NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MTL

WSH

31-24-7

MTL

33-17-9

NHLSat, Feb 28FinalSeriesWSH wins series 2-1VegasMTL -162

WSH · top performer

Alex Ovechkin

LW · #8

2Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	12:42
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	-1	1	2	1	2	14:48
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	0	-4	3	2	0	0	18:22
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	10:43
E. FrankC · #53	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	11:30
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	0	-2	1	1	0	2	15:09
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	0	-1	3	1	0	2	15:09
A. OvechkinLW · #8	2	0	-2	6	2	0	0	15:30
A. ProtasC · #21	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	18:05
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	12:43
D. StromeC · #17	0	1	0	3	0	1	0	16:07
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	0	-3	1	3	0	0	19:16

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. ChisholmD · #47	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	13:00
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	0	-5	2	0	0	0	23:20
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	0	1	4	3	0	21:28
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	-2	1	0	3	0	20:58
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	-2	0	1	2	0	19:06
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	15:12

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. LindgrenG · #79	23	4	19	.826	58:52

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:40
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	12:24
C. CaufieldRW · #13	2	0	3	5	1	2	0	16:19
K. DachC · #77	1	0	2	1	0	0	2	13:44
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:53
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	12:44
J. EvansC · #71	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	14:25
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	13:47
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	11:41
A. NewhookC · #15	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	13:45
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	14:23
N. SuzukiC · #14	1	2	4	2	0	1	0	18:25

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	1	2	0	1	2	18:01
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	16:35
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	1	1	2	3	0	24:48
L. HutsonD · #48	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	20:14
M. MathesonD · #8	1	0	4	3	1	0	2	24:04
J. StrubleD · #47	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	11:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	29	2	27	.931	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WSH wins series 2-1

Nov 21

WSH8@

MTL4

Jan 14

MTL2@

WSH3

Mar 1

WSH2@

MTL6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+13642%

MTL-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat WSH 6-2. C. Caufield led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WSH	1	0	1	2
MTL	2	2	2	6

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · MTL won 3

WSH

MTL

Play-by-play · 291 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WSH 2·MTL 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 2·MTL 6
3rd·19:42
Jake Evans faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
WSH 2·MTL 6
3rd·19:42
Puck in Benches
WSH 2·MTL 6
3rd·19:29
Giveaway by Declan Chisholm
WSH 2·MTL 6
3rd·19:22
Justin Sourdif Snap Shot Wide Right
·
WSH 2·MTL 6
3rd·18:36
Mike Matheson Snap Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
WSH 2·MTL 6
3rd·18:35
Oliver Kapanen faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
WSH 2·MTL 6
3rd·18:35
Jake Evans Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none
WSH 2·MTL 6
3rd·18:29
Tom Wilson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
WSH 2·MTL 5
3rd·18:28
Dylan Strome shot blocked by Tom Wilson
·
WSH 2·MTL 5
3rd·18:11
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Jake Evans
·
WSH 2·MTL 5
3rd·18:05
Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
·
WSH 2·MTL 5
3rd·17:59
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Jake Evans
·
WSH 2·MTL 5
3rd·17:37
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois
·
WSH 2·MTL 5
3rd·17:37
Alexandre Carrier Holding the stick against Brandon Duhaime
·
WSH 2·MTL 5
3rd·17:16
Brandon Duhaime Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
WSH 2·MTL 5
3rd·16:47
Giveaway by Mike Matheson
WSH 2·MTL 5
3rd·16:44
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
WSH 2·MTL 5
3rd·16:44
Nick Suzuki Goal (19) Backhand, assists: none
WSH 2·MTL 5
3rd·16:34
Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
WSH 2·MTL 4
3rd·16:34
Goalie Stopped
WSH 2·MTL 4
3rd·16:32
Alex Ovechkin Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
WSH 2·MTL 4
3rd·16:23
Giveaway by Josh Anderson
WSH 2·MTL 4
3rd·16:03
Giveaway by Mike Matheson
WSH 2·MTL 4
3rd·15:51
Giveaway by Matt Roy
WSH 2·MTL 4
3rd·15:49
Martin Fehervary hit Kirby Dach
·
WSH 2·MTL 4
3rd·14:33
Cole Caufield Snap Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
WSH 2·MTL 4
3rd·14:27
Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin
·
WSH 2·MTL 4
3rd·14:23
Lane Hutson shot blocked by Anthony Beauvillier
·
WSH 2·MTL 4

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH +136/MTL -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Washington Capitals, 6–2.

MTL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.7%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
59.5%
P(MTL win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.5%
P(MTL win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
57.6%
P(MTL win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MTL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 108 high confidence

Shots on goal

Alex OvechkinWSH
3.5± 1.4high
Alex TuchWSH
3.3± 1.7high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high

Goals

Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex OvechkinWSH
0.5± 1.1high
Tom WilsonWSH
0.5± 0.7high

Points

Alex OvechkinWSH
1.0± 1.0high
Ilya ProtasWSH
1.0± 1.9low
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Washington CapitalsMontreal Canadiens

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