Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at SJ?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SJ

EDM

29-24-8

28-25-4

NHLSat, Feb 28FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasEDM -162

EDM · top performer

Evan Bouchard

D · #2

3Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DraisaitlC · #29	1	0	0	5	0	0	0	21:47
T. FredericC · #10	1	0	1	2	5	1	0	12:38
A. HenriqueC · #19	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:32
Z. HymanLW · #18	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	20:57
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	13:32
C. LazarC · #20	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	9:09
A. MangiapaneLW · #88	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	10:20
C. McDavidC · #97	0	3	-2	3	4	0	0	21:34
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	0	0	-2	2	1	1	0	17:37
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	14:10
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	14:44
M. SavoieC · #22	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	13:34

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	1	2	0	3	0	1	0	23:24
M. EkholmD · #14	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	18:45
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:45
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	21:37
S. StastneyD · #24	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	16:21
J. WalmanD · #96	1	0	-1	1	0	0	0	20:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	33	5	28	.848	58:15

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	1	0	0	7	1	1	0	21:17
W. EklundLW · #72	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:31
B. GoodrowC · #23	1	0	0	1	3	1	0	11:49
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	16:59
P. KurashevC · #96	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	13:32
M. MisaC · #77	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	12:16
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	1	0	1	2	1	0	10:19
P. RegendaLW · #84	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	10:48
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	1	5	2	0	2	19:00
W. SmithC · #2	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	18:43
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	11:07
A. WennbergC · #21	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	18:30

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	-1	0	3	1	2	20:01
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	15:17
M. FerraroD · #38	0	1	2	0	1	2	0	21:11
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	19:15
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	1	0	2	1	0	2	0	18:27
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	22:17

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. AskarovG · #30	24	4	20	.833	59:54

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 30

SJ3@

EDM4

Feb 28

EDM4@

SJ5today

Mar 18

SJ3@

EDM5

Apr 9

EDM5@

SJ2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDM-16262%

SJ+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat EDM 5-4. M. Celebrini led the way — 1 G · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
EDM	1	1	2	4
SJ	3	0	2	5

Period scoring

EDM won 1 · SJ won 1

EDM

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:58
Evan Bouchard Slap Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:56
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:56
Goalie Stopped
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:55
Connor McDavid Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:52
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:52
Goalie Stopped
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:50
Leon Draisaitl Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:47
Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Collin Graf
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:46
Giveaway by Mario Ferraro
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:23
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:23
Goalie Stopped
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:21
Evan Bouchard Snap Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:13
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Slap Shot Hit Right Post
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:09
Leon Draisaitl Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·18:48
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·18:48
Timeout - Visitor
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·18:48
Vincent Desharnais Hooking against Zach Hyman
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·17:36
Barclay Goodrow hit Darnell Nurse
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·17:18
Dmitry Orlov hit Connor McDavid
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·17:02
Takeaway by Collin Graf
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·16:36
Vasily Podkolzin hit Mario Ferraro
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·16:15
Giveaway by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·16:02
Vasily Podkolzin hit Vincent Desharnais
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·15:53
Vincent Desharnais Slap Shot Wide Left
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·15:34
Matt Savoie Tip-In saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·15:01
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Jack Roslovic
·
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·15:01
Icing
EDM 4·SJ 5
3rd·14:27
Vincent Desharnais hit Zach Hyman
·
EDM 4·SJ 5

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM -162/SJ +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks held off Edmonton Oilers, 5–4.

SJ +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.4%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
56.4%
P(SJ win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.4%
P(SJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.4%
P(SJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at SJ?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Edmonton OilersSan Jose Sharks

Elsewhere in the NHL