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FINAL+4CAR
CAR

CAR

45-19-6

51
PIT

PIT

35-19-16

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Mar 22FinalSeriesCAR wins series 3-1VegasCAR -142

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Pittsburgh Penguins and beat them, 5–1.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

CAR
Seth Jarvis

Seth Jarvis

C · #24

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

PIT
Egor Chinakhov

Egor Chinakhov

RW · #59

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
1
CAR45-19-6PIT35-19-16
CAR

CAR

45-19-6

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PIT

PIT

35-19-16

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

14

Season series

CAR wins series 3-1

Dec 31CARCAR1@PITPIT5
Mar 10PITPIT4@CARCAR5
Mar 18PITPIT5@CARCAR6
Mar 22CARCAR5@PITPIT1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CARCAR-14259%
PITPIT+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat PIT 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CAR1315
PIT0011

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · PIT won 0

1
0

1

3
0

2

1
1

3

CAR
PIT

Play-by-play · 353 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CAR 5·PIT 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CAR 5·PIT 1

  3. 3rd·19:29

    Sidney Crosby Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    CAR 5·PIT 1

  4. 3rd·19:22

    Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Mark Jankowski

    ·

    CAR 5·PIT 1

  5. 3rd·19:22

    Mike Reilly Tripping against Noel Acciari

    ·

    CAR 5·PIT 1

  6. 3rd·19:16

    Elmer Soderblom hit Alexander Nikishin

    ·

    CAR 5·PIT 1

  7. 3rd·19:11

    Noel Acciari Tip-In saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    CAR 5·PIT 1

  8. 3rd·18:56

    Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Connor Dewar

    ·

    CAR 5·PIT 1

  9. 3rd·18:56

    Mark Jankowski Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (24), Logan Stankoven (19)

    · ·

    CAR 5·PIT 1

  10. 3rd·18:50

    Giveaway by Erik Karlsson

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  11. 3rd·18:41

    Jackson Blake Wrist Shot Wide Left

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  12. 3rd·18:28

    Frederik Andersen shot blocked by Egor Chinakhov

    ·

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  13. 3rd·18:11

    Ben Kindel Tip-In saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  14. 3rd·18:11

    Justin Brazeau Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  15. 3rd·17:53

    Ben Kindel hit Jalen Chatfield

    ·

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  16. 3rd·17:35

    Giveaway by Sebastian Aho

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  17. 3rd·17:30

    Egor Chinakhov Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  18. 3rd·17:02

    Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Erik Karlsson

    ·

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  19. 3rd·16:56

    Andrei Svechnikov Wrist Shot Wide Right

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  20. 3rd·16:55

    Andrei Svechnikov Backhand Hit Right Post

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  21. 3rd·16:42

    Giveaway by Frederik Andersen

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  22. 3rd·15:50

    Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  23. 3rd·15:50

    Goalie Stopped

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  24. 3rd·15:48

    Ben Kindel Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  25. 3rd·15:28

    Giveaway by Ryan Graves

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  26. 3rd·15:26

    Connor Clifton hit Eric Robinson

    ·

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  27. 3rd·15:12

    Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Mark Jankowski

    ·

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  28. 3rd·15:12

    Icing

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  29. 3rd·14:56

    Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Mark Jankowski

    ·

    CAR 4·PIT 1

  30. 3rd·14:56

    Egor Chinakhov Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (31), Sidney Crosby (35)

    · ·

    CAR 4·PIT 1

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

26

Shots

19

60.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

14

34

Faceoffs W

36

14

Blocks

12

15

Giveaways

18

6

Takeaways

3

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -142/PIT +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
    SHOT MPH94.799
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Erik KarlssonPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.897
  • Taylor HallCAR · LW
    BURSTS4696
  • Sebastian AhoCAR · C
    DIST MI44.795

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR