NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1OTT

NYI

39-25-5

OTT

35-24-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 19FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasOTT -125

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off New York Islanders, 3–2.

NYI +1.5 cashed (OTT won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYI · top performer

Simon Holmstrom

RW · #92

1Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Drake Batherson

RW · #19

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

NYI39-25-5

OTT35-24-9

NYI39-25-5OTT35-24-9

NYI

39-25-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

OTT

35-24-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 18

NYI5@

OTT4

Mar 19

NYI2@

OTT3today

Apr 11

OTT3@

NYI0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI+10549%

OTT-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat NYI 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYI	0	1	1	2
OTT	0	1	2	3

Period scoring

NYI won 0 · OTT won 1

NYI

OTT

Play-by-play · 299 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:56
Ryan Pulock Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:53
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:53
Icing
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:50
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:50
Timeout - Home
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:50
Puck in Netting
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:49
Thomas Chabot Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:47
Ridly Greig faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:47
Timeout - Visitor
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:47
Brady Tkachuk Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (17), Drake Batherson (33)
· ·
NYI 2·OTT 3
3rd·19:45
Jordan Spence Slap Shot Wide Left
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·19:37
Takeaway by Tony DeAngelo
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·19:12
Giveaway by Ridly Greig
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·18:49
Ridly Greig faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·18:49
Off-side
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·18:12
Thomas Chabot Backhand Wide Left
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·17:52
Anthony Duclair hit Ridly Greig
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·17:49
Brady Tkachuk hit Ryan Pulock
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·17:46
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·17:46
Icing
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·17:38
Artem Zub shot blocked by Anthony Duclair
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·16:39
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Claude Giroux
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·16:39
Goalie Stopped
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·16:35
Lars Eller Tip-In saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·16:10
Michael Amadio Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·16:03
Giveaway by Mathew Barzal
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·15:52
Thomas Chabot Slap Shot Short
·
NYI 2·OTT 2
3rd·15:31
Takeaway by Michael Amadio
NYI 2·OTT 2

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYI +105/OTT -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · C
DIST MI274.399
Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
SHOT MPH97.399
Bo HorvatNYI · C
SHOT MPH93.494

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OTT win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OTT win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OTT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.