Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+1CGY
CAR

CAR

40-17-6

45
CGY

CGY

25-30-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 7FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCAR -218

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off Carolina Hurricanes, 5–4.

CGY +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

CAR
Sebastian Aho

Sebastian Aho

C · #20

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

CGY
Joel Farabee

Joel Farabee

LW · #86

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
5
CAR40-17-6CGY25-30-7
CAR

CAR

40-17-6

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CGY

CGY

25-30-7

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 30CGYCGY0@CARCAR1
Mar 8CARCAR4@CGYCGY5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CARCAR-21869%
CGYCGY+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat CAR 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CAR1034
CGY0325

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · CGY won 1

1
0

1

0
3

2

3
2

3

CAR
CGY

Play-by-play · 317 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CAR 4·CGY 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CAR 4·CGY 5

  3. 3rd·19:59

    Alexander Nikishin shot blocked by Blake Coleman

    · ·

    CAR 4·CGY 5

  4. 3rd·19:48

    Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 4·CGY 5

  5. 3rd·19:48

    Timeout - Visitor

    CAR 4·CGY 5

  6. 3rd·19:48

    Andrei Svechnikov Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (25), Seth Jarvis (25)

    · ·

    CAR 4·CGY 5

  7. 3rd·19:44

    K'Andre Miller Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    CAR 3·CGY 5

  8. 3rd·19:00

    Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Morgan Frost

    ·

    CAR 3·CGY 5

  9. 3rd·19:00

    Icing

    CAR 3·CGY 5

  10. 3rd·18:51

    Takeaway by Olli Määttä

    CAR 3·CGY 5

  11. 3rd·18:01

    Giveaway by Seth Jarvis

    CAR 3·CGY 5

  12. 3rd·17:42

    Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Sebastian Aho

    ·

    CAR 3·CGY 5

  13. 3rd·17:42

    Joel Farabee Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Morgan Frost (18)

    ·

    CAR 3·CGY 5

  14. 3rd·17:35

    Giveaway by Jackson Blake

    CAR 3·CGY 4

  15. 3rd·17:01

    Morgan Frost faceoff won against Logan Stankoven

    ·

    CAR 3·CGY 4

  16. 3rd·17:01

    Icing

    CAR 3·CGY 4

  17. 3rd·16:31

    Jordan Staal hit Olli Maatta

    ·

    CAR 3·CGY 4

  18. 3rd·16:16

    Morgan Frost faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 3·CGY 4

  19. 3rd·16:16

    Goalie Stopped

    CAR 3·CGY 4

  20. 3rd·16:15

    Eric Robinson Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    CAR 3·CGY 4

  21. 3rd·16:13

    K'Andre Miller Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    CAR 3·CGY 4

  22. 3rd·15:52

    Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    CAR 3·CGY 4

  23. 3rd·15:52

    Icing

    CAR 3·CGY 4

  24. 3rd·15:37

    Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    CAR 3·CGY 4

  25. 3rd·15:37

    Puck in Netting

    CAR 3·CGY 4

  26. 3rd·15:05

    Nikolaj Ehlers Slap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    CAR 3·CGY 4

  27. 3rd·14:45

    Seth Jarvis Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    CAR 3·CGY 4

  28. 3rd·14:39

    Giveaway by Olli Määttä

    CAR 3·CGY 4

  29. 3rd·14:35

    Morgan Frost faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 3·CGY 4

  30. 3rd·14:35

    On-Ice Official

    CAR 3·CGY 4

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

29

Shots

25

50.0

PCT

33.3

8

PIM

6

32

Faceoffs W

29

12

Blocks

10

22

Giveaways

13

7

Takeaways

6

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -218/CGY +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
    SHOT MPH100.297
  • Taylor HallCAR · LW
    BURSTS4696
  • Sebastian AhoCAR · C
    DIST MI44.795
  • Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
    BURSTS3995

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CGY favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+180

Close price

+180

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

34.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR