Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at CAR?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CAR

DET

34-20-6

CAR

38-15-6

NHLSat, Feb 28FinalSeriesCAR wins series 2-1VegasCAR -192

DET · top performer

Patrick Kane

RW · #88

1Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Jackson Blake

RW · #53

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	14:35
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	1	-1	2	1	1	0	16:31
A. CoppC · #18	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	15:47
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	15:23
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:17
P. KaneRW · #88	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:12
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	-1	2	2	4	0	15:18
D. LarkinC · #71	0	1	0	4	1	1	2	16:39
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	-1	1	2	3	0	12:17
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:16
D. ShineRW · #65	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	9:05
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	9:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	0	0	2	5	0	21:01
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	0	5	3	2	2	23:39
S. EdvinssonD · #77	1	0	0	1	2	0	4	21:37
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	-2	1	1	2	2	16:12
A. Sandin-PellikkaD · #44	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	12:21
M. SeiderD · #53	0	1	0	2	7	2	0	25:07

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. TalbotG · #39	36	5	31	.861	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	1	0	0	4	0	1	0	17:53
J. BlakeRW · #53	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	17:47
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	8:55
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:09
T. HallLW · #71	1	2	2	2	1	1	0	16:33
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:30
S. JarvisC · #24	0	1	-1	5	1	0	0	16:56
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:11
E. RobinsonLW · #50	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	9:21
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	17:21
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:23
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	-1	2	5	0	2	17:50

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	19:00
S. GostisbehereD · #4	1	2	2	2	2	0	0	19:43
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	21:57
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	16:17
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	21:03
S. WalkerD · #26	0	1	1	1	1	0	2	19:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	29	2	27	.931	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CAR wins series 2-1

Dec 28

DET2@

CAR5

Jan 13

CAR3@

DET4

Mar 1

DET2@

CAR5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DET+16038%

CAR-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 29 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat DET 5-2. J. Blake led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DET	0	2	0	2
CAR	2	1	2	5

Period scoring

DET won 1 · CAR won 2

DET

CAR

Play-by-play · 316 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·19:47
Mark Jankowski Snap Shot Short
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·19:43
William Carrier Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·19:16
Moritz Seider hit Jordan Martinook
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·19:01
Shayne Gostisbehere Slap Shot saved by Cam Talbot
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·18:34
Moritz Seider hit Jordan Martinook
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·18:31
Eric Robinson Tip-In saved by Cam Talbot
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·18:23
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Marco Kasper
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·18:23
Puck in Crowd
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·18:20
Shayne Gostisbehere shot blocked by Jacob Bernard-Docker
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·17:04
Moritz Seider hit Taylor Hall
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·16:13
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Michael Rasmussen
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·15:29
Ben Chiarot Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·15:26
Michael Rasmussen faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·15:26
Goalie Stopped
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·15:24
Sebastian Aho Snap Shot saved by Cam Talbot
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·15:16
Andrei Svechnikov Wrist Shot saved by Cam Talbot
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·15:09
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Marco Kasper
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·15:09
Simon Edvinsson High-sticking - double minor against Taylor Hall
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·14:48
Logan Stankoven faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·14:48
Puck in Crowd
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·14:46
Jaccob Slavin Snap Shot saved by Cam Talbot
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·14:44
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Dylan Larkin
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·14:44
Icing
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·14:24
Moritz Seider hit Eric Robinson
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·14:09
Mark Jankowski Snap Shot saved by Cam Talbot
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·13:39
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·13:39
Puck in Netting
DET 2·CAR 5
3rd·13:36
Andrei Svechnikov shot blocked by Jacob Bernard-Docker
·
DET 2·CAR 5

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET +160/CAR -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Detroit Red Wings, 5–2.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.7%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
60.7%
P(CAR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
60.7%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
60.7%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at CAR?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Detroit Red WingsCarolina Hurricanes

Elsewhere in the NHL