Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at LA?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PHI

PHI

33-23-12

28-24-16

NHLThu, Mar 19FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasLA -192

PHI · top performer

Noah Cates

LW · #27

2Points

—

SOG

LA · top performer

Artemi Panarin

LW · #10

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BumpLW · #20	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	11:34
N. CatesLW · #27	1	1	2	2	0	2	2	20:27
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	22:43
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	10:44
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	2	1	3	1	0	15:00
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	-1	2	3	3	0	11:22
T. KonecnyRW · #11	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	20:15
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	2	2	1	0	0	2	17:04
O. TippettRW · #74	0	0	-1	3	2	3	2	21:17
G. WilsonLW · #10	0	0	-1	2	4	0	0	10:03
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	18:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	6:21
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	-2	1	0	3	0	23:03
N. JuulsenD · #47	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	12:19
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	2	3	0	1	1	0	21:57
T. SanheimD · #6	1	0	3	1	0	1	0	26:54
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	15:03
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	22:53

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ErssonG · #33	25	3	22	.880	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	1	0	-1	1	0	0	0	20:29
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	8:19
A. KempeRW · #9	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	22:02
A. KopitarC · #11	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	22:58
A. LaferriereRW · #14	0	1	-1	3	7	0	0	20:59
S. LaughtonC · #21	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	16:36
J. MalottLW · #39	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	8:28
T. MooreLW · #12	0	1	-1	3	1	0	0	17:08
A. PanarinLW · #10	1	1	1	4	0	0	2	26:25
A. TurcotteC · #15	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	11:08
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:12
J. WrightRW · #53	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	11:31

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	0	-2	1	0	4	0	20:24
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	16:41
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	23:45
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	0	-2	1	2	1	2	22:49
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:16
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	18:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KuemperG · #35	20	3	17	.850	64:15

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 31

LA3@

PHI2

Mar 20

PHI4@

LA3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+16038%

LA-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 32 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat LA 4-3. N. Cates led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
PHI	0	3	0	0	1	4
LA	1	1	1	0	0	3

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · LA won 2

PHI

Play-by-play · 314 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
PHI 2·LA 0
SO·0:00
End of OT
PHI 2·LA 0
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
PHI 2·LA 0
SO·0:00
Matvei Michkov Goal Wrist Shot
PHI 2·LA 0
SO·0:00
Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
PHI 2·LA 0
SO·0:00
Trevor Zegras Goal Wrist Shot
PHI 2·LA 0
SO·0:00
Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
PHI 2·LA 0
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
PHI 2·LA 0
OT·5:00
End of OT
PHI 3·LA 3
OT·4:14
Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
PHI 3·LA 3
OT·4:03
Trevor Zegras Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
PHI 3·LA 3
OT·3:58
Takeaway by Trevor Zegras
PHI 3·LA 3
OT·2:20
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 3·LA 3
OT·2:20
Off-side
PHI 3·LA 3
OT·1:13
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Trevor Zegras
·
PHI 3·LA 3
OT·1:13
Goalie Stopped
PHI 3·LA 3
OT·1:11
Noah Cates Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
PHI 3·LA 3
OT·0:47
Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
PHI 3·LA 3
OT·0:00
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 3·LA 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
PHI 3·LA 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 3·LA 3
3rd·19:55
Noah Cates shot blocked by Cody Ceci
·
PHI 3·LA 3
3rd·19:34
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
PHI 3·LA 3
3rd·19:34
Hand Pass
PHI 3·LA 3
3rd·19:20
Giveaway by Scott Laughton
PHI 3·LA 3
3rd·18:48
Joel Edmundson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
PHI 3·LA 3
3rd·18:41
Trevor Moore Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
PHI 3·LA 3
3rd·18:21
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
PHI 3·LA 3
3rd·18:21
Puck in Crowd
PHI 3·LA 3
3rd·18:19
Drew Doughty Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 3·LA 3

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +160/LA -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into Los Angeles Kings and beat them, 4–3.

PHI +1.5 cashed (LA lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.1%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
55.1%
P(LA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.1%
P(LA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.1%
P(LA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at LA?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Philadelphia FlyersLos Angeles Kings

Elsewhere in the NHL