Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NJ

29-29-2

STL

21-29-9

NHLSat, Feb 28FinalSeriesNJ wins series 2-0VegasNJ -118

NJ · top performer

Timo Meier

RW · #28

1Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Pavel Buchnevich

LW · #89

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:52
J. BrattLW · #63	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	17:50
C. BrownRW · #16	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	16:40
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:25
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:35
A. GritsyukRW · #81	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:06
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:02
N. HischierC · #13	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	18:33
J. HughesC · #86	0	1	0	5	0	0	2	16:05
T. MeierRW · #28	1	0	0	8	2	3	2	19:16
D. MercerC · #91	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	18:26
M. TsyplakovRW · #42	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	8:53

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	20:03
D. HamiltonD · #7	1	0	1	4	0	1	2	20:28
L. HughesD · #43	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	20:10
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:56
B. PesceD · #22	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	18:21
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	21:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarkstromG · #25	26	1	25	.962	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	14:31
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	18:20
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	17:23
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	-1	0	2	0	2	8:41
D. HollowayLW · #81	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	19:22
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:59
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	15:50
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	18:11
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	20:04
P. SuterC · #22	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	19:51
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:03
N. WalkerLW · #26	0	0	-1	0	6	0	0	7:51

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	21:43
J. FaulkD · #72	0	0	-2	2	2	1	0	23:15
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	21:22
M. KesselD · #51	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	13:39
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	1	2	3	3	0	20:35
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	-1	1	2	3	0	13:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BinningtonG · #50	32	2	30	.938	56:16

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NJ wins series 2-0

Nov 27

STL2@

NJ3

Feb 28

NJ3@

STL1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJ-11854%

STL-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 17 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat STL 3-1. T. Meier led the way — 1 G · 8 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NJ	0	2	1	3
STL	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

NJ won 1 · STL won 0

STL

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NJ 3·STL 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NJ 3·STL 1
3rd·19:55
Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
NJ 3·STL 1
3rd·19:55
Nico Hischier Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (30), Connor Brown (13)
· ·
NJ 3·STL 1
3rd·19:26
Pius Suter faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 2·STL 1
3rd·19:26
Icing
NJ 2·STL 1
3rd·19:15
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
NJ 2·STL 1
3rd·19:15
Puck in Benches
NJ 2·STL 1
3rd·19:12
Takeaway by Dougie Hamilton
NJ 2·STL 1
3rd·18:42
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 2·STL 1
3rd·18:42
Timeout - Visitor
NJ 2·STL 1
3rd·18:42
Pavel Buchnevich Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (11)
·
NJ 2·STL 1
3rd·18:38
Jacob Markstrom shot blocked by Pavel Buchnevich
·
NJ 2·STL 0
3rd·18:12
Giveaway by Brett Pesce
NJ 2·STL 0
3rd·18:07
Jimmy Snuggerud Slap Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
NJ 2·STL 0
3rd·17:58
Pius Suter faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 2·STL 0
3rd·17:58
Icing
NJ 2·STL 0
3rd·17:53
Dawson Mercer Wrist Shot Wide Left
NJ 2·STL 0
3rd·17:51
Giveaway by Jordan Kyrou
NJ 2·STL 0
3rd·17:38
Jordan Kyrou shot blocked by Brett Pesce
·
NJ 2·STL 0
3rd·17:22
Dylan Holloway faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 2·STL 0
3rd·17:22
Puck Frozen - Skater
NJ 2·STL 0
3rd·17:12
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NJ 2·STL 0
3rd·17:12
Icing
NJ 2·STL 0
3rd·17:08
Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot Wide Right
NJ 2·STL 0
3rd·17:07
Giveaway by Cam Fowler
NJ 2·STL 0
3rd·16:44
Cody Glass faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
NJ 2·STL 0
3rd·16:44
Puck in Netting
NJ 2·STL 0
3rd·16:41
Pius Suter Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 2·STL 0
3rd·16:40
Dylan Holloway shot blocked by Brett Pesce
·
NJ 2·STL 0

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·NJ -118/STL -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils went into St. Louis Blues and beat them, 3–1.

NJ -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.7%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
52.7%
P(STL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.7%
P(STL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.7%
P(STL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

New Jersey DevilsSt. Louis Blues

Elsewhere in the NHL