Live · 4
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FINAL+1SJ
EDM

EDM

29-24-8

45
SJ

SJ

28-25-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Feb 28FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasEDM -162

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks held off Edmonton Oilers, 5–4.

SJ +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

EDM · top performer

EDM
Connor McDavid

Connor McDavid

C · #97

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

SJ
Michael Misa

Michael Misa

C · #77

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
5
EDM29-24-8SJ28-25-4
EDM

EDM

29-24-8

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
SJ

SJ

28-25-4

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 30SJSJ3@EDMEDM4
Feb 28EDMEDM4@SJSJ5today
Mar 18SJSJ3@EDMEDM5
Apr 9EDMEDM5@SJSJ2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDMEDM-16262%
SJSJ+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat EDM 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
EDM1124
SJ3025

Period scoring

EDM won 1 · SJ won 1

1
3

1

1
0

2

2
2

3

EDM
SJ

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Evan Bouchard Slap Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  4. 3rd·19:56

    Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  5. 3rd·19:56

    Goalie Stopped

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  6. 3rd·19:55

    Connor McDavid Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  7. 3rd·19:52

    Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  8. 3rd·19:52

    Goalie Stopped

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  9. 3rd·19:50

    Leon Draisaitl Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  10. 3rd·19:47

    Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Collin Graf

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  11. 3rd·19:46

    Giveaway by Mario Ferraro

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  12. 3rd·19:23

    Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  13. 3rd·19:23

    Goalie Stopped

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  14. 3rd·19:21

    Evan Bouchard Snap Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  15. 3rd·19:13

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Slap Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  16. 3rd·19:09

    Leon Draisaitl Wrist Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  17. 3rd·18:48

    Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  18. 3rd·18:48

    Timeout - Visitor

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  19. 3rd·18:48

    Vincent Desharnais Hooking against Zach Hyman

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  20. 3rd·17:36

    Barclay Goodrow hit Darnell Nurse

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  21. 3rd·17:18

    Dmitry Orlov hit Connor McDavid

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  22. 3rd·17:02

    Takeaway by Collin Graf

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  23. 3rd·16:36

    Vasily Podkolzin hit Mario Ferraro

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  24. 3rd·16:15

    Giveaway by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  25. 3rd·16:02

    Vasily Podkolzin hit Vincent Desharnais

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  26. 3rd·15:53

    Vincent Desharnais Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  27. 3rd·15:34

    Matt Savoie Tip-In saved by Yaroslav Askarov

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  28. 3rd·15:01

    Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Jack Roslovic

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  29. 3rd·15:01

    Icing

    EDM 4·SJ 5

  30. 3rd·14:27

    Vincent Desharnais hit Zach Hyman

    ·

    EDM 4·SJ 5

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

SJ

Home

24

Shots

33

33.3

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

6

31

Faceoffs W

29

10

Blocks

15

19

Giveaways

22

3

Takeaways

6

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM -162/SJ +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498
  • Evan BouchardEDM · D
    SHOT MPH97.395
  • Darnell NurseEDM · D
    BURSTS1389
  • Spencer StastneyEDM · D
    BURSTS6788

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · SJ favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR