
MTL
37-21-10

DET
38-23-8
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
etroit Red Wings held off Montreal Canadiens, 3–1.
DET +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield
RW · #13
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
DET · top performer

Alex DeBrincat
RW · #93
1
G
2
A
—
SOG
NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


MTL
37-21-10
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
DET
38-23-8
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
8
PIM
8
Season series
DET wins series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MTL -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 15 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
DET beat MTL 3-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Period scoring
MTL won 1 · DET won 1
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 357 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 1·DET 3
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 1·DET 3
- 3rd·19:43
Emmitt Finnie faceoff won against Joseph Veleno
·
MTL 1·DET 3
- 3rd·19:43
Andrew Copp Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (38)
·
MTL 1·DET 3
- 3rd·19:19
J.T. Compher shot blocked by Lane Hutson
·
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·19:05
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·19:05
Timeout - Visitor
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·19:05
Icing
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·18:48
David Perron shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·18:11
Noah Dobson Slap Shot saved by John Gibson
·
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·18:08
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Emmitt Finnie
·
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·18:08
Icing
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·17:38
Moritz Seider hit Noah Dobson
·
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·17:26
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson
·
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·17:13
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·17:00
Moritz Seider Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·16:54
Cole Caufield hit Moritz Seider
·
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·16:51
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·16:51
Puck Frozen - Goalie
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·16:42
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·16:42
Puck Frozen - Goalie
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·16:35
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·16:35
Alex DeBrincat Goal (34) Backhand, assists: none
MTL 1·DET 2
- 3rd·16:33
Giveaway by Mike Matheson
MTL 1·DET 1
- 3rd·16:22
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
MTL 1·DET 1
- 3rd·16:22
Puck Frozen - Goalie
MTL 1·DET 1
- 3rd·16:19
Zachary Bolduc Tip-In saved by John Gibson
·
MTL 1·DET 1
- 3rd·16:10
Ben Chiarot hit Jake Evans
·
MTL 1·DET 1
- 3rd·16:04
Zachary Bolduc shot blocked by Emmitt Finnie
·
MTL 1·DET 1
- 3rd·15:57
Jake Evans Backhand saved by John Gibson
·
MTL 1·DET 1
Team stats
MTL
Away
Stat
DET
Home
33
Shots
28
50.0
PCT
0.0
8
PIM
8
31
Faceoffs W
25
14
Blocks
12
18
Giveaways
19
2
Takeaways
8
Betting line
MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL -115/DET -105
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
Lane HutsonMTL · DDIST MI71.899+
Moritz SeiderDET · DDIST MI299.899
Mike MathesonMTL · DDIST MI62.999
Cole CaufieldMTL · RWDIST MI56.699
Ivan DemidovMTL · RWDIST MI49.298
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-105
Close price
-105
Open no-vig
48.9%
Close no-vig
48.9%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit