Mar 19, 26sim 99
281
1(H)6
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1UTA
LA
28-25-17
34
UTA
37-28-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
tah Mammoth held off Los Angeles Kings, 4–3 in overtime.
LA +1.5 cashed (UTA won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Quinton Byfield
RW · #55
2Points
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
UTA · top performer
Lawson Crouse
LW · #67
3Points
2
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Los Angeles Kings at Utah Mammoth · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final / OT
LA28-25-17
34
UTA37-28-6
LA28-25-17UTA37-28-6
LA
28-25-17
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
UTA
37-28-6
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
2
PIM
2
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Dec 9LA4@UTA2
LA4@UTA2Mar 23LA3@UTA4today
LA3@UTA4todayMar 29UTA6@LA2
UTA6@LA2Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
UTA -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
LA+14541%UTA-17564%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
UTA beat LA 4-3.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| UTA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Period scoring
LA won 1 · UTA won 2
2
2
1
0
1
2
1
0
3
0
1
OT
LA
UTA
Play-by-play · 369 plays
period
event
player
- OT·1:46
Game End
LA 3·UTA 4
- OT·1:46
End of OT
LA 3·UTA 4
- OT·1:46
Nick Schmaltz Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (36), Kevin Stenlund (14)
· ·
LA 3·UTA 4
- OT·1:29
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
LA 3·UTA 3
- OT·1:29
Puck Frozen - Goalie
LA 3·UTA 3
- OT·1:17
Alex Laferriere Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
LA 3·UTA 3
- OT·0:31
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Barrett Hayton
·
LA 3·UTA 3
- OT·0:31
Off-side
LA 3·UTA 3
- OT·0:00
Quinton Byfield faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
LA 3·UTA 3
- OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·19:59
Artemi Panarin Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·19:39
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·19:39
Puck in Netting
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·19:37
Mikey Anderson shot blocked by Logan Cooley
·
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·19:32
Alex Laferriere hit Ian Cole
·
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·19:20
Giveaway by MacKenzie Weegar
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·19:18
Quinton Byfield hit MacKenzie Weegar
·
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·19:07
Quinton Byfield faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·19:07
Goalie Stopped
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·19:05
MacKenzie Weegar Snap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·19:00
Takeaway by Barrett Hayton
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·18:47
Artemi Panarin Snap Shot High and Wide Left
·
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·18:40
Nick Schmaltz shot blocked by Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·18:17
Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·18:17
Icing
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·18:10
Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·18:10
Icing
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·17:29
Giveaway by Logan Cooley
LA 3·UTA 3
- 3rd·16:50
Dylan Guenther hit Mikey Anderson
·
LA 3·UTA 3
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
UTA
Home
36
Shots
34
0.0
PCT
0.0
2
PIM
2
34
Faceoffs W
28
14
Blocks
20
16
Giveaways
16
5
Takeaways
7
Betting line
UTA -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA +145/UTA -175
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · UTA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-175
Close price
-175
Open no-vig
60.9%
Close no-vig
60.9%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit