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FINAL+1BUF
NSH

NSH

28-27-8

23
BUF

BUF

38-19-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 7FinalSeriesBUF wins series 2-0VegasBUF -185

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Nashville Predators, 3–2.

NSH +1.5 cashed (BUF won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NSH · top performer

NSH
Zachary L'Heureux

Zachary L'Heureux

LW · #68

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Josh Doan

Josh Doan

RW · #91

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Nashville Predators at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
3
NSH28-27-8BUF38-19-6
NSH

NSH

28-27-8

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

38-19-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

8

Season series

BUF wins series 2-0

Jan 21BUFBUF5@NSHNSH3
Mar 7NSHNSH2@BUFBUF3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSHNSH+15439%
BUFBUF-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat NSH 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
NSH0112
BUF0213

Period scoring

NSH won 0 · BUF won 1

0
0

1

1
2

2

1
1

3

NSH
BUF

Play-by-play · 317 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  3. 3rd·19:59

    Matthew Wood shot blocked by Owen Power

    ·

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  4. 3rd·19:57

    Sam Carrick faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  5. 3rd·19:57

    Icing

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  6. 3rd·19:52

    Mattias Samuelsson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  7. 3rd·19:52

    Giveaway by Roman Josi

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  8. 3rd·19:26

    Sam Carrick faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  9. 3rd·19:26

    Goalie Stopped

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  10. 3rd·19:25

    Roman Josi Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  11. 3rd·19:19

    Matthew Wood Slap Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  12. 3rd·19:11

    Filip Forsberg Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  13. 3rd·19:06

    Roman Josi Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  14. 3rd·18:54

    Josh Doan Snap Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  15. 3rd·18:11

    Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Noah Ostlund

    ·

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  16. 3rd·18:11

    High Stick

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  17. 3rd·16:21

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Steven Stamkos

    ·

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  18. 3rd·16:21

    Puck in Benches

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  19. 3rd·16:08

    Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  20. 3rd·16:08

    Matthew Wood Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (32), Steven Stamkos (20)

    · ·

    NSH 2·BUF 3

  21. 3rd·15:55

    Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    NSH 1·BUF 3

  22. 3rd·15:55

    TV Timeout

    NSH 1·BUF 3

  23. 3rd·15:55

    Jack Quinn Interference against Joakim Kemell

    ·

    NSH 1·BUF 3

  24. 3rd·15:53

    Erik Haula Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    NSH 1·BUF 3

  25. 3rd·15:32

    Giveaway by Juuse Saros

    NSH 1·BUF 3

  26. 3rd·15:29

    Joakim Kemell hit Ryan McLeod

    ·

    NSH 1·BUF 3

  27. 3rd·15:25

    Takeaway by Ryan McLeod

    NSH 1·BUF 3

  28. 3rd·15:16

    Zachary L'Heureux shot blocked by Jason Zucker

    ·

    NSH 1·BUF 3

  29. 3rd·15:10

    Ryan Ufko shot blocked by Michael Kesselring

    ·

    NSH 1·BUF 3

  30. 3rd·14:41

    Takeaway by Alex Tuch

    NSH 1·BUF 3

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

25

Shots

24

33.3

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

8

38

Faceoffs W

24

11

Blocks

17

15

Giveaways

14

8

Takeaways

5

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·NSH +154/BUF -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497
  • Filip ForsbergNSH · LW
    DIST MI246.195
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-185

Close price

-185

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR