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FINAL+3CAR
DET

DET

34-20-6

25
CAR

CAR

38-15-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Feb 28FinalSeriesCAR wins series 2-1VegasCAR -192

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Detroit Red Wings, 5–2.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
J.T. Compher

J.T. Compher

LW · #37

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

CAR
Taylor Hall

Taylor Hall

LW · #71

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Detroit Red Wings at Carolina Hurricanes · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
5
DET34-20-6CAR38-15-6
DET

DET

34-20-6

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CAR

CAR

38-15-6

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

4

Season series

CAR wins series 2-1

Dec 28DETDET2@CARCAR5
Jan 13CARCAR3@DETDET4
Mar 1DETDET2@CARCAR5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET+16038%
CARCAR-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat DET 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
DET0202
CAR2125

Period scoring

DET won 1 · CAR won 2

0
2

1

2
1

2

0
2

3

DET
CAR

Play-by-play · 316 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    DET 2·CAR 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    DET 2·CAR 5

  3. 3rd·19:47

    Mark Jankowski Snap Shot Short

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  4. 3rd·19:43

    William Carrier Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  5. 3rd·19:16

    Moritz Seider hit Jordan Martinook

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  6. 3rd·19:01

    Shayne Gostisbehere Slap Shot saved by Cam Talbot

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  7. 3rd·18:34

    Moritz Seider hit Jordan Martinook

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  8. 3rd·18:31

    Eric Robinson Tip-In saved by Cam Talbot

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  9. 3rd·18:23

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Marco Kasper

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  10. 3rd·18:23

    Puck in Crowd

    DET 2·CAR 5

  11. 3rd·18:20

    Shayne Gostisbehere shot blocked by Jacob Bernard-Docker

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  12. 3rd·17:04

    Moritz Seider hit Taylor Hall

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  13. 3rd·16:13

    Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Michael Rasmussen

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  14. 3rd·15:29

    Ben Chiarot Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  15. 3rd·15:26

    Michael Rasmussen faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  16. 3rd·15:26

    Goalie Stopped

    DET 2·CAR 5

  17. 3rd·15:24

    Sebastian Aho Snap Shot saved by Cam Talbot

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  18. 3rd·15:16

    Andrei Svechnikov Wrist Shot saved by Cam Talbot

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  19. 3rd·15:09

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Marco Kasper

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  20. 3rd·15:09

    Simon Edvinsson High-sticking - double minor against Taylor Hall

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  21. 3rd·14:48

    Logan Stankoven faceoff won against J.T. Compher

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  22. 3rd·14:48

    Puck in Crowd

    DET 2·CAR 5

  23. 3rd·14:46

    Jaccob Slavin Snap Shot saved by Cam Talbot

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  24. 3rd·14:44

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Dylan Larkin

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  25. 3rd·14:44

    Icing

    DET 2·CAR 5

  26. 3rd·14:24

    Moritz Seider hit Eric Robinson

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  27. 3rd·14:09

    Mark Jankowski Snap Shot saved by Cam Talbot

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  28. 3rd·13:39

    Andrew Copp faceoff won against Mark Jankowski

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

  29. 3rd·13:39

    Puck in Netting

    DET 2·CAR 5

  30. 3rd·13:36

    Andrei Svechnikov shot blocked by Jacob Bernard-Docker

    ·

    DET 2·CAR 5

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

29

Shots

36

0.0

PCT

25.0

10

PIM

4

26

Faceoffs W

31

23

Blocks

6

14

Giveaways

20

2

Takeaways

8

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET +160/CAR -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Taylor HallCAR · LW
    BURSTS4696
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Sebastian AhoCAR · C
    DIST MI44.795

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CAR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR