Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at CGY?

The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CGY

43-21-5

CGY

29-34-7

NHLSun, Mar 22FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTB -175

TB · top performer

Darren Raddysh

D · #43

1Points

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

Victor Olofsson

LW · #95

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	9:55
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	-2	4	1	0	0	17:56
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	14:34
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	13:53
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	15:38
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	19:34
B. HagelLW · #38	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	19:13
P. HolmbergRW · #29	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	14:40
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	20:57
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	10:18
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	10:21
B. PointC · #21	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	17:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	1	0	3	1	0	16:04
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	19:19
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	18:23
R. McDonaghD · #27	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:11
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	1	-2	1	0	2	0	23:08
D. RaddyshD · #43	1	0	-1	5	0	0	0	24:39

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JohanssonG · #31	29	4	25	.862	59:39

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	1	0	-1	2	0	1	0	18:44
B. ColemanLW · #20	0	1	-1	2	1	0	0	18:01
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	14:54
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	17:47
M. FrostC · #16	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:21
M. GridinRW · #92	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	13:50
T. GrossC · #39	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8:07
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	10:20
V. OlofssonLW · #95	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:16
M. PospisilC · #76	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	10:34
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:46
R. StromeC · #22	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:49

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	1	2	0	4	0	0	22:46
H. BrzustewiczD · #48	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	20:20
J. HanleyD · #44	0	0	-2	3	0	2	0	15:36
O. MaattaD · #3	0	0	0	2	0	6	0	23:55
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	15:09
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	1	1	4	3	4	0	23:03

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CooleyG · #1	35	3	32	.914	60:26

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 27

CGY1@

TB5

Mar 23

TB3@

CGY4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-17564%

CGY+14541%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 27 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat TB 4-3. V. Olofsson led the way — 1 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
TB	1	1	1	0	3
CGY	2	1	0	1	4

Period scoring

TB won 1 · CGY won 2

CGY

Play-by-play · 311 plays

period

event

player

OT·0:26
Game End
TB 3·CGY 4
OT·0:26
End of OT
TB 3·CGY 4
OT·0:26
Ryan Strome Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Gridin (8), Kevin Bahl (13)
· ·
TB 3·CGY 4
OT·0:00
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
TB 3·CGY 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·19:43
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Joel Farabee
·
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·19:41
Brayden Point faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·19:41
Puck in Crowd
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·18:55
Kevin Bahl Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·18:55
Giveaway by Emil Lilleberg
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·18:30
Zach Whitecloud hit Brandon Hagel
·
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·18:25
Takeaway by Anthony Cirelli
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·17:54
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Ryan Strome
·
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·17:54
Off-side
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·17:41
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·17:41
Puck Frozen - Goalie
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·17:35
Takeaway by Yanni Gourde
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·15:40
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·15:40
Pontus Holmberg Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (17)
·
TB 3·CGY 3
3rd·15:27
Joel Farabee hit Zemgus Girgensons
·
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·15:02
Nikita Kucherov Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·14:55
J.J. Moser Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·14:38
Kevin Bahl hit Brandon Hagel
·
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·14:35
Giveaway by Ryan Strome
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·14:04
Blake Coleman Slap Shot saved by Jonas Johansson
·
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·13:04
Matt Coronato Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·12:57
Giveaway by Corey Perry
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·12:47
Nick Paul faceoff won against Matt Coronato
·
TB 2·CGY 3
3rd·12:47
Goalie Stopped
TB 2·CGY 3

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -175/CGY +145

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 4–3 in overtime.

CGY +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.9%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
41.9%
P(CGY win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
41.9%
P(CGY win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
41.9%
P(CGY win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at CGY?: The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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