Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at PIT?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4CAR

CAR

45-19-6

PIT

35-19-16

NHLSun, Mar 22FinalSeriesCAR wins series 3-1VegasCAR -142

CAR · top performer

Seth Jarvis

C · #24

3Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Bryan Rust

RW · #17

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	19:43
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	16:32
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	1	1	4	1	0	11:00
N. EhlersLW · #27	1	1	0	4	1	1	0	16:15
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	-1	0	3	0	2	16:04
M. JankowskiLW · #77	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	10:53
S. JarvisC · #24	1	2	0	4	0	0	0	18:03
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	13:07
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	12:39
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	15:25
L. StankovenC · #22	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	16:20
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	1	0	5	0	0	0	17:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	19:36
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	24:36
A. NikishinD · #21	0	1	0	1	2	2	0	16:15
M. ReillyD · #6	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	11:09
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	20:46
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	1	0	2	4	0	21:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	19	1	18	.947	59:52

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	14:07
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	11:05
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	15:16
S. CrosbyC · #87	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	19:13
C. DewarC · #19	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	14:33
B. KindelC · #81	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:37
E. MalkinC · #71	0	0	-2	0	1	1	2	16:05
A. ManthaRW · #39	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	11:47
T. NovakC · #18	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	13:53
R. RakellRW · #67	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	20:01
B. RustRW · #17	0	1	0	4	2	2	0	19:07
E. SoderblomLW · #25	0	0	0	1	2	1	2	10:02

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	18:51
S. GirardD · #49	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	19:35
R. GravesD · #27	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	12:45
E. KarlssonD · #65	0	0	-2	2	1	1	2	21:47
K. LetangD · #58	0	0	-1	0	3	2	0	22:26
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	0	-1	0	3	0	2	20:53

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. SkinnerG · #74	25	4	21	.840	56:54

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

60.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CAR wins series 3-1

Dec 31

CAR1@

PIT5

Mar 10

PIT4@

CAR5

Mar 18

PIT5@

CAR6

Mar 22

CAR5@

PIT1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-14259%

PIT+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat PIT 5-1. S. Jarvis led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	1	3	1	5
PIT	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · PIT won 0

CAR

PIT

Play-by-play · 353 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 5·PIT 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 5·PIT 1
3rd·19:29
Sidney Crosby Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 5·PIT 1
3rd·19:22
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 5·PIT 1
3rd·19:22
Mike Reilly Tripping against Noel Acciari
·
CAR 5·PIT 1
3rd·19:16
Elmer Soderblom hit Alexander Nikishin
·
CAR 5·PIT 1
3rd·19:11
Noel Acciari Tip-In saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 5·PIT 1
3rd·18:56
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Connor Dewar
·
CAR 5·PIT 1
3rd·18:56
Mark Jankowski Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (24), Logan Stankoven (19)
· ·
CAR 5·PIT 1
3rd·18:50
Giveaway by Erik Karlsson
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·18:41
Jackson Blake Wrist Shot Wide Left
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·18:28
Frederik Andersen shot blocked by Egor Chinakhov
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·18:11
Ben Kindel Tip-In saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·18:11
Justin Brazeau Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·17:53
Ben Kindel hit Jalen Chatfield
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·17:35
Giveaway by Sebastian Aho
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·17:30
Egor Chinakhov Slap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·17:02
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Erik Karlsson
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·16:56
Andrei Svechnikov Wrist Shot Wide Right
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·16:55
Andrei Svechnikov Backhand Hit Right Post
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·16:42
Giveaway by Frederik Andersen
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·15:50
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·15:50
Goalie Stopped
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·15:48
Ben Kindel Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·15:28
Giveaway by Ryan Graves
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·15:26
Connor Clifton hit Eric Robinson
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·15:12
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·15:12
Icing
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·14:56
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 4·PIT 1
3rd·14:56
Egor Chinakhov Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (31), Sidney Crosby (35)
· ·
CAR 4·PIT 1

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -142/PIT +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Pittsburgh Penguins and beat them, 5–1.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Andrei Svechnikov · CAR17:240.8665.8%53.3%17:24 TOI · 0.86 iXG · 65.8% CF · 53.3% xGF
Seth Jarvis · CAR18:180.7368.3%66.7%18:18 TOI · 0.73 iXG · 68.3% CF · 66.7% xGF
Logan Stankoven · CAR16:360.6362.1%73.2%16:36 TOI · 0.63 iXG · 62.1% CF · 73.2% xGF
Justin Brazeau · PIT11:120.6166.7%80.7%11:12 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 66.7% CF · 80.7% xGF
Ben Kindel · PIT15:420.5241.2%44.8%15:42 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 41.2% CF · 44.8% xGF
Egor Chinakhov · PIT15:360.4348.4%56.2%15:36 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 48.4% CF · 56.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Frederik Andersen · CAR18–1.947+1.2918–1 · .947 SV% · +1.29 GSAx
Stuart Skinner · PIT21–4.840-1.6421–4 · .840 SV% · -1.64 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.0%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
51.0%
P(PIT win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.0%
P(PIT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.0%
P(PIT win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at PIT?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Carolina HurricanesPittsburgh Penguins

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