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FINAL+1PHI
PHI

PHI

33-23-12

43
LA

LA

28-24-16

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 19FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasLA -192

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into Los Angeles Kings and beat them, 4–3.

PHI +1.5 cashed (LA lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Noah Cates

Noah Cates

LW · #27

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

LA · top performer

LA
Artemi Panarin

Artemi Panarin

LW · #10

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at Los Angeles Kings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
4
3
PHI33-23-12LA28-24-16
PHI

PHI

33-23-12

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
LA

LA

28-24-16

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 31LALA3@PHIPHI2
Mar 20PHIPHI4@LALA3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI+16038%
LALA-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat LA 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
PHI030014
LA111003

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · LA won 2

0
1

1

3
1

2

0
1

3

0
0

OT

1
0

SO

PHI
LA

Play-by-play · 314 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    PHI 2·LA 0

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    PHI 2·LA 0

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    PHI 2·LA 0

  4. SO·0:00

    Matvei Michkov Goal Wrist Shot

    PHI 2·LA 0

  5. SO·0:00

    Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    PHI 2·LA 0

  6. SO·0:00

    Trevor Zegras Goal Wrist Shot

    PHI 2·LA 0

  7. SO·0:00

    Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    PHI 2·LA 0

  8. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    PHI 2·LA 0

  9. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    PHI 3·LA 3

  10. OT·4:14

    Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    PHI 3·LA 3

  11. OT·4:03

    Trevor Zegras Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper

    ·

    PHI 3·LA 3

  12. OT·3:58

    Takeaway by Trevor Zegras

    PHI 3·LA 3

  13. OT·2:20

    Scott Laughton faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 3·LA 3

  14. OT·2:20

    Off-side

    PHI 3·LA 3

  15. OT·1:13

    Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Trevor Zegras

    ·

    PHI 3·LA 3

  16. OT·1:13

    Goalie Stopped

    PHI 3·LA 3

  17. OT·1:11

    Noah Cates Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper

    ·

    PHI 3·LA 3

  18. OT·0:47

    Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    PHI 3·LA 3

  19. OT·0:00

    Scott Laughton faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 3·LA 3

  20. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    PHI 3·LA 3

  21. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PHI 3·LA 3

  22. 3rd·19:55

    Noah Cates shot blocked by Cody Ceci

    ·

    PHI 3·LA 3

  23. 3rd·19:34

    Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    PHI 3·LA 3

  24. 3rd·19:34

    Hand Pass

    PHI 3·LA 3

  25. 3rd·19:20

    Giveaway by Scott Laughton

    PHI 3·LA 3

  26. 3rd·18:48

    Joel Edmundson Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 3·LA 3

  27. 3rd·18:41

    Trevor Moore Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    PHI 3·LA 3

  28. 3rd·18:21

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Quinton Byfield

    ·

    PHI 3·LA 3

  29. 3rd·18:21

    Puck in Crowd

    PHI 3·LA 3

  30. 3rd·18:19

    Drew Doughty Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PHI 3·LA 3

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

LA

Home

20

Shots

25

0.0

PCT

25.0

8

PIM

4

19

Faceoffs W

37

22

Blocks

17

16

Giveaways

13

7

Takeaways

3

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +160/LA -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 skaters with EDGE
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Cam YorkPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.693
  • Christian DvorakPHI · C
    BURSTS3492
  • Rasmus RistolainenPHI · D
    DIST MI33.878

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · LA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR