Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DAL

NSH

27-24-8

DAL

36-14-9

NHLSat, Feb 28FinalSeriesDAL wins series 3-0VegasDAL -148

NSH · top performer

Steven Stamkos

C · #91

1Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Wyatt Johnston

C · #53

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BuntingLW · #58	1	0	-1	2	0	0	0	13:52
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	17:20
F. ForsbergLW · #9	0	0	-1	4	2	0	2	18:50
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	0	-2	2	1	1	0	17:26
T. JostC · #17	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	9:08
Z. L'HeureuxLW · #68	0	0	0	0	4	0	5	9:11
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:17
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	15:59
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	0	1	1	0	2	2	22:02
C. SmithRW · #36	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	14:09
S. StamkosC · #91	1	0	0	4	3	1	0	20:26
M. WoodRW · #71	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	11:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BlankenburgD · #37	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	18:05
N. HagueD · #41	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	20:01
R. JosiD · #59	0	0	0	3	1	1	2	29:09
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	19:23
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	-2	1	3	2	0	23:57
A. WilsbyD · #83	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	5:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SarosG · #74	25	3	22	.880	61:39

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	9:57
N. BastianRW · #11	1	0	1	3	4	0	0	8:33
J. BennLW · #14	0	1	-1	1	2	0	0	15:41
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:41
M. BourqueC · #22	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	21:45
M. DucheneC · #95	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	19:23
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	8:12
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	1	0	1	0	5	12:30
A. HyryRW · #25	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:37
W. JohnstonC · #53	1	1	1	5	0	1	0	21:44
J. RobertsonLW · #21	1	1	1	2	0	1	0	23:05
S. SteelC · #18	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	18:43

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	15:33
T. HarleyD · #55	0	1	0	2	1	2	4	23:22
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	25:36
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	24:24
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:26
I. LyubushkinD · #46	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	14:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	27	2	25	.926	61:37

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DAL wins series 3-0

Oct 26

DAL3@

NSH2

Nov 8

DAL5@

NSH4

Mar 1

NSH2@

DAL3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSH+12445%

DAL-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 37 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat NSH 3-2. W. Johnston led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
NSH	2	0	0	0	2
DAL	0	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

NSH won 1 · DAL won 3

NSH

DAL

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:47
Game End
NSH 2·DAL 3
OT·1:47
End of OT
NSH 2·DAL 3
OT·1:47
Jason Robertson Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (41), Wyatt Johnston (31)
· ·
NSH 2·DAL 3
OT·1:43
Wyatt Johnston Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
OT·1:00
Brady Skjei Snap Shot Hit Left Post
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
OT·0:34
Ryan O'Reilly Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
OT·0:23
Thomas Harley shot blocked by Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
OT·0:00
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·19:39
Nick Perbix shot blocked by Jason Robertson
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·19:34
Filip Forsberg Poke saved by Jake Oettinger
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·19:33
Takeaway by Filip Forsberg
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·19:27
Cole Smith shot blocked by Esa Lindell
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·18:49
Mavrik Bourque faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·18:49
Icing
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·18:09
Giveaway by Matt Duchene
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·18:05
Jamie Benn Snap Shot Wide Right
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·18:00
Thomas Harley shot blocked by Michael McCarron
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·17:57
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·17:57
Goalie Stopped
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·17:55
Arttu Hyry Snap Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·17:42
Luke Evangelista shot blocked by Oskar Bäck
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·17:23
Nick Blankenburg shot blocked by Adam Erne
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·17:21
Lian Bichsel hit Michael Bunting
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·17:17
Lian Bichsel hit Michael Bunting
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·17:03
Brady Skjei Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·16:31
Jason Robertson shot blocked by Roman Josi
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·16:17
Nicolas Hague hit Mavrik Bourque
·
NSH 2·DAL 2
3rd·16:12
Nils Lundkvist shot blocked by Michael McCarron
·
NSH 2·DAL 2

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 6.5·NSH +124/DAL -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Nashville Predators, 3–2 in overtime.

NSH +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.8%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
64.8%
P(DAL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.8%
P(DAL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.8%
P(DAL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Nashville PredatorsDallas Stars

Elsewhere in the NHL