Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at PIT?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PHI

PHI

29-22-11

PIT

31-17-14

NHLSat, Mar 7FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasPIT -142

PHI · top performer

Denver Barkey

C · #52

1Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Rickard Rakell

RW · #67

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:41
A. BumpLW · #20	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	16:07
N. CatesLW · #27	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	19:19
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:55
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	20:47
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	-1	0	2	2	2	11:44
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	10:30
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	1	6	0	2	9:51
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	-1	0	4	2	0	10:19
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:46
O. TippettRW · #74	1	0	0	1	4	1	0	16:25
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	18:15

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	7:36
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	2	2	1	2	7	22:18
N. JuulsenD · #47	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	11:27
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	23:26
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	-1	2	0	4	0	28:26
C. YorkD · #8	0	1	2	0	1	1	0	30:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	23	3	20	.870	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:27
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	1	0	1	2	0	2	15:22
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	0	2	1	3	1	0	0	21:02
C. DewarC · #19	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	14:02
A. HayesRW · #85	0	0	-2	0	1	1	5	7:48
B. KindelC · #81	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	15:16
V. KoivunenRW · #41	0	1	-2	0	0	0	0	12:35
B. LizotteC · #46	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	15:02
A. ManthaRW · #39	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	18:51
T. NovakC · #18	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	17:10
R. RakellRW · #67	1	1	2	4	0	1	0	22:06
B. RustRW · #17	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	24:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	15:04
S. GirardD · #49	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:38
E. KarlssonD · #65	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	26:12
K. LetangD · #58	0	0	-1	2	1	0	2	23:55
R. SheaD · #5	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	15:32
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	0	1	0	3	1	0	17:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. SkinnerG · #74	16	3	13	.813	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

16.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Apr 19

PHI3@

PIT2

Apr 20

PHI3@

PIT0

Apr 22

PIT2@

PHI5

Apr 26

PIT4@

PHI2

Apr 27

PHI2@

PIT3

Apr 29

PIT0@

PHI1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+12045%

PIT-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat PIT 4-3. D. Barkey led the way — 1 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
PHI	1	2	0	0	1	4
PIT	1	2	0	0	0	3

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · PIT won 0

PHI

PIT

Play-by-play · 332 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
PHI 1·PIT 0
SO·0:00
End of OT
PHI 1·PIT 0
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
PHI 1·PIT 0
SO·0:00
Egor Chinakhov Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 1·PIT 0
SO·0:00
Trevor Zegras Goal Wrist Shot
PHI 1·PIT 0
SO·0:00
Rickard Rakell Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 1·PIT 0
SO·0:00
Matvei Michkov Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PHI 1·PIT 0
SO·0:00
Anthony Mantha Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 1·PIT 0
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
PHI 1·PIT 0
OT·5:00
End of OT
PHI 3·PIT 3
OT·4:42
Giveaway by Erik Karlsson
PHI 3·PIT 3
OT·3:54
Egor Chinakhov Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
PHI 3·PIT 3
OT·3:40
Rickard Rakell Tip-In saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 3·PIT 3
OT·3:39
Rickard Rakell Tip-In saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 3·PIT 3
OT·3:15
Erik Karlsson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 3·PIT 3
OT·2:51
Rickard Rakell faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
PHI 3·PIT 3
OT·2:51
Dan Vladar Interference against Erik Karlsson served by Trevor Zegras
· ·
PHI 3·PIT 3
OT·2:44
Egor Chinakhov Snap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 3·PIT 3
OT·1:59
Jamie Drysdale hit Rickard Rakell
·
PHI 3·PIT 3
OT·1:56
Rickard Rakell Backhand saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 3·PIT 3
OT·1:40
Kris Letang Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 3·PIT 3
OT·1:08
Blake Lizotte faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 3·PIT 3
OT·1:08
Goalie Stopped
PHI 3·PIT 3
OT·1:05
Trevor Zegras Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PHI 3·PIT 3
OT·1:04
Jamie Drysdale Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
PHI 3·PIT 3
OT·0:00
Rickard Rakell faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 3·PIT 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
PHI 3·PIT 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 3·PIT 3
3rd·19:55
Kris Letang Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 3·PIT 3
3rd·19:41
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Rickard Rakell
·
PHI 3·PIT 3

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +120/PIT -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into Pittsburgh Penguins and beat them, 4–3.

PHI +1.5 cashed (PIT lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Rickard Rakell · PIT22:120.7478.6%84.3%22:12 TOI · 0.74 iXG · 78.6% CF · 84.3% xGF
Connor Dewar · PIT14:060.5967.7%63.1%14:06 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 67.7% CF · 63.1% xGF
Egor Chinakhov · PIT21:000.5780.0%71.2%21:00 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 80.0% CF · 71.2% xGF
Trevor Zegras · PHI18:180.5238.2%55.7%18:18 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 38.2% CF · 55.7% xGF
Christian Dvorak · PHI20:540.3859.4%47.8%20:54 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 59.4% CF · 47.8% xGF
Jamie Drysdale · PHI22:360.3740.0%41.2%22:36 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 40.0% CF · 41.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Dan Vladar · PHI20–3.870-0.0820–3 · .870 SV% · -0.08 GSAx
Stuart Skinner · PIT13–3.813-1.1713–3 · .813 SV% · -1.17 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.4%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
61.4%
P(PIT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.4%
P(PIT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.4%
P(PIT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at PIT?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Philadelphia FlyersPittsburgh Penguins

Elsewhere in the NHL