NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6BKN

MIL

31-48

9096

BKN

20-59

NBATue, Apr 7FinalSeriesBKN leads series 2-1VegasMIL -1.5

Recap · NBA

rooklyn Nets held off Milwaukee Bucks, 96–90.

BKN +1.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 218.5 by 32.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

AJ Green

G · #20

16.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BKN · top performer

E.J. Liddell

F · #9

20.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. PrinceF · #12	37	16	6-15	4-12	—	+1	11	4
P. NanceF · #35	26	8	3-8	1-4	1-2	-13	2	6
O. DiengF · #21	32	10	5-12	0-5	—	-5	7	3
J. SimsC · #00	37	12	6-9	—	—	+7	8	6
A. GreenG · #20	39	20	6-13	6-12	2-2	-4	6	1
Bench
G. HarrisG · #11	21	7	3-9	1-4	—	-11	3	1
C. RyanG · #30	34	14	5-12	3-6	1-2	-5	5	2
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	15	3	1-3	0-2	1-2	0	2	2
Team		90	35-81	15-45	5-8		44	25
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, A. Antetokounmpo, K. Porter Jr.

DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, A. Antetokounmpo, K. Porter Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. ScottF · #13	40	8	3-7	2-3	—	-1	5	2
E.J. LiddellF · #9	21	21	7-9	2-3	5-5	+2	4	1
M. SmithG · #18	37	11	4-5	1-1	2-2	+2	5	4
D. PowellG · #4	40	11	4-16	1-6	2-2	-2	4	1
B. SarafG · #77	36	19	5-13	0-2	9-10	-7	5	2
Bench
J. WilsonF · #22	19	7	2-7	0-2	3-4	+6	1	2
C. JohnsonF · #31	8	5	2-3	1-1	—	+16	2	1
T. EtienneG · #10	29	9	4-13	1-7	—	+1	5	3
N. TraoreG · #88	9	5	2-2	1-1	—	+13	1	2
Team		96	33-75	9-26	21-23		32	18
DNP: Z. Williams, J. Minott, O. Agbaji

DNP: Z. Williams, J. Minott, O. Agbaji

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

BKN leads series 2-1

Nov 30

BKN99@

MIL116

Dec 14

MIL82@

BKN127

Apr 7

MIL90@

BKN96today

Apr 11

BKN108@

MIL125

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL-12055%

BKN+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ BKN

Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 2:28

MIL

A. Green

Game leader · 39 min

20 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST

BKN

E.J. Liddell

Game leader · 21 min

21 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST

How it ended

BKN beat MIL 96-90. E.J. Liddell led with 21 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BKN vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 34 REB · 20 AST

GS 53

Bench(3)

24 PTS · 10 REB · 5 AST

GS 11

BKNstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 23 REB · 10 AST

GS 61

Bench(4)

26 PTS · 9 REB · 8 AST

GS 17

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BKN4th Quarter · 3:11 · 84-88

+15pp→ 78% WP

Tyson Etienne · makes 19-foot jumper (Ben Saraf assists)

MIL4th Quarter · 2:28 · 87-88

+15pp→ 36% WP

Taurean Prince · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ousmane Dieng assists)

BKN4th Quarter · 16.6 · 90-92

+12pp→ 93% WP

Ousmane Dieng · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	29	14	19	28	90
BKN	30	19	21	26	96

Period scoring

MIL won 1 · BKN won 3

Green 9

Liddell 12

Prince 5

Liddell 5

Ryan 6

Powell 6

Green 11

Saraf 8

MIL

BKN

Shooting comparison

MIL

BKN

43%

35-81

44%

33-75

33%

15-45

3PT

35%

9-26

63%

5-8

91%

21-23

Play-by-play · 418 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 90·BKN 96
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 90·BKN 96
Q4·2.0
Ben Saraf defensive rebound
MIL 90·BKN 96
Q4·5.0
Taurean Prince misses 28-foot three point jumper
MIL 90·BKN 96
+2pp
Q4·9.1
Ben Saraf makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 90·BKN 96
−1pp
Q4·9.1
Ben Saraf makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 90·BKN 95
Q4·9.1
Gary Harris enters the game for Cormac Ryan
·
MIL 90·BKN 94
Q4·9.1
Cormac Ryan loose ball foul
MIL 90·BKN 94
+2pp
Q4·9.1
Nets defensive team rebound
MIL 90·BKN 94
+2pp
Q4·10.9
Ousmane Dieng misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIL 90·BKN 94
+6pp
Q4·16.6
Cormac Ryan enters the game for Pete Nance
·
MIL 90·BKN 94
Q4·16.6
Bucks Full timeout
MIL 90·BKN 94
Q4·16.6
Ben Saraf makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 90·BKN 94
−5pp
Q4·16.6
Pete Nance enters the game for Cormac Ryan
·
MIL 90·BKN 93
Q4·16.6
Ben Saraf makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 90·BKN 93
+1pp
Q4·16.6
Ousmane Dieng shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIL 90·BKN 92
+12pp
Q4·33.3
AJ Green makes 28-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
MIL 90·BKN 92
−10pp
Q4·38.3
AJ Green defensive rebound
MIL 87·BKN 92
−0.9pp
Q4·41.1
Tyson Etienne misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIL 87·BKN 92
−3pp
Q4·53.8
Cormac Ryan offensive foul turnover
MIL 87·BKN 92
Q4·53.8
Cormac Ryan offensive foulBIG MOMENT
MIL 87·BKN 92
+6pp
Q4·59.4
Bucks Full timeout
MIL 87·BKN 92
Q4·59.4
Drake Powell makes layup (Tyson Etienne assists)
·
MIL 87·BKN 92
+4pp
Q4·1:04
Tyson Etienne defensive rebound
MIL 87·BKN 90
+2pp
Q4·1:07
Cormac Ryan misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
MIL 87·BKN 90
+7pp
Q4·1:20
Tyson Etienne makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
MIL 87·BKN 90
+10pp
Q4·1:30
Trevon Scott defensive rebound
MIL 87·BKN 88
+3pp
Q4·1:35
Ousmane Dieng misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
MIL 87·BKN 88
+9pp
Q4·1:44
Bucks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIL 87·BKN 88
−9pp
Q4·1:46
Taurean Prince misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIL 87·BKN 88
+8pp

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

BKN

Home

35-81

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-75

FG %

15-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-26

5-8

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-23

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 218.5·MIL -120/BKN +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BKN vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL
25.0± 4.5high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high

Rebounds

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL
9.9± 4.4high
Jericho SimsMIL
7.5± 4.7high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
6.9± 5.2high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL
5.1± 2.6high

Blocks

Myles TurnerMIL
1.8± 1.6high
Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high
Nic ClaxtonBKN
0.9± 0.7high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Ziaire WilliamsBKN
1.7± 1.6high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

BKN

56.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.0%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

44.3%

110.6

PPG

◀

114.9

105.9

25.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

14.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR