Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CHI

CHI

26-30-12

MIN

39-19-12

NHLThu, Mar 19FinalSeriesMIN wins series 3-1VegasMIN -198

CHI · top performer

Connor Bedard

C · #98

1Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Nico Sturm

C · #78

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	1	0	1	6	1	1	0	23:54
T. BertuzziLW · #59	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	19:56
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	20:03
R. DonatoC · #8	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	13:32
R. GreeneC · #20	0	0	-1	1	1	1	2	19:51
N. LardisLW · #76	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	8:37
A. MangiapaneLW · #26	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	12:24
I. MikheyevRW · #95	1	0	1	2	0	0	2	15:10
F. NazarC · #91	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	19:34
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:14
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:07

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	18:01
E. Del MastroD · #38	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	6:48
M. GrzelcykD · #48	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	12:53
W. KaiserD · #44	0	0	1	2	0	1	4	18:07
A. LevshunovD · #55	0	0	1	0	3	1	0	20:21
S. RinzelD · #6	0	0	-1	3	1	0	2	16:57
A. VlasicD · #72	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	21:46

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KnightG · #30	29	1	28	.966	59:45

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	23:25
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:17
N. FolignoLW · #71	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	12:10
H. HaightC · #37	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	10:51
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	0	-1	4	1	0	6	19:17
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	16:24
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	-1	0	2	1	4	12:43
N. SturmC · #78	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	11:12
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	0	-1	3	3	1	0	17:48
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	1	1	5	0	4	10:05
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:49
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	19:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BogosianD · #24	0	0	1	1	4	0	2	9:28
J. BrodinD · #25	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	18:37
B. FaberD · #7	0	1	-1	1	0	4	0	23:01
Q. HughesD · #43	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	28:06
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	13:37
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	22:16

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WallstedtG · #30	26	2	24	.923	57:57

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

MIN wins series 3-1

Nov 27

MIN4@

CHI3

Jan 28

CHI3@

MIN4

Mar 17

MIN4@

CHI3

Mar 19

CHI2@

MIN1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+16438%

MIN-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat MIN 2-1. C. Bedard led the way — 1 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CHI	1	1	0	2
MIN	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

CHI won 1 · MIN won 0

CHI

MIN

Play-by-play · 316 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·19:57
Mats Zuccarello Tip-In saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·19:52
Matt Boldy Backhand Wide Right
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·19:47
Quinn Hughes shot blocked by Louis Crevier
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·19:21
Connor Bedard faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·19:21
Icing
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·19:17
Louis Crevier Snap Shot Wide Left
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·19:15
Quinn Hughes shot blocked by Louis Crevier
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·18:58
Marcus Johansson Backhand Wide Right
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·18:56
Matt Boldy Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·18:39
Ilya Mikheyev shot blocked by Matt Boldy
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·18:28
Connor Bedard faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·18:28
Puck in Crowd
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·18:06
Mats Zuccarello shot blocked by Matt Grzelcyk
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·17:31
Connor Bedard hit Nick Foligno
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·17:30
Connor Bedard Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·16:26
Bobby Brink hit Frank Nazar
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·16:14
Andrew Mangiapane shot blocked by Jared Spurgeon
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·15:49
Ryan Greene faceoff won against Danila Yurov
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·15:49
Jake Middleton Roughing against Sam Rinzel
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·15:49
Sam Rinzel Roughing against Jake Middleton
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·15:49
Ryan Donato Slashing against Jesper Wallstedt
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·15:49
Michael McCarron Cross-checking against Ryan Donato
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·15:49
Goalie Stopped
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·15:47
Sam Rinzel Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·15:35
Ryan Donato faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·15:35
Puck in Netting
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·15:33
Connor Bedard shot blocked by Michael McCarron
·
CHI 2·MIN 1
3rd·15:17
Connor Bedard Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CHI 2·MIN 1

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 5.5·CHI +164/MIN -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hicago Blackhawks went into Minnesota Wild and beat them, 2–1.

CHI +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Connor Bedard · CHI24:000.8461.4%66.9%24:00 TOI · 0.84 iXG · 61.4% CF · 66.9% xGF
Ryan Hartman · MIN19:180.5167.4%58.9%19:18 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 67.4% CF · 58.9% xGF
Frank Nazar · CHI19:240.4570.7%77.9%19:24 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 70.7% CF · 77.9% xGF
Tyler Bertuzzi · CHI19:540.4275.0%83.0%19:54 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 75.0% CF · 83.0% xGF
Matt Boldy · MIN23:300.3861.0%64.7%23:30 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 61.0% CF · 64.7% xGF
Mats Zuccarello · MIN20:060.2961.2%59.5%20:06 TOI · 0.29 iXG · 61.2% CF · 59.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Spencer Knight · CHI28–1.966+0.9528–1 · .966 SV% · +0.95 GSAx
Jesper Wallstedt · MIN24–2.923+0.1724–2 · .923 SV% · +0.17 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.0%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
69.0%
P(MIN win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
69.0%
P(MIN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
69.0%
P(MIN win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-198

Close price

-198

Open no-vig

63.7%

Close no-vig

63.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Chicago BlackhawksMinnesota Wild

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