Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at LA?

The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2LA

CGY

24-28-6

24-21-14

NHLSat, Feb 28FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasLA -148

CGY · top performer

Nazem Kadri

C · #91

0Points

—

SOG

LA · top performer

Alex Laferriere

RW · #14

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	16:56
J. BeecherC · #18	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	9:03
B. ColemanLW · #20	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:23
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	17:32
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	18:08
M. FrostC · #16	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:11
M. GridinRW · #92	0	0	-1	4	0	2	0	17:00
N. KadriC · #91	0	0	-2	5	1	0	0	18:00
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	-1	3	7	2	0	13:45
M. PospisilC · #76	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:21
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	14:33
C. ZaryC · #47	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	13:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	22:56
J. HanleyD · #44	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	13:57
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	21:47
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:28
M. WeegarD · #52	0	0	-2	1	0	3	0	23:17
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	22:15

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. WolfG · #32	36	1	35	.972	58:33

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	0	1	1	2	2	2	0	20:16
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	13:35
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	11:28
A. KempeRW · #9	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	16:47
A. KopitarC · #11	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	17:31
A. LaferriereRW · #14	1	0	1	7	3	1	0	19:38
J. MalottLW · #39	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	9:43
T. MooreLW · #12	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	18:48
A. PanarinLW · #72	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	17:33
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:44
A. TurcotteC · #15	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	10:40
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	10:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	0	1	0	5	1	0	22:27
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	23:06
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	0	0	4	0	5	0	22:58
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	17:53
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	1	2	1	2	0	20:18
J. MoverareD · #43	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	13:25

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ForsbergG · #31	29	0	29	1.000	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 14

CGY2@

LA1

Mar 1

CGY0@

LA2today

Mar 25

LA2@

CGY3

Apr 17

LA1@

CGY3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+12445%

LA-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat CGY 2-0. A. Laferriere led the way — 1 G · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	0	0	0	0
LA	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

CGY won 0 · LA won 2

CGY

Play-by-play · 334 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 0·LA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 0·LA 2
3rd·19:46
Zayne Parekh shot blocked by Quinton Byfield
·
CGY 0·LA 2
3rd·19:22
Alex Laferriere faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 0·LA 2
3rd·19:22
Adrian Kempe Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Artemi Panarin (41)
·
CGY 0·LA 2
3rd·19:10
Adam Klapka hit Joel Edmundson
·
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·18:57
Nazem Kadri faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·18:57
Icing
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·18:52
Joel Edmundson Wrist Shot Wide Left
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·18:48
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·18:48
Puck in Crowd
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·18:43
Blake Coleman Tip-In Wide Right
·
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·18:05
Adam Klapka hit Anze Kopitar
·
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·17:57
Joel Farabee Deflected saved by Anton Forsberg
·
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·17:46
Adam Klapka shot blocked by Brandt Clarke
·
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·17:13
Giveaway by Trevor Moore
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·17:05
Alex Laferriere Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·16:57
Takeaway by Brian Dumoulin
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·16:39
Mikael Backlund shot blocked by Quinton Byfield
·
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·16:22
MacKenzie Weegar Snap Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·16:07
Martin Pospisil hit Brian Dumoulin
·
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·15:14
Nazem Kadri faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·15:14
Icing
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·14:56
Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·14:00
Quinton Byfield faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·14:00
Off-side
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·13:33
Nazem Kadri shot blocked by Mikey Anderson
·
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·12:58
Samuel Helenius faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·12:58
Off-side
CGY 0·LA 1
3rd·12:47
Samuel Helenius faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
CGY 0·LA 1

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·CGY +124/LA -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

os Angeles Kings held off Calgary Flames, 2–0.

LA -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
55.5%
P(LA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.5%
P(LA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.5%
P(LA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at LA?: The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Calgary FlamesLos Angeles Kings

Elsewhere in the NHL