Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5BOS

WPG

28-29-11

BOS

38-23-8

NHLThu, Mar 19FinalSeriesBOS wins series 2-0VegasBOS -142

WPG · top performer

Jonathan Toews

C · #19

1Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

David Pastrnak

RW · #88

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	11:30
K. ConnorLW · #81	0	0	-3	1	1	0	0	20:41
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	-2	2	2	1	0	14:34
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:41
B. LambertC · #93	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	12:16
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	14:38
G. NyquistRW · #14	0	0	-1	1	0	1	2	14:59
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	17:48
I. RosenRW · #27	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	11:51
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	21:56
J. ToewsC · #19	1	0	-1	4	0	0	0	14:59
G. VilardiC · #13	0	0	-3	3	1	0	0	19:13

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrysonD · #78	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	11:49
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	22:28
H. FleuryD · #24	0	0	-3	1	2	0	0	11:55
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	25:19
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	1	-1	1	1	0	0	21:21
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	21:02

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	27	6	21	.778	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	1	1	2	2	0	0	2	14:15
M. GeekieC · #39	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	14:55
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	14:43
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	14:25
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:28
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:21
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	16:39
F. MintenC · #93	1	0	2	4	1	0	0	14:40
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	2	2	2	1	0	0	14:11
D. PastrnakRW · #88	1	1	2	3	3	0	4	14:55
L. ReichelLW · #75	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	14:45
P. ZachaC · #18	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	12:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	1	0	4	1	2	2	0	17:17
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	21:20
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	20:23
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	0	4	2	0	1	0	20:34
A. PeekeD · #26	0	1	2	2	2	3	0	19:06
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	19:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	24	1	23	.958	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BOS wins series 2-0

Dec 12

BOS6@

WPG3

Mar 19

WPG1@

BOS6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG+12045%

BOS-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat WPG 6-1. D. Pastrnak led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WPG	0	0	1	1
BOS	1	2	3	6

Period scoring

WPG won 0 · BOS won 3

WPG

BOS

Play-by-play · 278 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WPG 1·BOS 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WPG 1·BOS 6
3rd·19:36
Gustav Nyquist Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
WPG 1·BOS 6
3rd·19:23
Tanner Jeannot Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
WPG 1·BOS 6
3rd·19:06
Dylan Samberg Slap Shot Wide Right
·
WPG 1·BOS 6
3rd·19:03
Elias Salomonsson shot blocked by Mark Kastelic
·
WPG 1·BOS 6
3rd·18:25
Cole Perfetti Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
WPG 1·BOS 6
3rd·18:22
Giveaway by Nikita Zadorov
WPG 1·BOS 6
3rd·18:18
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Sean Kuraly
·
WPG 1·BOS 6
3rd·18:18
Jonathan Aspirot Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (24), Lukas Reichel (4)
· ·
WPG 1·BOS 6
3rd·17:46
Mark Kastelic hit Gabriel Vilardi
·
WPG 1·BOS 5
3rd·17:32
Tanner Jeannot Snap Shot Wide Right
·
WPG 1·BOS 5
3rd·16:59
Giveaway by Hampus Lindholm
·
WPG 1·BOS 5
3rd·15:52
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Morgan Barron
· ·
WPG 1·BOS 5
3rd·15:52
Fraser Minten Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (57), Andrew Peeke (9)
· ·
WPG 1·BOS 5
3rd·15:34
Giveaway by Nikita Zadorov
WPG 1·BOS 4
3rd·14:38
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
WPG 1·BOS 4
3rd·14:38
Off-side
WPG 1·BOS 4
3rd·14:24
Mark Kastelic hit Jonathan Toews
·
WPG 1·BOS 4
3rd·14:22
Tanner Jeannot hit Jacob Bryson
·
WPG 1·BOS 4
3rd·14:13
Sean Kuraly shot blocked by Dylan Samberg
·
WPG 1·BOS 4
3rd·13:50
Sean Kuraly faceoff won against Jonathan Toews
·
WPG 1·BOS 4
3rd·13:50
Puck in Crowd
WPG 1·BOS 4
3rd·13:48
Mark Kastelic shot blocked by Dylan Samberg
·
WPG 1·BOS 4
3rd·13:38
Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Jonathan Toews
·
WPG 1·BOS 4
3rd·13:38
Goalie Stopped
WPG 1·BOS 4
3rd·13:36
Tanner Jeannot Snap Shot Wide Right
·
WPG 1·BOS 4
3rd·13:06
Lukas Reichel shot blocked by Dylan DeMelo
·
WPG 1·BOS 4
3rd·13:00
Dylan DeMelo hit Morgan Geekie
·
WPG 1·BOS 4
3rd·12:48
Morgan Barron faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
WPG 1·BOS 4

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 5.5·WPG +120/BOS -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins held off Winnipeg Jets, 6–1.

BOS -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Gabriel Vilardi · WPG19:240.6783.3%94.6%19:24 TOI · 0.67 iXG · 83.3% CF · 94.6% xGF
Fraser Minten · BOS15:000.5642.9%38.1%15:00 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 42.9% CF · 38.1% xGF
Tanner Jeannot · BOS14:420.5654.2%73.0%14:42 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 54.2% CF · 73.0% xGF
Adam Lowry · WPG14:540.5269.0%68.6%14:54 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 69.0% CF · 68.6% xGF
Mark Scheifele · WPG22:120.4973.1%79.9%22:12 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 73.1% CF · 79.9% xGF
Jonathan Toews · WPG15:000.4040.0%43.3%15:00 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 40.0% CF · 43.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jeremy Swayman · BOS23–1.958+1.3823–1 · .958 SV% · +1.38 GSAx
Connor Hellebuyck · WPG21–6.778-3.2221–6 · .778 SV% · -3.22 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.1%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
64.1%
P(BOS win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.1%
P(BOS win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.1%
P(BOS win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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