NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+19NO

UTAH

21-59

137156

26-54

NBATue, Apr 7FinalSeriesNO wins series 3-0VegasNO -6.5

UTAH · top performer

Kennedy Chandler

G · #0

29.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NO · top performer

Jeremiah Fears

G · #0

33.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowUTAH ↔ NO

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 31.3

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. FilipowskiF · #22	18	9	3-9	1-4	2-2	-12	6	5
C. WilliamsF · #5	34	19	8-17	0-5	3-4	-20	4	5
B. SensabaughF · #28	26	18	6-17	2-8	4-4	-34	3	4
O. TshiebweC · #34	21	12	6-10	—	—	-5	7	0
B. MbengG · #21	48	26	12-18	1-4	1-2	-19	3	3
Bench
B. HinsonF · #2	11	10	3-7	2-5	2-2	+14	1	3
J. KoncharG · #55	38	12	4-8	2-3	2-2	0	10	10
K. ChandlerG · #0	43	31	11-18	2-3	7-8	-19	7	8
Team		137	53-104	10-32	21-24		41	38
DNP: K. Love, S. Mykhailiuk, E. Harkless, I. Collier

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LooneyF · #55	29	7	2-4	1-2	2-2	+30	12	6
D. QueenC · #22	37	17	6-9	—	5-6	+17	12	7
J. PooleG · #3	32	34	12-23	7-16	3-4	+18	2	4
M. PeavyG · #14	36	20	9-13	2-3	—	+21	4	2
J. FearsG · #0	38	40	17-29	1-7	5-5	+30	5	6
Bench
J. OduroC · #13	26	9	4-7	—	1-2	-1	5	1
H. DickinsonC · #4	8	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	-8	0	0
T. AlexanderG · #23	11	2	0-3	—	2-2	-12	2	2
J. HawkinsG · #24	23	25	11-16	3-5	—	0	6	4
Team		156	61-106	14-34	20-23		48	32
DNP: H. Jones, Z. Williamson, D. Jordan, S. Bey

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

Home

53-104

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

61-106

FG %

10-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-34

21-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NO wins series 3-0

Feb 27

NO129@

UTAH118

Mar 1

NO115@

UTAH105

Apr 8

UTAH137@

NO156today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NO -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

242.5

High-scoring · +16.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH+20033%

NO-24571%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NO -6.5↗SpreadBet NO -6.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

242.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NO beat UTAH 156-137. J. Fears led the way with 40 points and 6 assists. NO outscored the other side 50-27 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NO vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 23 REB · 17 AST

GS 57

Bench(3)

53 PTS · 18 REB · 21 AST

GS 60

NOstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

118 PTS · 35 REB · 25 AST

GS 106

Bench(4)

38 PTS · 13 REB · 7 AST

GS 35

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NO2nd Quarter · 2:38 · 57-54

+7pp→ 58% WP

Jeremiah Fears · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Derik Queen assists)

UTAH2nd Quarter · 41.2 · 67-61

+7pp→ 50% WP

Bez Mbeng · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kennedy Chandler assists)

NO2nd Quarter · 31.3 · 67-61

+7pp→ 47% WP

John Konchar · blocks Derik Queen 's 1-foot driving layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	34	35	27	41	137
NO	24	37	50	45	156

Period scoring

UTAH won 1 · NO won 3

Filipowski 9

Fears 8

Chandler 8

Fears 12

Williams 9

Poole 22

Mbeng 12

Hawkins 15

UTAH

Shooting comparison

UTAH

51%

53-104

58%

61-106

31%

10-32

3PT

41%

14-34

88%

21-24

87%

20-23

Play-by-play · 485 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 137·NO 156
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 137·NO 156
Q4·5.5
shot clock turnover
UTAH 137·NO 156
Q4·27.7
Kennedy Chandler makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 137·NO 156
Q4·27.7
Kennedy Chandler makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 136·NO 156
Q4·27.7
Trey Alexander shooting foul
UTAH 135·NO 156
Q4·31.7
Trey Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 135·NO 156
Q4·31.7
Trey Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 135·NO 155
Q4·31.7
Bez Mbeng personal foul
UTAH 135·NO 154
Q4·35.7
Blake Hinson makes 23-foot three pointer
UTAH 135·NO 154
Q4·37.9
Micah Peavy bad pass turnover (Blake Hinson steals)
·
UTAH 132·NO 154
Q4·40.6
Blake Hinson makes driving layup (John Konchar assists)
·
UTAH 132·NO 154
Q4·51.4
Jordan Hawkins makes 2-foot two point shot
·
UTAH 130·NO 154
Q4·1:01
Oscar Tshiebwe personal foul
UTAH 130·NO 152
Q4·1:06
Bez Mbeng makes two point shot
UTAH 130·NO 152
Q4·1:09
Derik Queen bad pass turnover (Bez Mbeng steals)
·
UTAH 128·NO 152
Q4·1:20
Bez Mbeng makes driving layup (Kennedy Chandler assists)
·
UTAH 128·NO 152
Q4·1:25
Kennedy Chandler offensive rebound
UTAH 126·NO 152
Q4·1:29
Blake Hinson misses 25-foot three point jumper
UTAH 126·NO 152
Q4·1:41
Micah Peavy enters the game for Jordan Poole
· ·
UTAH 126·NO 152
Q4·1:41
Josh Oduro enters the game for Jeremiah Fears
·
UTAH 126·NO 152
Q4·1:41
Jazz defensive team rebound
UTAH 126·NO 152
Q4·1:43
Jordan Poole misses 27-foot three point jumper
·
UTAH 126·NO 152
Q4·1:52
Bez Mbeng makes driving layup (Blake Hinson assists)
·
UTAH 126·NO 152
Q4·1:56
Jordan Hawkins makes running layup (Trey Alexander assists)
· ·
UTAH 124·NO 152
Q4·2:00
Oscar Tshiebwe bad pass turnover (Trey Alexander steals)
·
UTAH 124·NO 150
Q4·2:10
Bez Mbeng defensive rebound
UTAH 124·NO 150
Q4·2:11
Jordan Poole misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
UTAH 124·NO 150
Q4·2:22
Oscar Tshiebwe makes 9-foot jumper (Blake Hinson assists)
·
UTAH 124·NO 150
Q4·2:36
Jeremiah Fears makes driving layup
UTAH 122·NO 150

Betting line

NO -6.5·O/U 242.5·UTAH +200/NO -245

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew Orleans Pelicans held off Utah Jazz, 156–137.

NO -6.5 cashed (won by 19). Total cleared the 242.5 OVER by 50.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Bez MbengUTAH · G
DEFL3.998
Blake HinsonUTAH · F
TS%68.497
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH · G
TOUCHES72.194
John KoncharUTAH · G
DEFL2.891
Derik QueenNO · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NO vs UTAH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
20.7± 4.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH
8.1± 2.6high

Assists

Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Jusuf NurkicUTAH
5.5± 4.5high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high
Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Utah JazzNew Orleans Pelicans

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR