Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at SJ?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYI

NYI

36-23-5

30-25-6

NHLSat, Mar 7FinalSeriesNYI win series 2-0VegasNYI -148

NYI · top performer

Bo Horvat

C · #14

1Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	1	0	3	2	1	0	24:23
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	9:52
A. DuclairLW · #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:52
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	8:41
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:50
S. HolmstromRW · #92	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:04
B. HorvatC · #14	1	0	1	6	1	2	0	23:17
A. LeeLW · #27	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	14:39
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	16:23
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:42
C. RitchieC · #64	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	15:56
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	17:26

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	22:09
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	12:34
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	0	4	4	3	2	23:38
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	21:06
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	1	1	3	0	1	2	29:01
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	14:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	31	1	30	.968	64:20

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	1	0	0	4	1	1	0	23:10
W. EklundLW · #72	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	17:08
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	13:51
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	-1	0	3	2	0	10:23
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	0	5	2	1	2	18:54
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:23
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	9:03
R. ReavesRW · #75	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	6:20
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	0	0	3	3	2	16:32
W. SmithC · #2	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	21:57
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:15
A. WennbergC · #21	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	21:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	20:38
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	17:31
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	22:57
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	19:28
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	19:39
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	0	2	4	1	2	22:23

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. AskarovG · #30	34	2	32	.941	64:20

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYI win series 2-0

Oct 21

SJ3@

NYI4

Mar 8

NYI2@

SJ1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI-14860%

SJ+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat SJ 2-1. B. Horvat led the way — 1 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
NYI	1	0	0	1	2
SJ	0	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

NYI won 2 · SJ won 1

NYI

Play-by-play · 339 plays

period

event

player

OT·4:20
Game End
NYI 2·SJ 1
OT·4:20
End of OT
NYI 2·SJ 1
OT·4:20
Bo Horvat Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Matthew Schaefer (26), Mathew Barzal (40)
· ·
NYI 2·SJ 1
OT·3:44
Mathew Barzal hit Macklin Celebrini
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·3:11
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·3:11
Goalie Stopped
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·3:09
Macklin Celebrini Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·3:02
Dmitry Orlov Tip-In Wide Left
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·2:46
Bo Horvat Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·2:08
Michael Misa Wrap-around Failed Bank Attempt
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·1:20
John Klingberg Slap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·1:07
Dmitry Orlov Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·0:22
William Eklund shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·0:09
Will Smith Slap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·0:00
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·19:49
Dmitry Orlov shot blocked by Bo Horvat
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·19:36
Dmitry Orlov shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·19:20
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·19:20
Timeout - Home
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·19:20
Puck in Netting
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·19:18
Will Smith Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·18:37
Macklin Celebrini shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·18:34
Giveaway by Matthew Schaefer
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·18:32
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·18:32
Adam Pelech Holding against Kiefer Sherwood
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·18:24
Collin Graf Backhand saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·18:19
Takeaway by Collin Graf
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·17:21
Calum Ritchie Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
NYI 1·SJ 1

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYI -148/SJ +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders went into San Jose Sharks and beat them, 2–1 in overtime.

SJ +1.5 cashed (NYI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.5%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
53.5%
P(SJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.5%
P(SJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.5%
P(SJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at SJ?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

New York IslandersSan Jose Sharks

Elsewhere in the NHL