OKC
63-16
LAL
50-29
Recap · NBA
klahoma City Thunder went into Los Angeles Lakers and beat them, 123–87. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
OKC -17.5 cashed (won by 36). Total stayed UNDER 221.5 by 11.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
OKC · top performer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
G · #2
25
Pts
1
Reb
8
Ast
LAL · top performer
Luke Kennard
G · #10
10
Pts
2
Reb
9
Ast
NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 10 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -3 | 5 | 2 | |
| 22 | 15 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 2-3 | +30 | 10 | 0 | |
| 28 | 25 | 10-15 | 2-2 | 3-3 | +32 | 1 | 8 | |
| 23 | 8 | 3-6 | 2-5 | — | +28 | 1 | 2 | |
| 21 | 9 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | +7 | 3 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 14 | 0 | — | — | — | +14 | 5 | 3 | |
| 6 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | -1 | 4 | 0 | |
| 7 | 8 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | -1 | 2 | 1 | |
| 10 | 6 | 2-3 | 2-3 | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-3 | — | +5 | 5 | 1 | |
| 18 | 18 | 6-9 | 6-9 | — | +31 | 2 | 0 | |
| 20 | 10 | 4-7 | 2-4 | — | +4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 23 | 5 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | +27 | 2 | 3 | |
| 16 | 15 | 5-8 | 3-4 | 2-2 | +7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Team | 123 | 45-89 | 21-41 | 12-14 | 46 | 29 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 15 | 7-10 | 1-1 | 0-3 | -24 | 5 | 1 | |
| 27 | 11 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 1-2 | -26 | 3 | 2 | |
| 20 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 0-2 | -19 | 7 | 1 | |
| 23 | 3 | 1-4 | — | 1-2 | -26 | 3 | 0 | |
| 23 | 10 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 2-3 | -23 | 2 | 9 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 13 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | -5 | 1 | 1 | |
| 5 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-3 | -4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 19 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-2 | — | -3 | 4 | 0 | |
| 21 | 10 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 5-10 | -15 | 4 | 2 | |
| 12 | 11 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | -5 | 0 | 2 | |
| 18 | 9 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | |
| 23 | 4 | 2-9 | 0-5 | — | -25 | 2 | 2 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | -5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 87 | 32-73 | 9-26 | 14-31 | 38 | 26 | ||
| DNP: J. Hayes | ||||||||
DNP: J. Hayes
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
44
29
Ast
26
Playoff series
OKC wins series 4-0
LAL90@OKC108LAL107@OKC125OKC131@LAL108OKC115@LAL110Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -17.5
Between 10 and —
Total
221.5
Standard · -4.5 vs avg
Moneyline
OKC-210095%LAL+11008%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
17.5
0.0 since open
Total
221.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:32
OKCS. Gilgeous-Alexander
GGame leader · 28 min
25 PTS · 1 REB · 8 AST
LALL. Kennard
GGame leader · 23 min
10 PTS · 2 REB · 9 AST
How it ended
OKC beat LAL 123-87. S. Gilgeous-Alexander paced them with 25 PTS, 1 REB, 8 AST. OKC outscored the other side 28-15 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LAL vs OKC
Starters vs bench
production by unitOKCstarters 46% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 20 REB · 15 AST
GS 56
Bench(10)
66 PTS · 26 REB · 14 AST
GS 56
LALstarters 47% of ptsStarters(5)
41 PTS · 20 REB · 13 AST
GS 29
Bench(8)
46 PTS · 18 REB · 13 AST
GS 33
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDalton Knecht · bad pass turnover (Isaiah Hartenstein steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 34 | 31 | 28 | 30 | 123 |
| LAL | 27 | 20 | 15 | 25 | 87 |
Period scoring
OKC won 4 · LAL won 0
Q1
Gilgeous-Alexander 11
Timme 10
Q2
McCain 7
Timme 10
Q3
Gilgeous-Alexander 10
Dort 7
Q4
Wiggins 10
Bufkin 13
Shooting comparison
51%
45-89
FG
44%
32-73
51%
21-41
3PT
35%
9-26
86%
12-14
FT
45%
14-31
Play-by-play · 448 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 123·LAL 87
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 123·LAL 87
- Q4·3.2
Nick Smith Jr. makes 13-foot fade away jump shot (Kobe Bufkin assists)
·
OKC 123·LAL 87
- Q4·10.7
Kobe Bufkin defensive rebound
OKC 123·LAL 85
- Q4·14.6
Aaron Wiggins misses 27-foot three point jumper
OKC 123·LAL 85
- Q4·29.9
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
OKC 123·LAL 85
- Q4·34.2
Dalton Knecht misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
OKC 123·LAL 85
- Q4·53.8
Brooks Barnhizer makes tip shot
OKC 123·LAL 85
- Q4·53.8
Brooks Barnhizer offensive rebound
OKC 121·LAL 85
- Q4·54.4
Kenrich Williams misses running layup
·
OKC 121·LAL 85
- Q4·57.6
Dalton Knecht bad pass turnover (Aaron Wiggins steals)
·
OKC 121·LAL 85
- Q4·1:04
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
OKC 121·LAL 85
- Q4·1:06
Kenrich Williams misses layup
·
OKC 121·LAL 85
- Q4·1:08
Thunder offensive team rebound
OKC 121·LAL 85
- Q4·1:10
Kenrich Williams misses 29-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
OKC 121·LAL 85
- Q4·1:23
Dalton Knecht makes 30-foot three point jumper (Nick Smith Jr. assists)
·
OKC 121·LAL 85
- Q4·1:31
Lakers defensive team rebound
OKC 121·LAL 82
- Q4·1:32
Aaron Wiggins misses 11-foot two point shot
OKC 121·LAL 82
- Q4·1:37
Dalton Knecht loose ball foul
OKC 121·LAL 82
- Q4·1:37
Thunder offensive team rebound
OKC 121·LAL 82
- Q4·1:37
Nikola Topic misses driving layup
OKC 121·LAL 82
- Q4·1:54
Nick Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 121·LAL 82
- Q4·1:54
Nick Smith Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 121·LAL 81
- Q4·1:54
Aaron Wiggins shooting foul
OKC 121·LAL 80
- Q4·2:04
Branden Carlson makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 121·LAL 80
- Q4·2:04
Thunder offensive team rebound
OKC 120·LAL 80
- Q4·2:04
Branden Carlson misses free throw 1 of 2
OKC 120·LAL 80
- Q4·2:04
Kobe Bufkin shooting foul
OKC 120·LAL 80
- Q4·2:15
Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound
OKC 120·LAL 80
- Q4·2:19
Kobe Bufkin misses 10-foot two point shot
OKC 120·LAL 80
Team stats
OKC
Away
Stat
LAL
Home
45-89
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
32-73
51
FG %
44
21-41
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-26
12-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
14-31
29
Assists
26
12
Turnovers
17
Betting line
OKC -17.5·O/U 221.5·OKC -2100/LAL +1100
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 13 players in cohort- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · GUSG%32.899
Chet HolmgrenOKC · CCONT10.799
Deandre AytonLAL · CCONT10.399- Luke KennardLAL · GTS%68.998
Ajay MitchellOKC · GDRIVES14.796
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · OKC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAL vs OKC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
165
projections · 160 high confidence
Points
- Luka DoncicLAL35.3± 12.2high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- LeBron JamesLAL22.2± 5.8high
Rebounds
- Deandre AytonLAL9.1± 4.7high
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
Assists
- Luka DoncicLAL7.6± 3.5high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- LeBron JamesLAL7.2± 2.6high
Blocks
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Deandre AytonLAL0.9± 0.6high
- Branden CarlsonOKC0.9± 1.6high
Steals
- Marcus SmartLAL2.1± 1.8high
- Luka DoncicLAL2.0± 1.4high
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
OKC
league avg
LAL
55.9%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶57.0%
48.2%
FG%
47.0
▶49.9%
118.5
PPG
114.9
114.8
25.8
Assists / G
25.0
25.7
11.9
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.1