Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at CGY?

The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CGY

CAR

40-17-6

CGY

25-30-7

NHLSat, Mar 7FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCAR -218

CAR · top performer

Seth Jarvis

C · #24

3Points

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

Joel Farabee

LW · #86

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	3	1	1	1	0	2	18:20
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	16:56
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	10:11
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	14:40
T. HallLW · #71	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	14:47
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:31
S. JarvisC · #24	1	2	2	2	1	1	0	19:29
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	-2	4	0	1	0	12:28
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:33
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	-1	0	6	2	0	15:30
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	18:17
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:01

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	21:53
K. MillerD · #19	0	1	-1	5	1	0	4	23:51
A. NikishinD · #21	1	0	0	1	2	2	0	16:45
M. ReillyD · #6	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	9:30
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	22:24
S. WalkerD · #26	1	0	-1	1	1	1	0	23:22

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	25	5	20	.800	58:26

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	18:03
J. BeecherC · #18	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:07
B. ColemanLW · #20	1	1	1	2	2	2	0	17:50
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	17:26
J. FarabeeLW · #86	2	1	1	4	1	0	0	18:30
M. FrostC · #16	1	2	1	4	1	1	0	17:05
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	0	0	5	1	2	10:57
R. LombergLW · #70	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:47
M. PospisilC · #76	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	12:10
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	13:18
R. StromeC · #22	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	15:07
C. ZaryC · #47	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:28

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	25:50
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	21:37
O. MaattaD · #3	0	1	-1	1	0	5	0	23:54
B. PachalD · #94	0	0	2	1	4	0	4	20:20
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	19:02
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	6:16

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. WolfG · #32	29	4	25	.862	59:46

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 30

CGY0@

CAR1

Mar 8

CAR4@

CGY5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-21869%

CGY+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat CAR 5-4. J. Farabee led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	1	0	3	4
CGY	0	3	2	5

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · CGY won 1

CAR

CGY

Play-by-play · 317 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 4·CGY 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 4·CGY 5
3rd·19:59
Alexander Nikishin shot blocked by Blake Coleman
· ·
CAR 4·CGY 5
3rd·19:48
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 4·CGY 5
3rd·19:48
Timeout - Visitor
CAR 4·CGY 5
3rd·19:48
Andrei Svechnikov Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (25), Seth Jarvis (25)
· ·
CAR 4·CGY 5
3rd·19:44
K'Andre Miller Slap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 3·CGY 5
3rd·19:00
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
CAR 3·CGY 5
3rd·19:00
Icing
CAR 3·CGY 5
3rd·18:51
Takeaway by Olli Määttä
CAR 3·CGY 5
3rd·18:01
Giveaway by Seth Jarvis
CAR 3·CGY 5
3rd·17:42
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 3·CGY 5
3rd·17:42
Joel Farabee Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Morgan Frost (18)
·
CAR 3·CGY 5
3rd·17:35
Giveaway by Jackson Blake
CAR 3·CGY 4
3rd·17:01
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Logan Stankoven
·
CAR 3·CGY 4
3rd·17:01
Icing
CAR 3·CGY 4
3rd·16:31
Jordan Staal hit Olli Maatta
·
CAR 3·CGY 4
3rd·16:16
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·CGY 4
3rd·16:16
Goalie Stopped
CAR 3·CGY 4
3rd·16:15
Eric Robinson Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CAR 3·CGY 4
3rd·16:13
K'Andre Miller Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CAR 3·CGY 4
3rd·15:52
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CAR 3·CGY 4
3rd·15:52
Icing
CAR 3·CGY 4
3rd·15:37
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CAR 3·CGY 4
3rd·15:37
Puck in Netting
CAR 3·CGY 4
3rd·15:05
Nikolaj Ehlers Slap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CAR 3·CGY 4
3rd·14:45
Seth Jarvis Slap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 3·CGY 4
3rd·14:39
Giveaway by Olli Määttä
CAR 3·CGY 4
3rd·14:35
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·CGY 4
3rd·14:35
On-Ice Official
CAR 3·CGY 4

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -218/CGY +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off Carolina Hurricanes, 5–4.

CGY +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.9%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
42.9%
P(CGY win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
42.9%
P(CGY win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
42.9%
P(CGY win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+180

Close price

+180

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

34.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at CGY?: The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Carolina HurricanesCalgary Flames

Elsewhere in the NHL