NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+36OKC

OKC

63-16

12387

LAL

50-29

NBATue, Apr 7FinalSeriesOKC wins series 4-0VegasOKC -17.5

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

23.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Luke Kennard

G · #10

14.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:32

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	10	0	0-1	—	—	-3	5	2
C. HolmgrenC · #7	22	15	6-10	1-3	2-3	+30	10	0
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	28	25	10-15	2-2	3-3	+32	1	8
L. DortG · #5	23	8	3-6	2-5	—	+28	1	2
A. MitchellG · #25	21	9	3-9	1-3	2-2	+7	3	3
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	14	0	—	—	—	+14	5	3
B. BarnhizerF · #23	6	2	1-2	—	—	-1	4	0
B. CarlsonC · #15	7	8	3-4	1-2	1-2	-1	2	1
A. CarusoG · #9	10	6	2-3	2-3	—	0	1	2
K. WilliamsG · #34	12	2	1-7	0-3	—	+5	5	1
I. JoeG · #11	18	18	6-9	6-9	—	+31	2	0
A. WigginsG · #21	20	10	4-7	2-4	—	+4	2	0
C. WallaceG · #22	23	5	1-4	1-2	2-2	+27	2	3
J. McCainG · #3	16	15	5-8	3-4	2-2	+7	2	1
N. TopicG · #44	10	0	0-4	0-1	—	0	1	3
Team		123	45-89	21-41	12-14		46	29

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. HachimuraF · #28	26	15	7-10	1-1	0-3	-24	5	1
D. TimmeF · #17	27	11	4-9	2-4	1-2	-26	3	2
J. LaRaviaF · #12	20	2	1-7	0-4	0-2	-19	7	1
D. AytonC · #5	23	3	1-4	—	1-2	-26	3	0
L. KennardG · #10	23	10	4-7	0-2	2-3	-23	2	9
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	13	2	1-2	0-1	—	-5	1	1
J. VanderbiltF · #2	5	3	1-1	1-1	0-3	-4	2	1
D. KnechtF · #4	19	5	2-6	1-2	—	-3	4	0
A. ThieroF · #1	21	10	2-4	1-2	5-10	-15	4	2
N. Smith Jr.G · #20	12	11	4-6	1-2	2-2	-5	0	2
K. BufkinG · #18	18	9	2-6	2-2	3-4	0	3	4
B. JamesG · #9	23	4	2-9	0-5	—	-25	2	2
C. ManonG · #30	12	2	1-2	—	—	-5	2	1
Team		87	32-73	9-26	14-31		38	26
DNP: J. Hayes

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

45-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-73

FG %

21-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-26

12-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-31

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

OKC wins series 4-0

May 6

LAL90@

OKC108

May 8

LAL107@

OKC125

May 10

OKC131@

LAL108

May 12

OKC115@

LAL110

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -17.5

Between 10 and —

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

OKC-210095%

LAL+11008%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -17.5↗SpreadBet OKC -17.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

17.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat LAL 123-87. S. Gilgeous-Alexander paced them with 25 PTS, 1 REB, 8 AST. OKC outscored the other side 28-15 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 46% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 20 REB · 15 AST

GS 56

Bench(10)

66 PTS · 26 REB · 14 AST

GS 56

LALstarters 47% of pts

Starters(5)

41 PTS · 20 REB · 13 AST

GS 29

Bench(8)

46 PTS · 18 REB · 13 AST

GS 33

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

OKC2nd Quarter · 9:32 · 36-33

+6pp→ 83% WP

Dalton Knecht · bad pass turnover (Isaiah Hartenstein steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	34	31	28	30	123
LAL	27	20	15	25	87

Period scoring

OKC won 4 · LAL won 0

Gilgeous-Alexander 11

Timme 10

McCain 7

Timme 10

Gilgeous-Alexander 10

Dort 7

Wiggins 10

Bufkin 13

OKC

LAL

Shooting comparison

OKC

LAL

51%

45-89

44%

32-73

51%

21-41

3PT

35%

9-26

86%

12-14

45%

14-31

Play-by-play · 448 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 123·LAL 87
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 123·LAL 87
Q4·3.2
Nick Smith Jr. makes 13-foot fade away jump shot (Kobe Bufkin assists)
·
OKC 123·LAL 87
Q4·10.7
Kobe Bufkin defensive rebound
OKC 123·LAL 85
Q4·14.6
Aaron Wiggins misses 27-foot three point jumper
OKC 123·LAL 85
Q4·29.9
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
OKC 123·LAL 85
Q4·34.2
Dalton Knecht misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
OKC 123·LAL 85
Q4·53.8
Brooks Barnhizer makes tip shot
OKC 123·LAL 85
Q4·53.8
Brooks Barnhizer offensive rebound
OKC 121·LAL 85
Q4·54.4
Kenrich Williams misses running layup
·
OKC 121·LAL 85
Q4·57.6
Dalton Knecht bad pass turnover (Aaron Wiggins steals)
·
OKC 121·LAL 85
Q4·1:04
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
OKC 121·LAL 85
Q4·1:06
Kenrich Williams misses layup
·
OKC 121·LAL 85
Q4·1:08
Thunder offensive team rebound
OKC 121·LAL 85
Q4·1:10
Kenrich Williams misses 29-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
OKC 121·LAL 85
Q4·1:23
Dalton Knecht makes 30-foot three point jumper (Nick Smith Jr. assists)
·
OKC 121·LAL 85
Q4·1:31
Lakers defensive team rebound
OKC 121·LAL 82
Q4·1:32
Aaron Wiggins misses 11-foot two point shot
OKC 121·LAL 82
Q4·1:37
Dalton Knecht loose ball foul
OKC 121·LAL 82
Q4·1:37
Thunder offensive team rebound
OKC 121·LAL 82
Q4·1:37
Nikola Topic misses driving layup
OKC 121·LAL 82
Q4·1:54
Nick Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 121·LAL 82
Q4·1:54
Nick Smith Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 121·LAL 81
Q4·1:54
Aaron Wiggins shooting foul
OKC 121·LAL 80
Q4·2:04
Branden Carlson makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 121·LAL 80
Q4·2:04
Thunder offensive team rebound
OKC 120·LAL 80
Q4·2:04
Branden Carlson misses free throw 1 of 2
OKC 120·LAL 80
Q4·2:04
Kobe Bufkin shooting foul
OKC 120·LAL 80
Q4·2:15
Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound
OKC 120·LAL 80
Q4·2:19
Kobe Bufkin misses 10-foot two point shot
OKC 120·LAL 80

Betting line

OKC -17.5·O/U 221.5·OKC -2100/LAL +1100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder went into Los Angeles Lakers and beat them, 123–87. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

OKC -17.5 cashed (won by 36). Total stayed UNDER 221.5 by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort

Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Ajay MitchellOKC · G
DRIVES14.797
Isaiah HartensteinOKC · C
DEFL2.789
Branden CarlsonPOR · C
CONT5.177

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAL vs OKC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high

Rebounds

Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
0.8± 0.8high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Matisse ThybulleLAL
1.7± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

LAL

55.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

48.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

118.5

PPG

◀

114.9

114.8

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

25.7

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Team pages

Oklahoma City ThunderLos Angeles Lakers

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR