Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at VGK?

The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4UTA

UTA

36-27-6

VGK

31-24-14

NHLThu, Mar 19FinalSeriesUTA wins series 2-1VegasVGK -135

UTA · top performer

Clayton Keller

RW · #9

2Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Jack Eichel

C · #9

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	13:34
L. CooleyC · #92	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:20
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	1	2	0	1	0	5	15:04
D. GuentherRW · #11	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:53
B. HaytonC · #27	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	14:01
C. KellerRW · #9	2	0	2	6	0	0	0	14:26
A. KerfootC · #15	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	14:32
J. McBainC · #22	1	0	1	2	7	0	0	13:23
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:42
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	17:12
K. StenlundC · #82	0	1	1	2	0	1	2	16:12
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:23

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	17:39
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	15:41
J. MarinoD · #6	0	1	2	0	1	2	0	17:41
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	1	3	0	2	1	0	20:09
M. SergachevD · #98	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	22:44
M. WeegarD · #52	0	0	2	0	4	1	0	22:27

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	28	0	28	1.000	59:57

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	-1	4	4	1	0	17:57
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	10:58
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	17:07
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	11:36
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	-2	5	0	0	0	21:34
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-2	3	1	1	0	18:28
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	11:46
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:29
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	-2	4	0	0	0	21:46
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	10:52
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:19
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	-2	1	3	1	0	19:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	-1	1	0	1	2	20:17
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-1	1	0	3	0	19:28
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	13:18
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-1	0	6	0	5	17:03
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	19:57
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	22:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SchmidG · #40	14	0	14	1.000	50:02
A. HillG · #33	3	3	0	.000	8:12

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Apr 20

UTA2@

VGK4

Apr 22

UTA3@

VGK2

Apr 25

VGK2@

UTA4

Apr 28

VGK5@

UTA4

Apr 30

UTA4@

VGK5

May 2

VGK5@

UTA1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTA+11447%

VGK-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 30 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat VGK 4-0. C. Keller led the way — 2 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
UTA	3	0	1	4
VGK	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

UTA won 2 · VGK won 0

UTA

VGK

Play-by-play · 348 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
UTA 4·VGK 0
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
UTA 4·VGK 0
3rd·19:12
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Colton Sissons
·
UTA 4·VGK 0
3rd·19:12
Barrett Hayton Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (12)
·
UTA 4·VGK 0
3rd·19:02
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·19:02
Goalie Stopped
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·19:01
Pavel Dorofeyev Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·19:00
Jack Eichel Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·18:38
Shea Theodore Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·18:37
Giveaway by Mikhail Sergachev
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·18:32
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·18:32
Icing
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·18:26
Kevin Stenlund Wrist Shot Wide Right
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·18:24
Mitch Marner shot blocked by Ian Cole
·
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·18:17
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·18:17
Puck in Netting
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·18:13
Braeden Bowman Tip-In saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·17:47
Kevin Stenlund Wrist Shot Wide Left
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·17:29
Takeaway by MacKenzie Weegar
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·17:02
Nick Schmaltz Snap Shot saved by Akira Schmid
·
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·16:54
Mark Stone Slap Shot Wide Right
·
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·16:32
Giveaway by Mark Stone
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·16:01
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·16:01
Goalie Stopped
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·15:57
Mark Stone Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·15:54
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·15:54
TV Timeout
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·15:54
Video Review
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·15:54
Alexander Kerfoot Roughing against Mitch Marner
·
UTA 3·VGK 0
3rd·15:41
Pavel Dorofeyev shot blocked by MacKenzie Weegar
·
UTA 3·VGK 0

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 5.5·UTA +114/VGK -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 4–0.

UTA +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.0%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
53.0%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.0%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.0%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at VGK?: The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Utah MammothVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL