Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BUF

NSH

28-27-8

BUF

38-19-6

NHLSat, Mar 7FinalSeriesBUF wins series 2-0VegasBUF -185

NSH · top performer

Matthew Wood

RW · #71

1Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Jason Zucker

LW · #17

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	15:48
F. ForsbergLW · #9	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	18:48
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	16:12
T. JostC · #17	0	0	-1	0	0	0	4	10:47
J. KemellRW · #25	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	15:00
Z. L'HeureuxLW · #68	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	13:26
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	17:03
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	21:20
S. StamkosC · #91	0	1	-1	1	1	1	2	17:53
F. SvechkovC · #40	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	9:49
O. WiesblattC · #89	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	9:21
M. WoodRW · #71	1	0	-1	3	0	2	0	15:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:49
N. HagueD · #41	0	0	1	3	1	2	0	20:59
R. JosiD · #59	0	1	-2	2	0	0	0	25:56
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	18:41
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	21:35
R. UfkoD · #85	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	13:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SarosG · #74	24	3	21	.875	58:52

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:32
S. CarrickC · #10	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	8:55
J. DoanRW · #91	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	16:11
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	14:27
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	9:12
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17:32
J. NorrisC · #9	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	16:37
N. OstlundC · #86	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:46
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	1	0	2	2	1	2	14:10
T. ThompsonC · #72	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	18:53
A. TuchRW · #89	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	21:19
J. ZuckerLW · #17	1	0	0	5	0	1	0	14:42

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	23:11
R. DahlinD · #26	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	24:36
M. KesselringD · #8	0	0	1	1	1	3	0	10:28
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	11:38
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	-1	2	0	3	0	23:02
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	24:36

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. LyonG · #34	25	2	23	.920	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BUF wins series 2-0

Jan 21

BUF5@

NSH3

Mar 7

NSH2@

BUF3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSH+15439%

BUF-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat NSH 3-2. J. Zucker led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NSH	0	1	1	2
BUF	0	2	1	3

Period scoring

NSH won 0 · BUF won 1

NSH

BUF

Play-by-play · 317 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·19:59
Matthew Wood shot blocked by Owen Power
·
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·19:57
Sam Carrick faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·19:57
Icing
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·19:52
Mattias Samuelsson Wrist Shot Wide Left
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·19:52
Giveaway by Roman Josi
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·19:26
Sam Carrick faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·19:26
Goalie Stopped
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·19:25
Roman Josi Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·19:19
Matthew Wood Slap Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·19:11
Filip Forsberg Slap Shot Wide Right
·
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·19:06
Roman Josi Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·18:54
Josh Doan Snap Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·18:11
Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Noah Ostlund
·
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·18:11
High Stick
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:21
Josh Norris faceoff won against Steven Stamkos
·
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:21
Puck in Benches
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:08
Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:08
Matthew Wood Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (32), Steven Stamkos (20)
· ·
NSH 2·BUF 3
3rd·15:55
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
NSH 1·BUF 3
3rd·15:55
TV Timeout
NSH 1·BUF 3
3rd·15:55
Jack Quinn Interference against Joakim Kemell
·
NSH 1·BUF 3
3rd·15:53
Erik Haula Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
NSH 1·BUF 3
3rd·15:32
Giveaway by Juuse Saros
NSH 1·BUF 3
3rd·15:29
Joakim Kemell hit Ryan McLeod
·
NSH 1·BUF 3
3rd·15:25
Takeaway by Ryan McLeod
NSH 1·BUF 3
3rd·15:16
Zachary L'Heureux shot blocked by Jason Zucker
·
NSH 1·BUF 3
3rd·15:10
Ryan Ufko shot blocked by Michael Kesselring
·
NSH 1·BUF 3
3rd·14:41
Takeaway by Alex Tuch
NSH 1·BUF 3

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·NSH +154/BUF -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Nashville Predators, 3–2.

NSH +1.5 cashed (BUF won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Josh Doan · BUF16:120.6162.5%66.9%16:12 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 62.5% CF · 66.9% xGF
Luke Evangelista · NSH16:120.5964.9%73.9%16:12 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 64.9% CF · 73.9% xGF
#848274213:240.4736.0%51.9%13:24 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 36.0% CF · 51.9% xGF
Filip Forsberg · NSH18:540.4770.5%70.2%18:54 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 70.5% CF · 70.2% xGF
Matthew Wood · NSH15:480.4463.4%66.0%15:48 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 63.4% CF · 66.0% xGF
Tage Thompson · BUF19:120.4345.9%49.2%19:12 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 45.9% CF · 49.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Alex Lyon · BUF23–2.920+1.0023–2 · .920 SV% · +1.00 GSAx
Juuse Saros · NSH21–3.875-0.4021–3 · .875 SV% · -0.40 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
67.1%
P(BUF win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
67.1%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
67.1%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-185

Close price

-185

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

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