Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYR at CBJ?

The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CBJ

NYR

28-33-8

CBJ

36-21-11

NHLThu, Mar 19FinalSeriesCBJ win series 2-1VegasCBJ -218

NYR · top performer

Mika Zibanejad

C · #93

2Points

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

Adam Fantilli

C · #19

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodzinskiC · #22	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	6:01
J. ChmelarRW · #49	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	7:23
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	-1	3	5	0	0	13:43
A. EdstromC · #84	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	8:21
T. KartyeLW · #24	0	0	-1	1	4	0	2	11:27
A. LafreniereLW · #13	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	21:51
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	0	-2	2	2	0	0	18:37
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	19:20
T. RaddyshRW · #14	0	0	-1	1	0	3	0	13:54
C. ShearyLW · #43	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	12:45
V. TrocheckC · #16	1	0	0	2	4	1	0	21:33
M. ZibanejadC · #93	1	1	-1	3	1	0	0	23:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	14:35
A. FoxD · #23	0	1	0	1	2	0	2	22:29
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	24:57
C. MackeyD · #12	0	0	-2	0	0	1	2	13:32
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	0	-1	3	0	2	0	15:21
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	-1	1	0	3	0	21:53

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ShesterkinG · #31	36	5	31	.861	59:44

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	0	-2	1	0	0	2	23:17
A. FantilliC · #19	2	0	0	9	1	0	2	17:43
C. GarlandRW · #83	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:12
D. HeinenLW · #43	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	10:03
B. JennerC · #38	1	1	2	4	0	0	2	15:54
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	8:50
I. LundestromC · #21	1	0	2	2	0	1	0	15:15
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	1	0	3	1	0	0	17:52
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	16:05
S. MonahanC · #23	0	1	3	1	2	0	0	13:15
M. OlivierRW · #24	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	14:59
C. SillingerC · #4	0	1	0	2	1	1	2	15:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	16:27
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	1	0	0	2	2	17:35
D. MateychukD · #5	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:28
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	20:03
D. SeversonD · #78	1	0	2	4	0	1	0	24:22
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	3	2	5	0	0	0	24:09

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	25	3	22	.880	59:01

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

Shots

16.7

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CBJ win series 2-1

Nov 16

NYR2@

CBJ1

Mar 3

CBJ5@

NYR4

Mar 19

NYR3@

CBJ6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYR+18036%

CBJ-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat NYR 6-3. A. Fantilli led the way — 2 G · 9 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYR	1	1	1	3
CBJ	2	2	2	6

Period scoring

NYR won 0 · CBJ won 3

NYR

CBJ

Play-by-play · 293 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYR 3·CBJ 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYR 3·CBJ 6
3rd·19:55
Jaroslav Chmelar shot blocked by Dante Fabbro
·
NYR 3·CBJ 6
3rd·19:46
Jonny Brodzinski Tip-In Wide Right
·
NYR 3·CBJ 6
3rd·19:09
Takeaway by Gabe Perreault
NYR 3·CBJ 6
3rd·18:42
Mika Zibanejad Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
NYR 3·CBJ 6
3rd·18:25
Conor Sheary Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NYR 3·CBJ 6
3rd·18:07
Tye Kartye Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
NYR 3·CBJ 6
3rd·18:01
Giveaway by Ivan Provorov
NYR 3·CBJ 6
3rd·17:49
Boone Jenner faceoff won against J.T. Miller
·
NYR 3·CBJ 6
3rd·17:49
Puck in Netting
NYR 3·CBJ 6
3rd·17:48
Erik Gudbranson shot blocked by Adam Edstrom
·
NYR 3·CBJ 6
3rd·17:19
Giveaway by Jonny Brodzinski
NYR 3·CBJ 6
3rd·17:06
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Jonny Brodzinski
·
NYR 3·CBJ 6
3rd·17:06
Adam Fantilli Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (23)
·
NYR 3·CBJ 6
3rd·16:54
Will Borgen Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
NYR 3·CBJ 5
3rd·16:43
Kirill Marchenko hit Will Cuylle
·
NYR 3·CBJ 5
3rd·16:18
Takeaway by Sean Monahan
NYR 3·CBJ 5
3rd·16:12
Giveaway by Vincent Trocheck
NYR 3·CBJ 5
3rd·15:43
Braden Schneider shot blocked by Danton Heinen
·
NYR 3·CBJ 5
3rd·14:40
Giveaway by Adam Fox
NYR 3·CBJ 5
3rd·14:30
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
NYR 3·CBJ 5
3rd·14:30
Puck in Netting
NYR 3·CBJ 5
3rd·13:50
Boone Jenner Slap Shot Wide Right
·
NYR 3·CBJ 5
3rd·13:07
Giveaway by Vladislav Gavrikov
NYR 3·CBJ 5
3rd·13:00
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Adam Fantilli
·
NYR 3·CBJ 5
3rd·13:00
Goalie Stopped
NYR 3·CBJ 5
3rd·12:59
J.T. Miller Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
NYR 3·CBJ 5
3rd·12:55
Vladislav Gavrikov Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
NYR 3·CBJ 5
3rd·12:51
J.T. Miller Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
NYR 3·CBJ 5

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYR +180/CBJ -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets held off New York Rangers, 6–3.

CBJ -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Adam Fantilli · CBJ17:480.7968.9%76.4%17:48 TOI · 0.79 iXG · 68.9% CF · 76.4% xGF
Zach Werenski · CBJ24:180.6281.8%78.1%24:18 TOI · 0.62 iXG · 81.8% CF · 78.1% xGF
Adam Edstrom · NSH8:120.4842.9%43.6%8:12 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 42.9% CF · 43.6% xGF
Damon Severson · CBJ24:300.4557.9%58.3%24:30 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 57.9% CF · 58.3% xGF
Mason Marchment · CBJ16:120.4166.7%75.6%16:12 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 66.7% CF · 75.6% xGF
Cole Sillinger · CBJ15:540.3662.5%75.9%15:54 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 62.5% CF · 75.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Igor Shesterkin · NYR31–5.861-0.7631–5 · .861 SV% · -0.76 GSAx
Jet Greaves · CBJ22–3.880-0.8222–3 · .880 SV% · -0.82 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.2%

ensemble · CBJ favored

Elo Static
64.2%
P(CBJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.2%
P(CBJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.2%
P(CBJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+180

Close price

+180

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

34.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYR at CBJ?: The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

New York RangersColumbus Blue Jackets

Elsewhere in the NHL