6.5·WPG -105/NYR -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets went into New York Rangers and beat them, 3–2.

WPG +1.5 cashed (NYR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Kyle Connor · WPG24:480.9667.4%71.0%24:48 TOI · 0.96 iXG · 67.4% CF · 71.0% xGF
Cole Perfetti · WPG17:540.6360.0%63.7%17:54 TOI · 0.63 iXG · 60.0% CF · 63.7% xGF
J.T. Miller · NYR20:360.5551.4%50.9%20:36 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 51.4% CF · 50.9% xGF
Mark Scheifele · WPG24:540.4865.2%73.4%24:54 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 65.2% CF · 73.4% xGF
Vincent Trocheck · NYR24:420.4660.8%55.9%24:42 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 60.8% CF · 55.9% xGF
Tye Kartye · NYR13:240.4623.5%31.8%13:24 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 23.5% CF · 31.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Dylan Garand · NYR35–2.946+1.9635–2 · .946 SV% · +1.96 GSAx
Eric Comrie · WPG27–2.931+1.0827–2 · .931 SV% · +1.08 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.2%

ensemble · NYR favored

Elo Static
58.2%
P(NYR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(NYR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(NYR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at NYR?: The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Winnipeg JetsNew York Rangers

Elsewhere in the NHL