NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14HOU

HOU

50-29

119105

PHX

43-36

NBATue, Apr 7FinalSeriesHOU wins series 4-0VegasHOU -1.5

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets went into Phoenix Suns and beat them, 119–105.

HOU -1.5 cashed (won by 14). Total cleared the 221.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

Amen Thompson

G · #1

24.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

25.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	36	24	8-20	5-9	3-3	-7	4	3
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	39	20	6-18	5-13	3-3	+11	6	1
A. SengunC · #28	28	12	5-15	0-1	2-2	+4	14	6
A. ThompsonG · #1	36	22	10-16	0-1	2-2	+2	11	8
R. SheppardG · #15	21	12	5-9	2-6	—	0	5	1
Bench
J. TateF · #8	7	2	1-1	—	—	+11	2	3
T. EasonF · #17	31	12	5-7	0-2	2-2	+29	7	2
C. CapelaC · #30	10	2	1-5	—	—	-2	3	0
A. HolidayG · #0	21	12	4-6	2-4	2-2	+27	0	0
J. OkogieG · #20	12	1	0-3	0-2	1-2	-5	3	2
Team		119	45-100	14-38	15-16		55	26
DNP: J. Green, D. Finney-Smith, I. Crawford, J. Davison, T. Newton

DNP: J. Green, D. Finney-Smith, I. Crawford, J. Davison, T. Newton

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BrooksF · #3	33	10	3-12	1-7	3-4	+4	3	1
M. WilliamsC · #15	28	19	7-9	—	5-6	+10	8	0
D. BookerG · #1	39	31	7-16	2-6	15-16	+2	4	8
J. GoodwinG · #23	25	11	4-7	3-6	—	+6	4	2
J. GreenG · #4	32	15	5-14	0-4	5-7	-5	3	1
Bench
R. O'NealeF · #00	17	3	1-4	1-4	—	-21	2	0
O. IghodaroF · #11	19	8	4-6	—	—	-22	5	1
R. DunnF · #0	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
R. FlemingF · #20	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
K. MaluachC · #10	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
G. AllenG · #8	26	8	1-4	0-2	6-6	-18	4	2
C. GillespieG · #12	17	0	0-2	0-2	—	-16	1	0
J. BouyeaG · #17	1	0	0-1	—	—	-2	0	0
K. BreaG · #14	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
Team		105	32-75	7-31	34-39		34	15
DNP: A. Coffey

DNP: A. Coffey

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

HOU wins series 4-0

Nov 25

HOU114@

PHX92

Dec 6

PHX98@

HOU117

Jan 6

PHX97@

HOU100

Apr 8

HOU119@

PHX105today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU-11854%

PHX-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 22pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:00

HOU

A. Thompson

Game leader · 36 minDouble-double

22 PTS · 11 REB · 8 AST

PHX

D. Booker

Game leader · 39 min30-point game

31 PTS · 4 REB · 8 AST

How it ended

HOU beat PHX 119-105. A. Thompson led with 22 PTS, 11 REB, 8 AST. HOU outscored the other side 38-21 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 40 REB · 19 AST

GS 66

Bench(5)

29 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST

GS 26

PHXstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 22 REB · 12 AST

GS 65

Bench(9)

19 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX2nd Quarter · 3:00 · 45-55

+22pp→ 79% WP

Amen Thompson · lost ball turnover

PHX3rd Quarter · 6:38 · 65-70

+13pp→ 65% WP

Jalen Green · makes driving layup (Jordan Goodwin assists)

PHX3rd Quarter · 0.2 · 81-84

+11pp→ 64% WP

Alperen Sengun · misses 7-foot two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	21	33	27	38	119
PHX	37	20	27	21	105

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · PHX won 1

Sheppard 5

Booker 11

Durant 11

Booker 10

Durant 9

Green 18

Thompson 12

Booker 6

HOU

PHX

Shooting comparison

HOU

PHX

45%

45-100

43%

32-75

37%

14-38

3PT

23%

7-31

94%

15-16

87%

34-39

Play-by-play · 526 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 119·PHX 105
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 119·PHX 105
Q4·2.4
shot clock turnover
HOU 119·PHX 105
Q4·26.4
Amen Thompson makes driving layup
HOU 119·PHX 105
Q4·46.7
Tari Eason defensive rebound
HOU 117·PHX 105
Q4·48.6
Jamaree Bouyea misses driving layup
HOU 117·PHX 105
Q4·1:04
Josh Okogie enters the game for Kevin Durant
·
HOU 117·PHX 105
Q4·1:04
Rasheer Fleming enters the game for Jordan Goodwin
·
HOU 117·PHX 105
Q4·1:04
Koby Brea enters the game for Mark Williams
·
HOU 117·PHX 105
Q4·1:04
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Jalen Green
· ·
HOU 117·PHX 105
Q4·1:04
Jamaree Bouyea enters the game for Dillon Brooks
·
HOU 117·PHX 105
Q4·1:04
Khaman Maluach enters the game for Devin Booker
·
HOU 117·PHX 105
Q4·1:04
Suns Full timeout
HOU 117·PHX 105
Q4·1:04
Amen Thompson makes 2-foot layup (Kevin Durant assists)
·
HOU 117·PHX 105
Q4·1:21
Devin Booker makes driving layup
HOU 115·PHX 105
Q4·1:32
Jabari Smith Jr. makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Amen Thompson assists)
·
HOU 115·PHX 103
−0.5pp
Q4·1:54
Mark Williams makes running layup (Devin Booker assists)
·
HOU 113·PHX 103
Q4·1:58
Devin Booker defensive rebound
HOU 113·PHX 101
Q4·2:02
Amen Thompson misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
HOU 113·PHX 101
Q4·2:21
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
HOU 113·PHX 101
Q4·2:24
Devin Booker misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
HOU 113·PHX 101
Q4·2:36
Alperen Sengun out of bounds lost ball turnover
HOU 113·PHX 101
Q4·2:36
Tari Eason enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
HOU 113·PHX 101
Q4·2:36
(02:36) [Suns] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Suns] retain their timeout
HOU 113·PHX 101
Q4·2:36
Suns Coach's Challenge
HOU 113·PHX 101
Q4·2:40
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
HOU 113·PHX 101
Q4·2:42
Jabari Smith Jr. misses 30-foot three point jumper
HOU 113·PHX 101
Q4·2:47
Mark Williams bad pass turnover (Aaron Holiday steals)
·
HOU 113·PHX 101
Q4·2:48
Amen Thompson bad pass turnover (Jordan Goodwin steals)
·
HOU 113·PHX 101
Q4·3:05
Jalen Green makes free throw 1 of 1
·
HOU 113·PHX 101

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

45-100

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-75

FG %

14-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-31

15-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

34-39

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 221.5·HOU -118/PHX -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.297
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU
7.4± 2.5high

Assists

Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high
Mark WilliamsPHX
1.0± 1.3high

Steals

Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high
Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

PHX

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.7%

47.4%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

114.1

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

25.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR