Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2BOS

WSH

31-26-7

BOS

35-22-5

NHLSat, Mar 7FinalSeriesBOS leads series 2-0VegasBOS -130

WSH · top performer

Jakob Chychrun

D · #6

1Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

David Pastrnak

RW · #88

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:25
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	18:39
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	9:44
E. FrankC · #53	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	9:36
H. LapierreC · #29	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:39
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	13:18
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:19
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	18:22
A. ProtasC · #21	1	0	-1	2	1	0	2	18:19
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	1	1	0	1	4	13:45
D. StromeC · #17	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:37
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	0	-2	2	1	1	2	21:34

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. ChisholmD · #47	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	11:38
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	1	-1	5	2	5	0	24:40
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	0	1	1	7	0	20:35
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	0	3	5	1	0	20:16
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	20:51
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	15:06

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	29	2	27	.931	58:06

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	13:48
M. GeekieC · #39	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	18:12
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	13:14
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	12:37
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	14:13
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	12:36
E. LindholmC · #28	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	21:36
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	15:34
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:57
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	2	1	6	1	0	2	20:56
A. SteevesC · #21	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	10:31
P. ZachaC · #18	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:44

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:52
H. LindholmD · #27	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	18:02
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:54
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	25:52
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	18:36
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	18:46

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	23	1	22	.957	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

16.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BOS leads series 2-0

Oct 8

BOS3@

WSH1

Mar 7

WSH1@

BOS3today

Mar 14

BOS3@

WSH2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+11048%

BOS-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat WSH 3-1. D. Pastrnak led the way — 2 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WSH	0	1	0	1
BOS	0	1	2	3

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · BOS won 1

WSH

BOS

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WSH 1·BOS 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 1·BOS 3
3rd·19:52
Ethen Frank shot blocked by Andrew Peeke
·
WSH 1·BOS 3
3rd·19:36
Hendrix Lapierre faceoff won against Sean Kuraly
·
WSH 1·BOS 3
3rd·19:36
Elias Lindholm Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (52)
· ·
WSH 1·BOS 3
3rd·19:29
Alex Ovechkin Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·19:22
Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·19:22
Puck in Crowd
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·19:18
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Charlie McAvoy
·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·18:55
Charlie McAvoy shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun
·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·18:52
Alex Ovechkin Snap Shot Wide Left
·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·18:52
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·18:52
Icing
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·18:08
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Dylan Strome
· ·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·18:08
Goalie Stopped
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·18:06
Anthony Beauvillier Slap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·17:29
Viktor Arvidsson hit Martin Fehervary
·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·16:55
Morgan Geekie Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·16:26
Rasmus Sandin hit Tanner Jeannot
·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·14:18
Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Mark Kastelic
·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·14:11
Jakob Chychrun Snap Shot Wide Right
·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·14:03
Giveaway by Mark Kastelic
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·13:54
Sean Kuraly faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·13:54
Goalie Stopped
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·13:50
Dylan Strome Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·13:20
Tom Wilson hit Jonathan Aspirot
·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·12:56
Giveaway by Pierre-Luc Dubois
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·12:21
Connor McMichael Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·12:12
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Fraser Minten
·
WSH 1·BOS 2
3rd·12:12
Icing
WSH 1·BOS 2

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH +110/BOS -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins held off Washington Capitals, 3–1.

BOS -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Elias Lindholm · BOS21:541.1157.8%58.2%21:54 TOI · 1.11 iXG · 57.8% CF · 58.2% xGF
Tom Wilson · WSH21:420.6442.6%43.3%21:42 TOI · 0.64 iXG · 42.6% CF · 43.3% xGF
Pavel Zacha · BOS15:360.5259.4%65.8%15:36 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 59.4% CF · 65.8% xGF
Jakob Chychrun · WSH24:540.5154.9%63.8%24:54 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 54.9% CF · 63.8% xGF
Viktor Arvidsson · BOS13:480.4261.9%79.4%13:48 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 61.9% CF · 79.4% xGF
David Pastrnak · BOS21:000.4157.5%61.2%21:00 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 57.5% CF · 61.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Logan Thompson · WSH27–2.931+1.4227–2 · .931 SV% · +1.42 GSAx
Jeremy Swayman · BOS22–1.957+1.3122–1 · .957 SV% · +1.31 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.4%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
60.4%
P(BOS win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
60.4%
P(BOS win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
60.4%
P(BOS win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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