Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at NYI?

The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYI

CBJ

37-22-11

NYI

40-26-5

NHLSun, Mar 22FinalSeriesNYI win series 3-1VegasCBJ -125

CBJ · top performer

Cole Sillinger

C · #4

0Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Bo Horvat

C · #14

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	17:02
A. FantilliC · #19	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	20:38
C. GarlandRW · #83	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:34
D. HeinenLW · #43	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:34
B. JennerC · #38	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	13:34
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:59
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	12:21
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	0	0	3	3	0	2	21:14
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	19:14
S. MonahanC · #23	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:30
M. OlivierRW · #24	0	0	-1	2	4	1	0	12:27
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	-1	5	2	0	2	14:50

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	13:48
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	15:21
D. MateychukD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	13:48
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	22:32
D. SeversonD · #78	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	23:38
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	29:01

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	22	1	21	.955	57:55

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:39
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	13:24
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:15
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	17:32
S. HolmstromRW · #92	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:27
B. HorvatC · #14	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	19:55
A. LeeLW · #27	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	18:58
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	12:27
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	15:19
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:11
C. RitchieC · #64	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:54
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	16:35

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BoqvistD · #34	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	12:03
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	22:23
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:25
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	20:55
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	0	1	3	2	1	0	26:43
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	18:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	26	0	26	1.000	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYI win series 3-1

Nov 2

CBJ2@

NYI3

Dec 28

NYI2@

CBJ4

Feb 28

NYI4@

CBJ3

Mar 22

CBJ0@

NYI1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJ-12556%

NYI+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 59 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat CBJ 1-0. B. Horvat led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CBJ	0	0	0	0
NYI	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

CBJ won 0 · NYI won 1

CBJ

NYI

Play-by-play · 295 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·19:52
Giveaway by Matthew Schaefer
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·19:39
Giveaway by Matthew Schaefer
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·19:18
Zach Werenski Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·19:15
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·19:15
Timeout - Visitor
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·19:15
Puck in Benches
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·18:42
Adam Fantilli shot blocked by Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·18:24
Adam Pelech hit Charlie Coyle
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·18:05
Zach Werenski shot blocked by Adam Pelech
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·17:59
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·17:59
Goalie Stopped
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·17:58
Charlie Coyle Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·17:55
Adam Fantilli faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·17:55
Goalie Stopped
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·17:51
Kent Johnson Tip-In saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·17:35
Cole Sillinger hit Tony DeAngelo
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·17:05
Adam Fantilli faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·17:05
Goalie Stopped
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·17:03
Zach Werenski Slap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·17:01
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Adam Fantilli
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·17:01
Goalie Stopped
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·16:58
Kirill Marchenko Slap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·16:53
Damon Severson Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·16:47
Cole Sillinger Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·16:46
Cole Sillinger Tip-In saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·16:07
Simon Holmstrom hit Mason Marchment
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·16:02
Jean-Gabriel Pageau hit Kirill Marchenko
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1
3rd·15:43
Mathieu Olivier shot blocked by Mason Marchment
·
CBJ 0·NYI 1

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·CBJ -125/NYI +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders held off Columbus Blue Jackets, 1–0.

NYI +1.5 cashed (CBJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Brayden Schenn · NYI16:420.7369.2%73.9%16:42 TOI · 0.73 iXG · 69.2% CF · 73.9% xGF
Mathieu Olivier · CBJ12:240.3858.1%66.3%12:24 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 58.1% CF · 66.3% xGF
Cole Sillinger · CBJ15:000.3276.7%82.2%15:00 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 76.7% CF · 82.2% xGF
Bo Horvat · NYI20:000.3147.1%45.9%20:00 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 47.1% CF · 45.9% xGF
Simon Holmstrom · NYI17:360.2972.7%65.2%17:36 TOI · 0.29 iXG · 72.7% CF · 65.2% xGF
Kirill Marchenko · CBJ21:240.2365.6%74.0%21:24 TOI · 0.23 iXG · 65.6% CF · 74.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Ilya Sorokin · NYI26–01.000+2.4926–0 · 1.000 SV% · +2.49 GSAx
Jet Greaves · CBJ21–1.955+0.9821–1 · .955 SV% · +0.98 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.0%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
57.0%
P(NYI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.0%
P(NYI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.0%
P(NYI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at NYI?: The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Columbus Blue JacketsNew York Islanders

Elsewhere in the NHL