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FINAL+4FLA
FLA

FLA

34-31-3

40
EDM

EDM

34-27-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 19FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasEDM -162

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers went into Edmonton Oilers and beat them, 4–0.

FLA +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FLA · top performer

FLA
Sam Bennett

Sam Bennett

C · #9

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

EDM
Jason Dickinson

Jason Dickinson

C · #16

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
0
FLA34-31-3EDM34-27-9
FLA

FLA

34-31-3

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
EDM

EDM

34-27-9

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 23EDMEDM6@FLAFLA3
Mar 20FLAFLA4@EDMEDM0today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLAFLA+13642%
EDMEDM-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat EDM 4-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
FLA2114
EDM0000

Period scoring

FLA won 3 · EDM won 0

2
0

1

1
0

2

1
0

3

FLA
EDM

Play-by-play · 265 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  3. 3rd·19:45

    Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Jason Dickinson

    ·

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  4. 3rd·19:45

    Puck in Netting

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  5. 3rd·18:50

    Luke Kunin Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  6. 3rd·18:24

    Darnell Nurse hit A.J. Greer

    ·

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  7. 3rd·18:20

    Darnell Nurse hit Evan Rodrigues

    ·

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  8. 3rd·18:17

    A.J. Greer Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  9. 3rd·18:08

    Jesper Boqvist Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  10. 3rd·17:56

    Evan Rodrigues Snap Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  11. 3rd·17:51

    Giveaway by Vasily Podkolzin

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  12. 3rd·17:33

    Giveaway by Cole Reinhardt

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  13. 3rd·17:07

    Jack Roslovic hit Tomas Nosek

    ·

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  14. 3rd·16:51

    Tomas Nosek faceoff won against Jason Dickinson

    ·

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  15. 3rd·16:51

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  16. 3rd·15:45

    Takeaway by Connor Murphy

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  17. 3rd·15:40

    Tomas Nosek hit Connor Murphy

    ·

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  18. 3rd·15:37

    Max Jones Snap Shot Wide Left

    · ·

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  19. 3rd·15:23

    Josh Samanski faceoff won against Evan Rodrigues

    ·

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  20. 3rd·15:23

    Player Equipment

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  21. 3rd·15:23

    Carter Verhaeghe Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (14), Sam Bennett (28)

    · ·

    FLA 4·EDM 0

  22. 3rd·15:19

    Carter Verhaeghe faceoff won against Jason Dickinson

    ·

    FLA 3·EDM 0

  23. 3rd·15:19

    Icing

    FLA 3·EDM 0

  24. 3rd·14:42

    Matt Savoie Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    FLA 3·EDM 0

  25. 3rd·14:30

    Niko Mikkola Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    FLA 3·EDM 0

  26. 3rd·14:27

    Takeaway by Matt Savoie

    FLA 3·EDM 0

  27. 3rd·14:00

    Giveaway by Luke Kunin

    FLA 3·EDM 0

  28. 3rd·13:41

    Evan Bouchard Slap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky

    ·

    FLA 3·EDM 0

  29. 3rd·12:46

    Giveaway by Dmitry Kulikov

    FLA 3·EDM 0

  30. 3rd·12:43

    Giveaway by Max Jones

    ·

    FLA 3·EDM 0

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

23

Shots

21

50.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

4

16

Faceoffs W

19

9

Blocks

14

17

Giveaways

16

3

Takeaways

7

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA +136/EDM -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498
  • Gustav ForslingFLA · D
    SHOT MPH100.497
  • Evan BouchardEDM · D
    SHOT MPH97.395
  • Sam BennettFLA · C
    DIST MI239.693

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · EDM favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR