Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at DET?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2DET

MTL

37-21-10

DET

38-23-8

NHLThu, Mar 19FinalSeriesDET wins series 2-1VegasMTL -115

MTL · top performer

Juraj Slafkovsky

LW · #20

1Points

—

SOG

DET · top performer

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	15:44
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	1	-2	3	3	0	0	18:48
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	14:03
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	11:59
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	17:52
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	11:25
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:33
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	9:34
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	1	0	-2	5	2	1	0	19:52
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	1	-2	0	1	0	0	21:24
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	13:46
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	11:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	20:15
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	-2	3	2	4	0	23:01
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	-1	1	4	0	2	16:33
L. HutsonD · #48	0	0	-1	3	0	1	2	23:59
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	-1	3	0	2	0	21:41
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	12:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	27	2	25	.926	58:25

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	14:30
J.T. CompherLW · #37	1	0	3	1	0	1	0	22:08
A. CoppC · #18	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	18:19
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	1	2	3	4	3	1	0	19:11
S. DriesC · #15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:53
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	16:51
P. KaneRW · #88	0	1	2	3	2	0	0	17:27
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	0	3	8	1	0	16:58
D. PerronLW · #57	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:11
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:45
D. ShineRW · #65	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:14
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	8:46

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:43
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	0	1	6	2	2	19:36
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	3	0	4	1	0	26:41
J. FaulkD · #72	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	20:26
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:29
M. SeiderD · #53	0	0	3	4	1	1	4	24:39

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	33	1	32	.970	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

DET

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DET wins series 2-1

Oct 9

MTL5@

DET1

Jan 11

DET4@

MTL0

Mar 19

MTL1@

DET3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL-11553%

DET-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 37 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat MTL 3-1. A. DeBrincat led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	0	1	0	1
DET	0	0	3	3

Period scoring

MTL won 1 · DET won 1

MTL

DET

Play-by-play · 357 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 1·DET 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 1·DET 3
3rd·19:43
Emmitt Finnie faceoff won against Joseph Veleno
·
MTL 1·DET 3
3rd·19:43
Andrew Copp Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (38)
·
MTL 1·DET 3
3rd·19:19
J.T. Compher shot blocked by Lane Hutson
·
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·19:05
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·19:05
Timeout - Visitor
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·19:05
Icing
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·18:48
David Perron shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·18:11
Noah Dobson Slap Shot saved by John Gibson
·
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·18:08
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Emmitt Finnie
·
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·18:08
Icing
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·17:38
Moritz Seider hit Noah Dobson
·
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·17:26
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson
·
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·17:13
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·17:00
Moritz Seider Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·16:54
Cole Caufield hit Moritz Seider
·
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·16:51
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·16:51
Puck Frozen - Goalie
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·16:42
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·16:42
Puck Frozen - Goalie
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·16:35
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·16:35
Alex DeBrincat Goal (34) Backhand, assists: none
MTL 1·DET 2
3rd·16:33
Giveaway by Mike Matheson
MTL 1·DET 1
3rd·16:22
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
MTL 1·DET 1
3rd·16:22
Puck Frozen - Goalie
MTL 1·DET 1
3rd·16:19
Zachary Bolduc Tip-In saved by John Gibson
·
MTL 1·DET 1
3rd·16:10
Ben Chiarot hit Jake Evans
·
MTL 1·DET 1
3rd·16:04
Zachary Bolduc shot blocked by Emmitt Finnie
·
MTL 1·DET 1
3rd·15:57
Jake Evans Backhand saved by John Gibson
·
MTL 1·DET 1

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL -115/DET -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings held off Montreal Canadiens, 3–1.

DET +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Marco Kasper · DET17:000.6051.5%63.0%17:00 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 51.5% CF · 63.0% xGF
Juraj Slafkovský · MTL20:180.5945.7%49.5%20:18 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 45.7% CF · 49.5% xGF
Alex DeBrincat · DET19:360.5658.1%47.9%19:36 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 58.1% CF · 47.9% xGF
Lane Hutson · MTL23:540.5362.5%65.7%23:54 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 62.5% CF · 65.7% xGF
Brendan Gallagher · VAN11:240.4081.0%72.2%11:24 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 81.0% CF · 72.2% xGF
Joe Veleno · MTL11:240.3665.4%59.6%11:24 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 65.4% CF · 59.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

John Gibson · DET32–1.970+2.5932–1 · .970 SV% · +2.59 GSAx
Jakub Dobes · MTL25–2.926+0.3225–2 · .926 SV% · +0.32 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.7%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
55.7%
P(DET win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.7%
P(DET win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.7%
P(DET win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at DET?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensDetroit Red Wings

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