NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CGY

43-21-5

CGY

29-34-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Mar 22FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTB -175

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 4–3 in overtime.

CGY +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

Gage Goncalves

C · #93

1Points

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

Mikael Backlund

C · #11

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

TB43-21-5

CGY29-34-7

TB43-21-5CGY29-34-7

43-21-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

CGY

29-34-7

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 27

CGY1@

TB5

Mar 23

TB3@

CGY4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-17564%

CGY+14541%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat TB 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
TB	1	1	1	0	3
CGY	2	1	0	1	4

Period scoring

TB won 1 · CGY won 2

CGY

Play-by-play · 311 plays

period

event

player

OT·0:26
Game End
TB 3·CGY 4
OT·0:26
End of OT
TB 3·CGY 4
OT·0:26
Ryan Strome Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Gridin (8), Kevin Bahl (13)
· ·
TB 3·CGY 4
OT·0:00
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
TB 3·CGY 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·19:43
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Joel Farabee
·
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·19:41
Brayden Point faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·19:41
Puck in Crowd
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·18:55
Kevin Bahl Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·18:55
Giveaway by Emil Lilleberg
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·18:30
Zach Whitecloud hit Brandon Hagel
·
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·18:25
Takeaway by Anthony Cirelli
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·17:54
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Ryan Strome
·
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·17:54
Off-side
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·17:41
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·17:41
Puck Frozen - Goalie
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·17:35
Takeaway by Yanni Gourde
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·15:40
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·15:40
Pontus Holmberg Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (17)
·
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·15:27
Joel Farabee hit Zemgus Girgensons
·
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·15:02
Nikita Kucherov Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·14:55
J.J. Moser Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·14:38
Kevin Bahl hit Brandon Hagel
·
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·14:35
Giveaway by Ryan Strome
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·14:04
Blake Coleman Slap Shot saved by Jonas Johansson
·
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·13:04
Matt Coronato Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·12:57
Giveaway by Corey Perry
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·12:47
Nick Paul faceoff won against Matt Coronato
·
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·12:47
Goalie Stopped
TB 2·CGY 3

Team stats

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -175/CGY +145

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Mikael BacklundCGY · C
SHOT MPH93.594
Adam KlapkaCGY · RW
SHOT MPH92.691
Joel FarabeeCGY · LW
DIST MI215.486
Matt CoronatoCGY · RW
DIST MI214.185
Morgan FrostCGY · C
BURSTS14285

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CGY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

CGY vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Jake GuentzelTB
2.8± 1.5high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Blake ColemanCGY
0.4± 0.7high
Morgan FrostCGY
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands