
CAR
45-19-6

PIT
35-19-16
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
arolina Hurricanes went into Pittsburgh Penguins and beat them, 5–1.
CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CAR · top performer

Seth Jarvis
C · #24
1
G
2
A
—
SOG
PIT · top performer

Egor Chinakhov
RW · #59
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


CAR
45-19-6
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
PIT
35-19-16
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
8
PIM
14
Season series
CAR wins series 3-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CAR -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 10 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
CAR beat PIT 5-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Period scoring
CAR won 2 · PIT won 0
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 353 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 5·PIT 1
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 5·PIT 1
- 3rd·19:29
Sidney Crosby Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 5·PIT 1
- 3rd·19:22
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 5·PIT 1
- 3rd·19:22
Mike Reilly Tripping against Noel Acciari
·
CAR 5·PIT 1
- 3rd·19:16
Elmer Soderblom hit Alexander Nikishin
·
CAR 5·PIT 1
- 3rd·19:11
Noel Acciari Tip-In saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 5·PIT 1
- 3rd·18:56
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Connor Dewar
·
CAR 5·PIT 1
- 3rd·18:56
Mark Jankowski Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (24), Logan Stankoven (19)
· ·
CAR 5·PIT 1
- 3rd·18:50
Giveaway by Erik Karlsson
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·18:41
Jackson Blake Wrist Shot Wide Left
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·18:28
Frederik Andersen shot blocked by Egor Chinakhov
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·18:11
Ben Kindel Tip-In saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·18:11
Justin Brazeau Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·17:53
Ben Kindel hit Jalen Chatfield
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·17:35
Giveaway by Sebastian Aho
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·17:30
Egor Chinakhov Slap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·17:02
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Erik Karlsson
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·16:56
Andrei Svechnikov Wrist Shot Wide Right
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·16:55
Andrei Svechnikov Backhand Hit Right Post
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·16:42
Giveaway by Frederik Andersen
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·15:50
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·15:50
Goalie Stopped
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·15:48
Ben Kindel Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·15:28
Giveaway by Ryan Graves
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·15:26
Connor Clifton hit Eric Robinson
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·15:12
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·15:12
Icing
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·14:56
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
- 3rd·14:56
Egor Chinakhov Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (31), Sidney Crosby (35)
· ·
CAR 4·PIT 1
Team stats
CAR
Away
Stat
PIT
Home
26
Shots
19
60.0
PCT
0.0
8
PIM
14
34
Faceoffs W
36
14
Blocks
12
15
Giveaways
18
6
Takeaways
3
Betting line
CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -142/PIT +120
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
Egor ChinakhovPIT · RWSHOT MPH94.799
Sean WalkerCAR · DSKATE MPH22.998
Erik KarlssonPIT · DSKATE MPH22.897
Taylor HallCAR · LWBURSTS4696
Sebastian AhoCAR · CDIST MI44.795
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · PIT favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+120
Close price
+120
Open no-vig
43.7%
Close no-vig
43.7%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss