Live · 2
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+1DAL
NSH

NSH

27-24-8

23
DAL

DAL

36-14-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Feb 28FinalSeriesDAL wins series 3-0VegasDAL -148

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Nashville Predators, 3–2 in overtime.

NSH +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NSH · top performer

NSH
Luke Evangelista

Luke Evangelista

RW · #77

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

DAL
Wyatt Johnston

Wyatt Johnston

C · #53

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
2
3
NSH27-24-8DAL36-14-9
NSH

NSH

27-24-8

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DAL

DAL

36-14-9

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

PIM

11

Season series

DAL wins series 3-0

Oct 26DALDAL3@NSHNSH2
Nov 8DALDAL5@NSHNSH4
Mar 1NSHNSH2@DALDAL3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSHNSH+12445%
DALDAL-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat NSH 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
NSH20002
DAL01113

Period scoring

NSH won 1 · DAL won 3

2
0

1

0
1

2

0
1

3

0
1

OT

NSH
DAL

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·1:47

    Game End

    NSH 2·DAL 3

  2. OT·1:47

    End of OT

    NSH 2·DAL 3

  3. OT·1:47

    Jason Robertson Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (41), Wyatt Johnston (31)

    · ·

    NSH 2·DAL 3

  4. OT·1:43

    Wyatt Johnston Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  5. OT·1:00

    Brady Skjei Snap Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  6. OT·0:34

    Ryan O'Reilly Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  7. OT·0:23

    Thomas Harley shot blocked by Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  8. OT·0:00

    Matt Duchene faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  9. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  10. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  11. 3rd·19:39

    Nick Perbix shot blocked by Jason Robertson

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  12. 3rd·19:34

    Filip Forsberg Poke saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  13. 3rd·19:33

    Takeaway by Filip Forsberg

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  14. 3rd·19:27

    Cole Smith shot blocked by Esa Lindell

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  15. 3rd·18:49

    Mavrik Bourque faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  16. 3rd·18:49

    Icing

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  17. 3rd·18:09

    Giveaway by Matt Duchene

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  18. 3rd·18:05

    Jamie Benn Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  19. 3rd·18:00

    Thomas Harley shot blocked by Michael McCarron

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  20. 3rd·17:57

    Matt Duchene faceoff won against Michael McCarron

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  21. 3rd·17:57

    Goalie Stopped

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  22. 3rd·17:55

    Arttu Hyry Snap Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  23. 3rd·17:42

    Luke Evangelista shot blocked by Oskar Bäck

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  24. 3rd·17:23

    Nick Blankenburg shot blocked by Adam Erne

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  25. 3rd·17:21

    Lian Bichsel hit Michael Bunting

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  26. 3rd·17:17

    Lian Bichsel hit Michael Bunting

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  27. 3rd·17:03

    Brady Skjei Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  28. 3rd·16:31

    Jason Robertson shot blocked by Roman Josi

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  29. 3rd·16:17

    Nicolas Hague hit Mavrik Bourque

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

  30. 3rd·16:12

    Nils Lundkvist shot blocked by Michael McCarron

    ·

    NSH 2·DAL 2

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

27

Shots

25

33.3

PCT

33.3

11

PIM

11

32

Faceoffs W

23

16

Blocks

13

14

Giveaways

14

5

Takeaways

2

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 6.5·NSH +124/DAL -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497
  • Filip ForsbergNSH · LW
    DIST MI246.195
  • Nick BlankenburgCOL · D
    SKATE MPH22.591
  • Roman JosiNSH · D
    DIST MI245.490
  • Adam WilsbyNSH · D
    BURSTS6889

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DAL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR