Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at CHI?

The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NSH

NSH

33-28-9

CHI

26-31-13

NHLSun, Mar 22FinalSeriesNSH wins series 3-1VegasNSH -115

NSH · top performer

Filip Forsberg

LW · #9

3Points

—

SOG

CHI · top performer

Connor Bedard

C · #98

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	15:25
F. ForsbergLW · #9	2	1	2	3	3	1	0	18:54
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	20:06
T. JostC · #17	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:05
J. KemellRW · #25	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	7:59
Z. L'HeureuxLW · #68	0	0	0	5	6	0	2	15:12
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	17:05
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	21:15
R. SchaeferLW · #49	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	8:25
S. StamkosC · #91	1	0	0	4	3	0	0	16:04
F. SvechkovC · #40	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:49
M. WoodRW · #71	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	12:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. HagueD · #41	0	0	-1	2	1	0	2	20:15
R. JosiD · #59	0	1	0	0	0	2	2	27:27
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	16:23
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	24:31
R. UfkoD · #85	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	13:17
A. WilsbyD · #83	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:22

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SarosG · #74	29	2	27	.931	61:01

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	1	0	-1	3	1	0	2	20:46
T. BertuzziLW · #59	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	18:22
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	0	-2	4	0	1	0	18:22
R. DonatoC · #8	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:13
R. GreeneC · #20	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	18:08
S. LaffertyC · #24	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	7:15
N. LardisLW · #76	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:28
I. MikheyevRW · #95	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:18
F. NazarC · #91	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:30
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:30
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:28
D. ToninatoC · #25	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	0	-1	4	2	1	2	18:03
M. GrzelcykD · #48	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1:52
W. KaiserD · #44	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	23:02
A. LevshunovD · #55	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	24:27
S. RinzelD · #6	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	21:44
A. VlasicD · #72	0	1	0	2	2	1	0	26:34

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KnightG · #30	33	3	30	.909	60:56

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NSH wins series 3-1

Nov 29

NSH4@

CHI3

Jan 11

CHI3@

NSH0

Feb 27

CHI2@

NSH4

Mar 22

NSH3@

CHI2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NSH -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSH-11553%

CHI-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat CHI 3-2. F. Forsberg led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
NSH	0	1	1	1	3
CHI	0	2	0	0	2

Period scoring

NSH won 2 · CHI won 1

NSH

CHI

Play-by-play · 304 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:05
Game End
NSH 3·CHI 2
OT·1:05
End of OT
NSH 3·CHI 2
OT·1:05
Filip Forsberg Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: none
NSH 3·CHI 2
OT·1:01
Takeaway by Filip Forsberg
NSH 2·CHI 2
OT·0:56
Filip Forsberg Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
NSH 2·CHI 2
OT·0:45
Connor Bedard Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
NSH 2·CHI 2
OT·0:23
Takeaway by Andre Burakovsky
NSH 2·CHI 2
OT·0:00
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Connor Bedard
·
NSH 2·CHI 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·19:19
Frank Nazar faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·19:19
Puck in Benches
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·19:14
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Frank Nazar
·
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·19:14
Puck in Netting
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·19:12
Andre Burakovsky Snap Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·18:47
Ryan Greene Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·18:36
Giveaway by Filip Forsberg
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·17:18
Tyler Bertuzzi shot blocked by Nick Lardis
·
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·16:28
Takeaway by Jonathan Marchessault
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·16:20
Giveaway by Brady Skjei
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·16:06
Wyatt Kaiser shot blocked by Roman Josi
·
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·16:02
Ryan Greene faceoff won against Erik Haula
·
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·16:02
Puck in Benches
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·15:09
Tyler Bertuzzi Batted saved by Juuse Saros
·
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·14:41
Giveaway by Connor Bedard
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·14:31
Frank Nazar Wrist Shot Short
·
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·13:58
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Ryan Greene
·
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·13:58
Nicolas Hague Tripping against Connor Bedard
·
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·13:55
Andre Burakovsky Batted Wide Left
·
NSH 2·CHI 2
3rd·13:53
Ryan Greene shot blocked by Ryan Ufko
·
NSH 2·CHI 2

Betting line

NSH -1.5·O/U 5.5·NSH -115/CHI -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators went into Chicago Blackhawks and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

CHI +1.5 cashed (NSH won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

#848274215:240.8545.5%58.4%15:24 TOI · 0.85 iXG · 45.5% CF · 58.4% xGF
Connor Bedard · CHI21:000.6151.2%57.5%21:00 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 51.2% CF · 57.5% xGF
Steven Stamkos · NSH16:060.6057.1%68.0%16:06 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 57.1% CF · 68.0% xGF
Matthew Wood · NSH13:000.5964.3%72.4%13:00 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 64.3% CF · 72.4% xGF
Andre Burakovsky · OTT18:420.5551.2%55.2%18:42 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 51.2% CF · 55.2% xGF
Filip Forsberg · NSH19:000.5061.3%65.9%19:00 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 61.3% CF · 65.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Spencer Knight · CHI30–3.909+1.3730–3 · .909 SV% · +1.37 GSAx
Juuse Saros · NSH27–2.931+0.9927–2 · .931 SV% · +0.99 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
51.2%
P(CHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.2%
P(CHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.2%
P(CHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at CHI?: The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Nashville PredatorsChicago Blackhawks

Elsewhere in the NHL