Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at COL?

The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2COL

CHI

22-28-9

COL

39-10-9

NHLSat, Feb 28FinalSeriesCOL leads series 2-0VegasCOL -360

CHI · top performer

Connor Bedard

C · #98

1Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Cale Makar

D · #8

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	1	0	-2	3	1	1	2	20:33
T. BertuzziLW · #59	0	1	-2	1	1	2	0	19:36
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	0	-1	1	1	0	2	16:13
C. DachC · #34	0	0	0	1	5	0	2	7:56
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	17:37
R. DonatoC · #8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:27
N. FolignoLW · #17	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:48
R. GreeneC · #20	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	14:52
I. MikheyevRW · #95	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:29
O. MooreC · #11	0	0	-1	2	1	0	2	11:21
F. NazarC · #91	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	16:40
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	1	-2	0	0	0	0	18:43

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	20:44
M. GrzelcykD · #48	0	0	-2	1	1	2	0	22:17
K. KorchinskiD · #14	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	8:24
A. LevshunovD · #55	0	0	-2	0	1	2	0	19:52
C. MurphyD · #5	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	17:08
A. VlasicD · #72	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	23:09

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KnightG · #30	34	2	32	.941	58:11

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	4:13
G. BrindleyC · #54	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	3:26
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:00
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:11
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	11:26
G. LandeskogLW · #92	0	0	2	4	0	1	2	22:16
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	16:53
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	2	2	6	1	0	0	23:32
M. NecasC · #88	0	2	2	2	1	1	0	23:05
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	21:57
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:54
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:26

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	17:33
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	16:57
C. MakarD · #8	2	0	2	3	0	2	0	23:49
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	18:18
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	16:28
D. ToewsD · #7	0	1	2	1	1	0	4	21:15

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	15	1	14	.933	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

COL leads series 2-0

Nov 24

COL1@

CHI0

Feb 28

CHI1@

COL3today

Mar 21

COL4@

CHI1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+28526%

COL-36078%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat CHI 3-1. C. Makar led the way — 2 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CHI	1	0	0	1
COL	0	1	2	3

Period scoring

CHI won 1 · COL won 2

CHI

COL

Play-by-play · 297 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CHI 1·COL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CHI 1·COL 3
3rd·19:32
Jack Drury faceoff won against Jason Dickinson
·
CHI 1·COL 3
3rd·19:32
Puck in Crowd
CHI 1·COL 3
3rd·19:09
Giveaway by Frank Nazar
CHI 1·COL 3
3rd·18:54
Teuvo Teravainen shot blocked by Tyler Bertuzzi
·
CHI 1·COL 3
3rd·18:47
Teuvo Teravainen shot blocked by Brock Nelson
·
CHI 1·COL 3
3rd·18:44
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Nick Foligno
·
CHI 1·COL 3
3rd·18:44
Puck in Benches
CHI 1·COL 3
3rd·18:33
Nick Foligno faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
CHI 1·COL 3
3rd·18:33
Cale Makar Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (57), Martin Necas (43)
· ·
CHI 1·COL 3
3rd·17:31
Louis Crevier hit Ross Colton
·
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·17:31
Takeaway by Louis Crevier
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·16:21
Matt Grzelcyk hit Artturi Lehkonen
·
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·16:02
Frank Nazar faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·16:02
Goalie Stopped
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·16:00
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·15:42
Gabriel Landeskog Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·15:33
Gabriel Landeskog shot blocked by Alex Vlasic
·
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·15:32
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Connor Bedard
·
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·15:32
On-Ice Official
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·15:29
Devon Toews Slap Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·15:08
Connor Bedard faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·15:08
Goalie Stopped
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·15:06
Josh Manson Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·15:05
Colton Dach hit Valeri Nichushkin
· ·
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·14:36
Nick Foligno hit Artturi Lehkonen
·
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·14:10
Devon Toews Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·13:50
Giveaway by Connor Bedard
CHI 1·COL 2
3rd·13:46
Jack Drury faceoff won against Connor Bedard
·
CHI 1·COL 2

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·CHI +285/COL -360

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche held off Chicago Blackhawks, 3–1.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.6%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
71.6%
P(COL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
71.6%
P(COL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
71.6%
P(COL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+285

Close price

+285

Open no-vig

24.9%

Close no-vig

24.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at COL?: The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Chicago BlackhawksColorado Avalanche

Elsewhere in the NHL