NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1OTT

NYI

39-25-5

OTT

35-24-9

NHLThu, Mar 19FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasOTT -125

NYI · top performer

Brayden Schenn

C · #10

1Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Brady Tkachuk

LW · #7

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:48
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:46
A. DuclairLW · #11	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	9:51
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	19:48
S. HolmstromRW · #92	0	1	-2	2	0	0	0	18:17
B. HorvatC · #14	0	1	1	1	1	0	2	22:39
A. LeeLW · #27	0	0	-2	1	2	0	5	16:01
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	9:47
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	15:53
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	9:46
C. RitchieC · #64	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:03
B. SchennC · #10	1	0	0	3	0	0	5	11:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	22:30
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	1	-1	1	2	0	0	13:33
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	21:18
R. PulockD · #6	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:57
M. SchaeferD · #48	1	0	2	3	1	0	0	24:11
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	13:59

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	27	3	24	.889	59:54

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	20:13
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	12:23
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	0	0	3	2	2	12:37
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	1	6	3	1	2	17:14
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	-1	2	1	0	2	10:40
W. FoegeleLW · #37	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	9:26
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:29
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	16:06
S. PintoC · #12	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	19:27
T. StutzleC · #18	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:54
B. TkachukLW · #7	1	0	1	7	3	0	5	16:48
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	1	0	3	2	1	0	8:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	30:53
D. GilbertD · #6	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	9:04
T. KlevenD · #43	0	1	-1	2	3	0	0	21:06
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	12:44
J. SpenceD · #10	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	20:54
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	0	1	2	4	2	22:07

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ReimerG · #47	19	2	17	.895	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 18

NYI5@

OTT4

Mar 19

NYI2@

OTT3today

Apr 11

OTT3@

NYI0

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI+10549%

OTT-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 30 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat NYI 3-2. B. Tkachuk led the way — 1 G · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYI	0	1	1	2
OTT	0	1	2	3

Period scoring

NYI won 0 · OTT won 1

NYI

OTT

Play-by-play · 299 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:56
Ryan Pulock Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:53
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:53
Icing
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:50
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:50
Timeout - Home
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:50
Puck in Netting
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:49
Thomas Chabot Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:47
Ridly Greig faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:47
Timeout - Visitor
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:47
Brady Tkachuk Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (17), Drake Batherson (33)
· ·
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:45
Jordan Spence Slap Shot Wide Left
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·19:37
Takeaway by Tony DeAngelo
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·19:12
Giveaway by Ridly Greig
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·18:49
Ridly Greig faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·18:49
Off-side
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·18:12
Thomas Chabot Backhand Wide Left
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·17:52
Anthony Duclair hit Ridly Greig
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·17:49
Brady Tkachuk hit Ryan Pulock
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·17:46
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·17:46
Icing
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·17:38
Artem Zub shot blocked by Anthony Duclair
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·16:39
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Claude Giroux
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·16:39
Goalie Stopped
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·16:35
Lars Eller Tip-In saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·16:10
Michael Amadio Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·16:03
Giveaway by Mathew Barzal
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·15:52
Thomas Chabot Slap Shot Short
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·15:31
Takeaway by Michael Amadio
NYI 2·OTT 2

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYI +105/OTT -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off New York Islanders, 3–2.

NYI +1.5 cashed (OTT won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Brady Tkachuk · FLA17:000.9572.7%86.0%17:00 TOI · 0.95 iXG · 72.7% CF · 86.0% xGF
Dylan Cozens · OTT17:300.7173.5%81.8%17:30 TOI · 0.71 iXG · 73.5% CF · 81.8% xGF
Brayden Schenn · NYI12:120.4533.3%47.7%12:12 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 33.3% CF · 47.7% xGF
Drake Batherson · OTT12:300.3881.8%90.0%12:30 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 81.8% CF · 90.0% xGF
Casey Cizikas · NYI12:480.3853.6%60.2%12:48 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 53.6% CF · 60.2% xGF
Fabian Zetterlund · OTT8:540.2857.9%59.5%8:54 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 57.9% CF · 59.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Ilya Sorokin · NYI24–3.889-0.1324–3 · .889 SV% · -0.13 GSAx
James Reimer · OTT17–2.895-0.2317–2 · .895 SV% · -0.23 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.7%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
54.7%
P(OTT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.7%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.7%
P(OTT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

New York IslandersOttawa Senators

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