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FINAL+1WPG
WPG

WPG

29-29-12

32
NYR

NYR

28-33-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Mar 22FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNYR -115

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets went into New York Rangers and beat them, 3–2.

WPG +1.5 cashed (NYR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WPG · top performer

WPG
Gabriel Vilardi

Gabriel Vilardi

C · #13

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

NYR
J.T. Miller

J.T. Miller

LW · #8

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Winnipeg Jets at New York Rangers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
3
2
WPG29-29-12NYR28-33-9
WPG

WPG

29-29-12

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NYR

NYR

28-33-9

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

8

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 13NYRNYR6@WPGWPG3
Mar 22WPGWPG3@NYRNYR2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPGWPG-10551%
NYRNYR-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat NYR 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
WPG110013
NYR020002

Period scoring

WPG won 2 · NYR won 1

1
0

1

1
2

2

0
0

3

0
0

OT

1
0

SO

WPG
NYR

Play-by-play · 353 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    WPG 2·NYR 0

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    WPG 2·NYR 0

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    WPG 2·NYR 0

  4. SO·0:00

    Gabriel Vilardi Goal Snap Shot

    WPG 2·NYR 0

  5. SO·0:00

    J.T. Miller Backhand saved by Eric Comrie

    ·

    WPG 2·NYR 0

  6. SO·0:00

    Kyle Connor Goal Snap Shot

    WPG 2·NYR 0

  7. SO·0:00

    Vincent Trocheck Backhand saved by Eric Comrie

    ·

    WPG 2·NYR 0

  8. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    WPG 2·NYR 0

  9. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  10. OT·4:56

    Giveaway by Vincent Trocheck

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  11. OT·4:52

    Josh Morrissey Slap Shot saved by Dylan Garand

    ·

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  12. OT·4:48

    Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck

    ·

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  13. OT·4:48

    Timeout - Visitor

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  14. OT·4:48

    Alexis Lafrenière Hooking against Mark Scheifele

    ·

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  15. OT·4:34

    Kyle Connor shot blocked by Gabe Perreault

    ·

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  16. OT·3:51

    Mika Zibanejad Slap Shot saved by Eric Comrie

    ·

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  17. OT·3:44

    J.T. Miller Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  18. OT·3:38

    Mika Zibanejad Slap Shot saved by Eric Comrie

    ·

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  19. OT·3:32

    Takeaway by Adam Fox

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  20. OT·3:23

    Mika Zibanejad shot blocked by Morgan Barron

    ·

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  21. OT·3:03

    Adam Fox Wrist Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  22. OT·2:46

    Vincent Trocheck Snap Shot saved by Eric Comrie

    ·

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  23. OT·2:13

    J.T. Miller Slap Shot saved by Eric Comrie

    ·

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  24. OT·1:50

    Adam Fox Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  25. OT·1:39

    J.T. Miller faceoff won against Adam Lowry

    ·

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  26. OT·1:39

    Timeout - Home

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  27. OT·1:39

    Mark Scheifele Interference against Vladislav Gavrikov

    ·

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  28. OT·0:00

    Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Adam Lowry

    ·

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  29. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    WPG 2·NYR 2

  30. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    WPG 2·NYR 2

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

37

Shots

29

25.0

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

8

30

Faceoffs W

34

9

Blocks

12

11

Giveaways

20

3

Takeaways

5

Betting line

NYR -1.5·O/U 6.5·WPG -105/NYR -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • J.T. MillerNYR · LW
    SHOT MPH102.699+
  • Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
    DIST MI293.099+
  • Cole KoepkeWPG · LW
    SKATE MPH24.299
  • Adam EdstromNYR · C
    SKATE MPH23.898
  • Morgan BarronWPG · C
    SHOT MPH95.697

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · NYR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

NYR vs WPG.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 114 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Kyle ConnorWPG
    3.7± 1.8high
  • Mika ZibanejadNYR
    2.2± 1.0high
  • Josh MorrisseyWPG
    2.1± 1.1high

Goals

  • Kyle ConnorWPG
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Gabe PerreaultNYR
    0.4± 1.0high
  • Adam FoxNYR
    0.3± 0.5high

Points

  • Mark ScheifeleWPG
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Adam FoxNYR
    1.2± 1.0high
  • J.T. MillerNYR
    1.0± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR