Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at TB?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4BUF

BUF

35-19-6

38-16-4

NHLSat, Feb 28FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTB -245

BUF · top performer

Josh Norris

C · #9

2Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Brandon Hagel

LW · #38

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	1	1	0	2	0	2	13:39
J. DoanRW · #91	0	1	2	2	1	1	0	16:08
T. KozakC · #48	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	13:04
P. KrebsC · #19	0	1	-1	0	5	0	0	10:59
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	12:26
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	20:21
J. NorrisC · #9	2	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:03
N. OstlundC · #86	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	14:46
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	14:21
T. ThompsonC · #72	1	0	-1	6	0	0	0	16:00
A. TuchRW · #89	1	0	-1	5	1	0	2	18:15
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	12:05

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	1	2	4	0	2	0	22:45
R. DahlinD · #26	1	2	2	2	0	0	2	24:32
M. KesselringD · #8	0	0	-1	0	0	0	4	8:40
Z. MetsaD · #73	1	1	2	3	0	2	0	13:08
O. PowerD · #25	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	19:59
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	-1	1	1	2	2	24:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. LuukkonenG · #1	38	2	36	.947	59:41

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	1	-1	4	2	0	0	16:24
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	-2	1	2	0	2	14:01
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	-1	3	3	0	0	15:03
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	8:17
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	-1	1	5	0	0	15:59
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	0	-1	3	0	0	14	13:02
B. HagelLW · #38	0	0	-1	8	0	1	0	21:05
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:52
D. JamesC · #17	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:06
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	20:11
B. PointC · #21	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	17:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	14:39
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	-2	0	3	0	4	15:50
V. HedmanD · #77	1	1	1	2	1	1	2	16:53
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	-1	3	3	0	2	16:45
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	-3	0	0	0	0	16:16
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	15:46
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	1	1	3	1	0	2	21:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JohanssonG · #31	21	1	20	.952	38:06
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	14	5	9	.643	21:54

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 4

BUF3@

TB4

Mar 1

BUF6@

TB2today

Mar 8

TB7@

BUF8

Apr 6

TB2@

BUF4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUF+20033%

TB-24571%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 34 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat TB 6-2. J. Norris led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BUF	4	1	1	6
TB	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

BUF won 1 · TB won 0

BUF

Play-by-play · 336 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·20:00
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Roughing against Peyton Krebs
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·19:08
Tyson Kozak faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·19:08
Puck in Crowd
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·18:43
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·18:24
Oliver Bjorkstrand Slap Shot Wide Left
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·18:13
Brayden Point faceoff won against Tyson Kozak
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·18:13
Goalie Stopped
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·18:11
Nikita Kucherov Slap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·18:01
Darren Raddysh Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·17:53
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·17:41
Brandon Hagel Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·17:14
Bowen Byram Wrist Shot saved by Jonas Johansson
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·17:12
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·17:12
Michael Kesselring Cross-checking against Dominic James
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·16:59
Josh Norris faceoff won against Dominic James
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·16:59
Goalie Stopped
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·16:57
Brandon Hagel Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·16:53
Giveaway by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·15:51
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·15:51
Off-side
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·15:16
Brayden Point faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·15:16
Goalie Stopped
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·15:15
Brandon Hagel Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·15:11
Emil Lilleberg Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·15:02
Dominic James faceoff won against Tyson Kozak
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·15:02
Puck in Netting
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·14:57
Dominic James faceoff won against Tyson Kozak
·
BUF 6·TB 2
3rd·14:57
Off-side
BUF 6·TB 2

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +200/TB -245

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Tampa Bay Lightning and beat them, 6–2.

BUF +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.2%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
62.2%
P(TB win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.2%
P(TB win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.2%
P(TB win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+200

Close price

+200

Open no-vig

31.9%

Close no-vig

31.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at TB?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Buffalo SabresTampa Bay Lightning

Elsewhere in the NHL