NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYI

NYI

36-23-5

30-25-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 7FinalSeriesNYI win series 2-0VegasNYI -148

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders went into San Jose Sharks and beat them, 2–1 in overtime.

SJ +1.5 cashed (NYI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYI · top performer

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

1Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

NYI36-23-5

SJ30-25-6

NYI36-23-5SJ30-25-6

NYI

36-23-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

30-25-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

NYI win series 2-0

Oct 21

SJ3@

NYI4

Mar 8

NYI2@

SJ1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI-14860%

SJ+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat SJ 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
NYI	1	0	0	1	2
SJ	0	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

NYI won 2 · SJ won 1

NYI

Play-by-play · 339 plays

period

event

player

OT·4:20
Game End
NYI 2·SJ 1
OT·4:20
End of OT
NYI 2·SJ 1
OT·4:20
Bo Horvat Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Matthew Schaefer (26), Mathew Barzal (40)
· ·
NYI 2·SJ 1
OT·3:44
Mathew Barzal hit Macklin Celebrini
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·3:11
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·3:11
Goalie Stopped
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·3:09
Macklin Celebrini Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·3:02
Dmitry Orlov Tip-In Wide Left
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·2:46
Bo Horvat Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·2:08
Michael Misa Wrap-around Failed Bank Attempt
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·1:20
John Klingberg Slap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·1:07
Dmitry Orlov Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·0:22
William Eklund shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·0:09
Will Smith Slap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·0:00
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·19:49
Dmitry Orlov shot blocked by Bo Horvat
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·19:36
Dmitry Orlov shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·19:20
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·19:20
Timeout - Home
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·19:20
Puck in Netting
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·19:18
Will Smith Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·18:37
Macklin Celebrini shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·18:34
Giveaway by Matthew Schaefer
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·18:32
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·18:32
Adam Pelech Holding against Kiefer Sherwood
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·18:24
Collin Graf Backhand saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·18:19
Takeaway by Collin Graf
NYI 1·SJ 1
3rd·17:21
Calum Ritchie Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
NYI 1·SJ 1

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYI -148/SJ +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · C
DIST MI274.399
Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
SHOT MPH97.399
Bo HorvatNYI · C
SHOT MPH93.494

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

SJ vs NYI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

Macklin CelebriniSJ
3.4± 1.1high
Bo HorvatNYI
2.9± 0.9high
Kyle PalmieriNYI
2.7± 1.6high

Goals

Macklin CelebriniSJ
0.6± 0.8high
Anders LeeNYI
0.3± 0.5high
Bo HorvatNYI
0.3± 0.4high

Points

Macklin CelebriniSJ
1.4± 1.4high
William EklundSJ
0.9± 1.1high
Mathew BarzalNYI
0.8± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands