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FINAL+4BUF
BUF

BUF

35-19-6

62
TB

TB

38-16-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Feb 28FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTB -245

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Tampa Bay Lightning and beat them, 6–2.

BUF +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Josh Norris

Josh Norris

C · #9

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

TB · top performer

TB
Oliver Bjorkstrand

Oliver Bjorkstrand

RW · #22

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
6
2
BUF35-19-6TB38-16-4
BUF

BUF

35-19-6

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
TB

TB

38-16-4

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

28

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 4BUFBUF3@TBTB4
Mar 1BUFBUF6@TBTB2today
Mar 8TBTB7@BUFBUF8
Apr 6TBTB2@BUFBUF4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF+20033%
TBTB-24571%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat TB 6-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF4116
TB0112

Period scoring

BUF won 1 · TB won 0

4
0

1

1
1

2

1
1

3

BUF
TB

Play-by-play · 336 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 6·TB 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 6·TB 2

  3. 3rd·20:00

    Charle-Edouard D'Astous Roughing against Peyton Krebs

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  4. 3rd·19:08

    Tyson Kozak faceoff won against Yanni Gourde

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  5. 3rd·19:08

    Puck in Crowd

    BUF 6·TB 2

  6. 3rd·18:43

    Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov

    BUF 6·TB 2

  7. 3rd·18:24

    Oliver Bjorkstrand Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  8. 3rd·18:13

    Brayden Point faceoff won against Tyson Kozak

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  9. 3rd·18:13

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 6·TB 2

  10. 3rd·18:11

    Nikita Kucherov Slap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  11. 3rd·18:01

    Darren Raddysh Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  12. 3rd·17:53

    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  13. 3rd·17:41

    Brandon Hagel Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  14. 3rd·17:14

    Bowen Byram Wrist Shot saved by Jonas Johansson

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  15. 3rd·17:12

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Brayden Point

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  16. 3rd·17:12

    Michael Kesselring Cross-checking against Dominic James

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  17. 3rd·16:59

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Dominic James

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  18. 3rd·16:59

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 6·TB 2

  19. 3rd·16:57

    Brandon Hagel Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  20. 3rd·16:53

    Giveaway by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    BUF 6·TB 2

  21. 3rd·15:51

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Yanni Gourde

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  22. 3rd·15:51

    Off-side

    BUF 6·TB 2

  23. 3rd·15:16

    Brayden Point faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  24. 3rd·15:16

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 6·TB 2

  25. 3rd·15:15

    Brandon Hagel Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  26. 3rd·15:11

    Emil Lilleberg Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  27. 3rd·15:02

    Dominic James faceoff won against Tyson Kozak

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  28. 3rd·15:02

    Puck in Netting

    BUF 6·TB 2

  29. 3rd·14:57

    Dominic James faceoff won against Tyson Kozak

    ·

    BUF 6·TB 2

  30. 3rd·14:57

    Off-side

    BUF 6·TB 2

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

TB

Home

35

Shots

38

20.0

PCT

0.0

12

PIM

28

31

Faceoffs W

33

14

Blocks

5

16

Giveaways

11

2

Takeaways

6

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +200/TB -245

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992
  • Bowen ByramBUF · D
    BURSTS1691
  • Josh NorrisBUF · C
    SKATE MPH22.989
  • Mattias SamuelssonBUF · D
    DIST MI41.088

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+200

Close price

+200

Open no-vig

31.9%

Close no-vig

31.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR