Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at WPG?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WPG

VAN

19-36-8

WPG

26-26-10

NHLSat, Mar 7FinalSeriesWPG wins series 3-0VegasWPG -290

VAN · top performer

Liam Ohgren

LW · #92

1Points

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

Mark Scheifele

C · #55

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	16:08
B. BoeserRW · #6	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	16:12
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	16:08
N. HoglanderLW · #21	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:12
E. KaneLW · #91	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	12:34
L. KarlssonC · #94	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	13:42
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	14:49
L. OhgrenLW · #92	1	0	0	4	0	1	0	17:57
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	16:59
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	11:40
M. RossiC · #93	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	16:57
M. SassonC · #63	0	1	1	2	0	2	2	14:37

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	16:35
F. HronekD · #17	0	0	-2	2	3	1	0	26:45
V. ManciniD · #90	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	13:55
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	23:51
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	20:04
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	2	0	2	1	0	20:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LankinenG · #32	36	3	33	.917	61:49

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	12:13
K. ConnorLW · #81	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	25:09
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	17:13
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:28
B. LambertC · #93	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:26
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	16:15
G. NyquistRW · #14	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	12:07
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	19:04
I. RosenRW · #27	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	11:24
M. ScheifeleC · #55	1	2	1	6	1	2	0	25:07
J. ToewsC · #19	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	11:32
G. VilardiC · #13	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	21:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrysonD · #78	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	15:58
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	20:14
H. FleuryD · #24	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:31
J. MorrisseyD · #44	1	1	1	5	0	0	0	24:27
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	18:28
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	22:01

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	23	2	21	.913	61:17

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VAN

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WPG wins series 3-0

Nov 12

WPG5@

VAN3

Feb 26

WPG3@

VAN2

Mar 8

VAN2@

WPG3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WPG -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VAN+23530%

WPG-29074%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat VAN 3-2. M. Scheifele led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
VAN	1	0	1	0	2
WPG	0	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

VAN won 1 · WPG won 2

VAN

WPG

Play-by-play · 290 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:49
Game End
VAN 2·WPG 3
OT·1:49
End of OT
VAN 2·WPG 3
OT·1:49
Josh Morrissey Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (48), Kyle Connor (43)
· ·
VAN 2·WPG 3
OT·1:38
Elias Pettersson Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
VAN 2·WPG 2
OT·1:15
Jake DeBrusk Deflected saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
VAN 2·WPG 2
OT·1:06
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
VAN 2·WPG 2
OT·1:06
Goalie Stopped
VAN 2·WPG 2
OT·1:05
Kyle Connor Snap Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 2·WPG 2
OT·0:18
Marco Rossi Snap Shot Wide Left
·
VAN 2·WPG 2
OT·0:00
Teddy Blueger faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
VAN 2·WPG 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·19:57
Jake DeBrusk Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·19:56
Giveaway by Cole Perfetti
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·19:23
Tom Willander hit Mark Scheifele
·
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·18:24
Marco Rossi hit Dylan Samberg
·
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·18:21
Elias Salomonsson Slap Shot Wide Left
·
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·17:58
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Brock Boeser
·
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·17:58
Goalie Stopped
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·17:56
Drew O'Connor Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·17:26
Filip Hronek hit Mark Scheifele
·
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·17:13
Filip Hronek Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·17:13
Giveaway by Gabriel Vilardi
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·16:25
Marco Rossi Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·16:03
Giveaway by Filip Hronek
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·15:42
Morgan Barron hit Tom Willander
·
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·15:39
Giveaway by Dylan Samberg
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·15:35
Giveaway by Tom Willander
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·15:12
Elias Pettersson faceoff won against Adam Lowry
· ·
VAN 2·WPG 2
3rd·15:12
Gabriel Vilardi Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Mark Scheifele (47), Josh Morrissey (33)
· ·
VAN 2·WPG 2

Betting line

WPG -1.5·O/U 5.5·VAN +235/WPG -290

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets held off Vancouver Canucks, 3–2 in overtime.

VAN +1.5 cashed (WPG won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.4%

ensemble · WPG favored

Elo Static
64.4%
P(WPG win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.4%
P(WPG win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.4%
P(WPG win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+235

Close price

+235

Open no-vig

28.6%

Close no-vig

28.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at WPG?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vancouver CanucksWinnipeg Jets

Elsewhere in the NHL