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FINAL+4UTA
UTA

UTA

36-27-6

40
VGK

VGK

31-24-14

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 19FinalSeriesUTA wins series 2-1VegasVGK -135

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 4–0.

UTA +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

UTA · top performer

UTA
Barrett Hayton

Barrett Hayton

C · #27

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

VGK
Ivan Barbashev

Ivan Barbashev

LW · #49

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Utah Mammoth at Vegas Golden Knights · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
0
UTA36-27-6VGK31-24-14
UTA

UTA

36-27-6

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VGK

VGK

31-24-14

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

PIM

9

Playoff series

Apr 20UTAUTA2@VGKVGK4
Apr 22UTAUTA3@VGKVGK2
Apr 25VGKVGK2@UTAUTA4
Apr 28VGKVGK5@UTAUTA4
Apr 30UTAUTA4@VGKVGK5
May 2VGKVGK5@UTAUTA1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAUTA+11447%
VGKVGK-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat VGK 4-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
UTA3014
VGK0000

Period scoring

UTA won 2 · VGK won 0

3
0

1

0
0

2

1
0

3

UTA
VGK

Play-by-play · 348 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    UTA 4·VGK 0

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    UTA 4·VGK 0

  3. 3rd·19:12

    Logan Cooley faceoff won against Colton Sissons

    ·

    UTA 4·VGK 0

  4. 3rd·19:12

    Barrett Hayton Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (12)

    ·

    UTA 4·VGK 0

  5. 3rd·19:02

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  6. 3rd·19:02

    Goalie Stopped

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  7. 3rd·19:01

    Pavel Dorofeyev Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  8. 3rd·19:00

    Jack Eichel Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  9. 3rd·18:38

    Shea Theodore Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  10. 3rd·18:37

    Giveaway by Mikhail Sergachev

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  11. 3rd·18:32

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  12. 3rd·18:32

    Icing

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  13. 3rd·18:26

    Kevin Stenlund Wrist Shot Wide Right

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  14. 3rd·18:24

    Mitch Marner shot blocked by Ian Cole

    ·

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  15. 3rd·18:17

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  16. 3rd·18:17

    Puck in Netting

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  17. 3rd·18:13

    Braeden Bowman Tip-In saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  18. 3rd·17:47

    Kevin Stenlund Wrist Shot Wide Left

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  19. 3rd·17:29

    Takeaway by MacKenzie Weegar

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  20. 3rd·17:02

    Nick Schmaltz Snap Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  21. 3rd·16:54

    Mark Stone Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  22. 3rd·16:32

    Giveaway by Mark Stone

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  23. 3rd·16:01

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  24. 3rd·16:01

    Goalie Stopped

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  25. 3rd·15:57

    Mark Stone Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  26. 3rd·15:54

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  27. 3rd·15:54

    TV Timeout

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  28. 3rd·15:54

    Video Review

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  29. 3rd·15:54

    Alexander Kerfoot Roughing against Mitch Marner

    ·

    UTA 3·VGK 0

  30. 3rd·15:41

    Pavel Dorofeyev shot blocked by MacKenzie Weegar

    ·

    UTA 3·VGK 0

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

18

Shots

28

0.0

PCT

0.0

9

PIM

9

36

Faceoffs W

36

9

Blocks

12

24

Giveaways

13

3

Takeaways

6

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 5.5·UTA +114/VGK -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998
  • Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
    DIST MI54.196
  • Brett HowdenVGK · C
    BURSTS4295

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · VGK favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR