Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4SEA

VAN

18-34-7

SEA

28-22-9

NHLSat, Feb 28FinalSeriesSEA leads series 2-1VegasSEA -162

VAN · top performer

Conor Garland

RW · #8

1Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Jordan Eberle

RW · #7

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	15:15
B. BoeserRW · #6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:53
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	16:23
C. GarlandRW · #8	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	16:27
N. HoglanderLW · #21	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	11:06
D. KampfC · #64	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:30
E. KaneLW · #91	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	16:42
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	-2	3	1	0	0	14:22
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	0	3	0	0	12	12:42
L. OhgrenLW · #92	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	14:05
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	14:20
M. RossiC · #93	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	21:50
F. HronekD · #17	0	0	-3	1	4	0	2	23:59
P. JosephD · #7	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	13:26
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	20:31
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	-1	1	0	4	0	17:08
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	21:20

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LankinenG · #32	24	4	20	.833	57:37

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	1	0	2	4	0	0	0	16:42
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	12:58
J. EberleRW · #7	2	1	2	3	1	1	0	15:59
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	14:19
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	13:59
J. McCannLW · #19	0	1	2	0	0	0	2	15:42
J. MelansonRW · #63	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	11:45
B. MeyersC · #59	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	15:21
J. SchwartzC · #17	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	14:33
C. StephensonC · #9	1	2	2	2	0	0	0	15:01
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	14:12
S. WrightC · #51	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:20
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	15:57
C. FleuryD · #8	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:19
A. LarssonD · #6	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	23:25
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	22:56
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	1	2	1	2	1	0	22:20

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DaccordG · #35	28	1	27	.964	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VAN

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SEA leads series 2-1

Dec 30

VAN3@

SEA2

Jan 3

SEA4@

VAN3

Mar 1

VAN1@

SEA5today

Mar 15

SEA5@

VAN2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VAN+13642%

SEA-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat VAN 5-1. J. Eberle led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VAN	0	1	0	1
SEA	2	1	2	5

Period scoring

VAN won 0 · SEA won 2

VAN

SEA

Play-by-play · 273 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VAN 1·SEA 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VAN 1·SEA 5
3rd·19:43
Linus Karlsson Snap Shot Wide Right
·
VAN 1·SEA 5
3rd·19:17
Teddy Blueger faceoff won against Shane Wright
·
VAN 1·SEA 5
3rd·19:17
Goalie Stopped
VAN 1·SEA 5
3rd·19:14
Adam Larsson Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 1·SEA 5
3rd·19:08
Giveaway by Pierre-Olivier Joseph
VAN 1·SEA 5
3rd·18:37
Zeev Buium shot blocked by Ben Meyers
·
VAN 1·SEA 5
3rd·17:58
Jacob Melanson Snap Shot Wide Right
·
VAN 1·SEA 5
3rd·17:46
Ben Meyers faceoff won against David Kampf
·
VAN 1·SEA 5
3rd·17:46
Puck in Netting
VAN 1·SEA 5
3rd·17:44
Pierre-Olivier Joseph Slap Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
VAN 1·SEA 5
3rd·17:00
Shane Wright faceoff won against Marco Rossi
·
VAN 1·SEA 5
3rd·17:00
Objects on Ice
VAN 1·SEA 5
3rd·17:00
Jordan Eberle Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (16), Jamie Oleksiak (7)
· ·
VAN 1·SEA 5
3rd·16:43
Giveaway by Marcus Pettersson
· ·
VAN 1·SEA 4
3rd·15:54
Jared McCann shot blocked by Tom Willander
·
VAN 1·SEA 4
3rd·15:48
Freddy Gaudreau faceoff won against Teddy Blueger
·
VAN 1·SEA 4
3rd·15:48
Icing
VAN 1·SEA 4
3rd·15:43
Joey Daccord Wrist Shot Wide Left
VAN 1·SEA 4
3rd·15:25
Filip Hronek shot blocked by Freddy Gaudreau
·
VAN 1·SEA 4
3rd·15:08
Conor Garland Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
VAN 1·SEA 4
3rd·15:00
Filip Hronek Slap Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
VAN 1·SEA 4
3rd·14:37
Marco Rossi faceoff won against Ben Meyers
·
VAN 1·SEA 4
3rd·14:37
Goalie Stopped
VAN 1·SEA 4
3rd·14:35
Zeev Buium Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
VAN 1·SEA 4
3rd·14:30
Tom Willander Backhand saved by Joey Daccord
·
VAN 1·SEA 4
3rd·14:19
Takeaway by Brock Boeser
VAN 1·SEA 4
3rd·14:15
Brandon Montour Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
·
VAN 1·SEA 4
3rd·13:54
Filip Hronek hit Shane Wright
·
VAN 1·SEA 4

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 6.5·VAN +136/SEA -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

eattle Kraken held off Vancouver Canucks, 5–1.

SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
66.6%
P(SEA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
66.6%
P(SEA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
66.6%
P(SEA win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vancouver CanucksSeattle Kraken

Elsewhere in the NHL