Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+4MTL
WSH

WSH

31-24-7

26
MTL

MTL

33-17-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Feb 28FinalSeriesWSH wins series 2-1VegasMTL -162

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Washington Capitals, 6–2.

MTL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Anthony Beauvillier

Anthony Beauvillier

LW · #72

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

MTL
Nick Suzuki

Nick Suzuki

C · #14

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
6
WSH31-24-7MTL33-17-9
WSH

WSH

31-24-7

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MTL

MTL

33-17-9

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

10

Season series

WSH wins series 2-1

Nov 21WSHWSH8@MTLMTL4
Jan 14MTLMTL2@WSHWSH3
Mar 1WSHWSH2@MTLMTL6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+13642%
MTLMTL-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat WSH 6-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
WSH1012
MTL2226

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · MTL won 3

1
2

1

0
2

2

1
2

3

WSH
MTL

Play-by-play · 291 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    WSH 2·MTL 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    WSH 2·MTL 6

  3. 3rd·19:42

    Jake Evans faceoff won against Nic Dowd

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 6

  4. 3rd·19:42

    Puck in Benches

    WSH 2·MTL 6

  5. 3rd·19:29

    Giveaway by Declan Chisholm

    WSH 2·MTL 6

  6. 3rd·19:22

    Justin Sourdif Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 6

  7. 3rd·18:36

    Mike Matheson Snap Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 6

  8. 3rd·18:35

    Oliver Kapanen faceoff won against Justin Sourdif

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 6

  9. 3rd·18:35

    Jake Evans Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    WSH 2·MTL 6

  10. 3rd·18:29

    Tom Wilson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 5

  11. 3rd·18:28

    Dylan Strome shot blocked by Tom Wilson

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 5

  12. 3rd·18:11

    Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Jake Evans

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 5

  13. 3rd·18:05

    Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 5

  14. 3rd·17:59

    Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Jake Evans

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 5

  15. 3rd·17:37

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 5

  16. 3rd·17:37

    Alexandre Carrier Holding the stick against Brandon Duhaime

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 5

  17. 3rd·17:16

    Brandon Duhaime Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 5

  18. 3rd·16:47

    Giveaway by Mike Matheson

    WSH 2·MTL 5

  19. 3rd·16:44

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Justin Sourdif

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 5

  20. 3rd·16:44

    Nick Suzuki Goal (19) Backhand, assists: none

    WSH 2·MTL 5

  21. 3rd·16:34

    Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Phillip Danault

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 4

  22. 3rd·16:34

    Goalie Stopped

    WSH 2·MTL 4

  23. 3rd·16:32

    Alex Ovechkin Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 4

  24. 3rd·16:23

    Giveaway by Josh Anderson

    WSH 2·MTL 4

  25. 3rd·16:03

    Giveaway by Mike Matheson

    WSH 2·MTL 4

  26. 3rd·15:51

    Giveaway by Matt Roy

    WSH 2·MTL 4

  27. 3rd·15:49

    Martin Fehervary hit Kirby Dach

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 4

  28. 3rd·14:33

    Cole Caufield Snap Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 4

  29. 3rd·14:27

    Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 4

  30. 3rd·14:23

    Lane Hutson shot blocked by Anthony Beauvillier

    ·

    WSH 2·MTL 4

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

29

Shots

25

0.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

10

27

Faceoffs W

27

13

Blocks

12

15

Giveaways

16

4

Takeaways

3

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH +136/MTL -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MTL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MTL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Alex OvechkinWSH
    3.5± 1.4high
  • Cole CaufieldMTL
    2.8± 1.4high
  • Ryan LeonardWSH
    2.5± 0.9high

Goals

  • Cole CaufieldMTL
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Alex OvechkinWSH
    0.5± 1.1high
  • Tom WilsonWSH
    0.5± 0.7high

Points

  • Alex OvechkinWSH
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Ilya ProtasWSH
    1.0± 1.9low
  • Cole CaufieldMTL
    0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR