Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at UTA?

The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1UTA

28-25-17

UTA

37-28-6

NHLSun, Mar 22FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasUTAH -175

LA · top performer

Quinton Byfield

RW · #55

2Points

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

Lawson Crouse

LW · #67

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ArmiaRW · #40	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	8:15
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	21:01
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	-1	0	4	1	0	6:30
M. JosephRW · #17	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	12:17
A. KempeRW · #9	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:21
A. KopitarC · #11	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	20:10
A. LaferriereRW · #14	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	20:48
S. LaughtonC · #21	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	14:53
T. MooreLW · #12	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	20:04
A. PanarinLW · #10	1	0	0	4	1	1	0	20:58
A. TurcotteC · #15	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	6:51
J. WrightRW · #53	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	13:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	0	0	1	4	1	2	24:18
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	13:56
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	0	2	6	0	3	0	20:44
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	1	0	1	3	0	0	27:51
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	-3	1	1	1	0	12:59
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	3	1	1	1	0	20:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KuemperG · #35	34	4	30	.882	61:46

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	14:38
L. CooleyC · #92	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	16:22
L. CrouseLW · #67	2	1	1	5	3	2	0	17:41
D. GuentherRW · #11	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	15:29
B. HaytonC · #27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:29
C. KellerRW · #9	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	16:44
A. KerfootC · #15	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	12:30
J. McBainC · #22	0	0	0	3	9	0	0	14:31
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	14:20
N. SchmaltzC · #8	2	0	1	7	2	1	0	15:59
K. StenlundC · #82	0	2	2	1	1	2	0	15:11
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	12:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	-1	3	0	1	2	19:22
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	20:12
J. MarinoD · #6	0	1	0	1	0	3	0	23:17
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:26
M. SergachevD · #98	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	23:35
M. WeegarD · #52	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	21:20

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	36	3	33	.917	61:46

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 9

LA4@

UTA2

Mar 23

LA3@

UTA4today

Mar 29

UTA6@

LA2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA+14541%

UTA-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat LA 4-3. L. Crouse led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
LA	2	0	1	0	3
UTA	2	1	0	1	4

Period scoring

LA won 1 · UTA won 2

UTA

Play-by-play · 369 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:46
Game End
LA 3·UTA 4
OT·1:46
End of OT
LA 3·UTA 4
OT·1:46
Nick Schmaltz Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (36), Kevin Stenlund (14)
· ·
LA 3·UTA 4
OT·1:29
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
LA 3·UTA 3
OT·1:29
Puck Frozen - Goalie
LA 3·UTA 3
OT·1:17
Alex Laferriere Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
LA 3·UTA 3
OT·0:31
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Barrett Hayton
·
LA 3·UTA 3
OT·0:31
Off-side
LA 3·UTA 3
OT·0:00
Quinton Byfield faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
LA 3·UTA 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·19:59
Artemi Panarin Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·19:39
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·19:39
Puck in Netting
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·19:37
Mikey Anderson shot blocked by Logan Cooley
·
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·19:32
Alex Laferriere hit Ian Cole
·
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·19:20
Giveaway by MacKenzie Weegar
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·19:18
Quinton Byfield hit MacKenzie Weegar
·
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·19:07
Quinton Byfield faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·19:07
Goalie Stopped
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·19:05
MacKenzie Weegar Snap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·19:00
Takeaway by Barrett Hayton
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·18:47
Artemi Panarin Snap Shot High and Wide Left
·
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·18:40
Nick Schmaltz shot blocked by Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·18:17
Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·18:17
Icing
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·18:10
Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·18:10
Icing
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·17:29
Giveaway by Logan Cooley
LA 3·UTA 3
3rd·16:50
Dylan Guenther hit Mikey Anderson
·
LA 3·UTA 3

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA +145/UTA -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth held off Los Angeles Kings, 4–3 in overtime.

LA +1.5 cashed (UTA won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.4%

ensemble · UTA favored

Elo Static
64.4%
P(UTA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.4%
P(UTA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.4%
P(UTA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-175

Close price

-175

Open no-vig

60.9%

Close no-vig

60.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at UTA?: The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Los Angeles KingsUtah Mammoth

Elsewhere in the NHL