Live · 9
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+2DET
MTL

MTL

37-21-10

13
DET

DET

38-23-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 19FinalSeriesDET wins series 2-1VegasMTL -115

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings held off Montreal Canadiens, 3–1.

DET +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

MTL
Cole Caufield

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

DET · top performer

DET
Alex DeBrincat

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
3
MTL37-21-10DET38-23-8
MTL

MTL

37-21-10

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DET

DET

38-23-8

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

8

Season series

DET wins series 2-1

Oct 9MTLMTL5@DETDET1
Jan 11DETDET4@MTLMTL0
Mar 19MTLMTL1@DETDET3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTLMTL-11553%
DETDET-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat MTL 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
MTL0101
DET0033

Period scoring

MTL won 1 · DET won 1

0
0

1

1
0

2

0
3

3

MTL
DET

Play-by-play · 357 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    MTL 1·DET 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MTL 1·DET 3

  3. 3rd·19:43

    Emmitt Finnie faceoff won against Joseph Veleno

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 3

  4. 3rd·19:43

    Andrew Copp Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (38)

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 3

  5. 3rd·19:19

    J.T. Compher shot blocked by Lane Hutson

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 2

  6. 3rd·19:05

    J.T. Compher faceoff won against Phillip Danault

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 2

  7. 3rd·19:05

    Timeout - Visitor

    MTL 1·DET 2

  8. 3rd·19:05

    Icing

    MTL 1·DET 2

  9. 3rd·18:48

    David Perron shot blocked by Noah Dobson

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 2

  10. 3rd·18:11

    Noah Dobson Slap Shot saved by John Gibson

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 2

  11. 3rd·18:08

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Emmitt Finnie

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 2

  12. 3rd·18:08

    Icing

    MTL 1·DET 2

  13. 3rd·17:38

    Moritz Seider hit Noah Dobson

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 2

  14. 3rd·17:26

    Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 2

  15. 3rd·17:13

    Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 2

  16. 3rd·17:00

    Moritz Seider Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 2

  17. 3rd·16:54

    Cole Caufield hit Moritz Seider

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 2

  18. 3rd·16:51

    J.T. Compher faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 2

  19. 3rd·16:51

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    MTL 1·DET 2

  20. 3rd·16:42

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against J.T. Compher

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 2

  21. 3rd·16:42

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    MTL 1·DET 2

  22. 3rd·16:35

    Andrew Copp faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 2

  23. 3rd·16:35

    Alex DeBrincat Goal (34) Backhand, assists: none

    MTL 1·DET 2

  24. 3rd·16:33

    Giveaway by Mike Matheson

    MTL 1·DET 1

  25. 3rd·16:22

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against J.T. Compher

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 1

  26. 3rd·16:22

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    MTL 1·DET 1

  27. 3rd·16:19

    Zachary Bolduc Tip-In saved by John Gibson

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 1

  28. 3rd·16:10

    Ben Chiarot hit Jake Evans

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 1

  29. 3rd·16:04

    Zachary Bolduc shot blocked by Emmitt Finnie

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 1

  30. 3rd·15:57

    Jake Evans Backhand saved by John Gibson

    ·

    MTL 1·DET 1

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

DET

Home

33

Shots

28

50.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

8

31

Faceoffs W

25

14

Blocks

12

18

Giveaways

19

2

Takeaways

8

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL -115/DET -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699
  • Ivan DemidovMTL · RW
    DIST MI49.298

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR