Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at NSH?

The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NSH

SEA

31-28-9

NSH

31-28-9

NHLThu, Mar 19FinalSeriesNSH wins series 2-1VegasNSH -120

SEA · top performer

Frederick Gaudreau

C · #89

1Points

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

Filip Forsberg

LW · #9

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	21:13
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	14:14
J. EberleRW · #7	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	20:02
F. GaudreauC · #89	1	0	0	2	3	1	0	17:16
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:19
J. McCannLW · #19	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	17:00
B. McMannC · #74	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	18:17
J. MelansonRW · #63	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4:14
B. MeyersC · #59	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:18
J. NymanRW · #38	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	6:00
C. StephensonC · #9	0	1	0	1	1	2	0	20:38
S. WrightC · #51	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:15

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	-2	3	1	3	0	23:25
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	17:36
A. LarssonD · #6	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	20:39
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	18:57
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	22:58
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	1	0	3	1	4	13:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DaccordG · #35	27	2	25	.926	58:14

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:51
F. ForsbergLW · #9	1	2	1	2	0	0	0	18:28
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	0	1	5	1	0	2	17:28
T. JostC · #17	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:08
Z. L'HeureuxLW · #68	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	12:34
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	14:04
R. O'ReillyC · #90	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	21:42
R. SchaeferLW · #49	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	8:35
S. StamkosC · #91	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	19:38
F. SvechkovC · #40	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:19
O. WiesblattC · #89	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	9:25
M. WoodRW · #71	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:09

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	12:55
N. HagueD · #41	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	18:21
R. JosiD · #59	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	25:50
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:05
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	26:32
R. UfkoD · #85	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	13:58

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AnnunenG · #29	26	1	25	.962	59:58

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NSH wins series 2-1

Jan 2

NSH1@

SEA4

Mar 11

NSH4@

SEA2

Mar 20

SEA1@

NSH3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA+10050%

NSH-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 54 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat SEA 3-1. F. Forsberg led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SEA	1	0	0	1
NSH	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

SEA won 0 · NSH won 2

SEA

NSH

Play-by-play · 314 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SEA 1·NSH 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SEA 1·NSH 3
3rd·19:58
Chandler Stephenson Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
SEA 1·NSH 3
3rd·19:51
Erik Haula Backhand Wide Right
SEA 1·NSH 3
3rd·19:37
Chandler Stephenson Tip-In Wide Left
·
SEA 1·NSH 3
3rd·19:32
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Erik Haula
·
SEA 1·NSH 3
3rd·19:32
Puck Frozen - Goalie
SEA 1·NSH 3
3rd·19:29
Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
SEA 1·NSH 3
3rd·19:29
Timeout - Visitor
SEA 1·NSH 3
3rd·19:29
Puck Frozen - Skater
SEA 1·NSH 3
3rd·18:47
Ryan O'Reilly Backhand Wide Right
SEA 1·NSH 3
3rd·18:42
Giveaway by Brandon Montour
SEA 1·NSH 3
3rd·18:23
Jonathan Marchessault hit Ryker Evans
·
SEA 1·NSH 3
3rd·18:10
Erik Haula faceoff won against Shane Wright
·
SEA 1·NSH 3
3rd·18:10
Filip Forsberg Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: none
SEA 1·NSH 3
3rd·18:08
Takeaway by Filip Forsberg
SEA 1·NSH 2
3rd·17:49
Luke Evangelista shot blocked by Chandler Stephenson
·
SEA 1·NSH 2
3rd·17:42
Giveaway by Steven Stamkos
SEA 1·NSH 2
3rd·17:21
Matty Beniers Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SEA 1·NSH 2
3rd·17:07
Zachary L'Heureux hit Ryan Lindgren
·
SEA 1·NSH 2
3rd·15:52
Giveaway by Kaapo Kakko
SEA 1·NSH 2
3rd·15:42
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Matthew Wood
·
SEA 1·NSH 2
3rd·15:42
Goalie Stopped
SEA 1·NSH 2
3rd·15:39
Ryan O'Reilly Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
SEA 1·NSH 2
3rd·15:33
Giveaway by Bobby McMann
SEA 1·NSH 2
3rd·15:18
Jordan Eberle Tip-In saved by Justus Annunen
·
SEA 1·NSH 2
3rd·15:05
Ryker Evans Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen
·
SEA 1·NSH 2
3rd·14:51
Ryker Evans hit Luke Evangelista
·
SEA 1·NSH 2
3rd·14:45
Matty Beniers faceoff won against Steven Stamkos
·
SEA 1·NSH 2
3rd·14:45
TV Timeout
SEA 1·NSH 2

Betting line

NSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·SEA +100/NSH -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators held off Seattle Kraken, 3–1.

NSH -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.1%

ensemble · NSH favored

Elo Static
57.1%
P(NSH win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.1%
P(NSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.1%
P(NSH win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at NSH?: The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Seattle KrakenNashville Predators

Elsewhere in the NHL