Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3OTT

OTT

31-22-9

SEA

29-24-9

NHLSat, Mar 7FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-0VegasOTT -162

OTT · top performer

Shane Pinto

C · #12

3Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Jordan Eberle

RW · #7

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	14:40
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	1	0	4	2	1	0	12:56
N. CousinsC · #21	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	13:40
D. CozensC · #24	1	0	1	2	5	0	0	16:05
L. EllerC · #89	0	1	1	4	2	0	2	10:44
W. FoegeleLW · #37	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	11:49
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:50
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	17:11
S. PintoC · #12	1	2	2	3	2	1	4	18:18
T. StutzleC · #18	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:51
B. TkachukLW · #7	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	15:18
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	11:42

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	2	1	2	0	1	0	26:12
N. JensenD · #3	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	20:32
T. KlevenD · #43	1	0	2	1	3	0	17	19:13
J. SandersonD · #85	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	12:52
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	18:19
A. ZubD · #2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	21:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	21	4	17	.810	59:41

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	1	0	-2	1	2	2	0	17:46
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	18:02
J. EberleRW · #7	0	2	-2	4	1	2	2	16:14
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:06
J. McCannLW · #19	0	0	-3	1	6	0	2	14:49
J. MelansonRW · #63	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	11:10
B. MeyersC · #59	0	1	-1	1	1	0	0	14:02
J. SchwartzC · #17	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6:27
C. StephensonC · #9	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	19:09
E. TolvanenRW · #20	1	0	1	1	3	0	2	17:13
R. WintertonC · #26	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	14:02
S. WrightC · #51	0	0	-1	0	0	3	0	15:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	1	-3	1	0	0	0	18:07
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:29
C. FleuryD · #8	0	1	0	0	6	3	0	15:30
A. LarssonD · #6	0	0	-3	0	1	1	0	15:18
B. MontourD · #62	1	0	-1	3	2	2	0	28:18
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	-1	0	0	4	0	23:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DaccordG · #35	37	7	30	.811	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

OTT wins series 2-0

Oct 16

SEA3@

OTT4

Mar 8

OTT7@

SEA4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT-16262%

SEA+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 30 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat SEA 7-4. S. Pinto led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
OTT	2	2	3	7
SEA	1	1	2	4

Period scoring

OTT won 3 · SEA won 0

OTT

SEA

Play-by-play · 330 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
OTT 7·SEA 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 7·SEA 4
3rd·19:48
Jordan Eberle Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 7·SEA 4
3rd·19:40
Tim Stützle Slap Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
OTT 7·SEA 4
3rd·19:15
Giveaway by Ben Meyers
OTT 7·SEA 4
3rd·18:48
Eeli Tolvanen Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
OTT 7·SEA 4
3rd·18:17
Giveaway by Shane Wright
OTT 7·SEA 4
3rd·18:17
Takeaway by Shane Wright
OTT 7·SEA 4
3rd·18:14
Takeaway by Thomas Chabot
OTT 7·SEA 4
3rd·17:45
Shane Wright faceoff won against Shane Pinto
·
OTT 7·SEA 4
3rd·17:45
Brandon Montour Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (28), Jordan Eberle (22)
· ·
OTT 7·SEA 4
3rd·17:27
Matty Beniers faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·17:27
Puck in Netting
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·17:25
Brandon Montour shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
·
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·16:58
Shane Pinto faceoff won against Matty Beniers
·
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·16:58
Lars Eller Hooking against Berkly Catton
·
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·16:35
Lars Eller faceoff won against Shane Wright
·
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·16:35
On-Ice Official Video Review
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·16:35
Tyler Kleven Game Misconduct
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·16:35
Tyler Kleven Cross-checking against Jared McCann served by Drake Batherson
· ·
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·16:35
Jared McCann Roughing against Tyler Kleven
·
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·16:35
Tyler Kleven Slashing against Jared McCann served by Drake Batherson
· ·
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·16:04
Jacob Melanson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·15:10
Giveaway by Berkly Catton
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·14:32
Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Cale Fleury
·
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·14:18
Lars Eller Batted saved by Joey Daccord
·
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·14:16
Lars Eller Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·14:11
Warren Foegele shot blocked by Cale Fleury
·
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·14:10
Lars Eller faceoff won against Ben Meyers
·
OTT 7·SEA 3
3rd·14:10
Puck in Netting
OTT 7·SEA 3

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·OTT -162/SEA +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators went into Seattle Kraken and beat them, 7–4.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
54.8%
P(SEA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.8%
P(SEA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.8%
P(SEA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Ottawa SenatorsSeattle Kraken

Elsewhere in the NHL