MIA
41-38
TOR
44-35
Recap · NBA
oronto Raptors held off Miami Heat, 121–95. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
TOR -2.5 cashed (won by 26). Total stayed UNDER 240.5 by 24.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIA · top performer
Andrew Wiggins
F · #22
24
Pts
5
Reb
1
Ast
TOR · top performer
Scottie Barnes
F · #4
25
Pts
8
Reb
5
Ast
NBA · Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 24 | 8-13 | 4-7 | 4-5 | -24 | 5 | 1 | |
| 37 | 7 | 2-13 | 1-7 | 2-2 | -13 | 9 | 3 | |
| 23 | 9 | 4-11 | 1-5 | — | -25 | 1 | 6 | |
| 30 | 14 | 5-8 | 1-4 | 3-4 | -12 | 5 | 6 | |
| 26 | 7 | 2-9 | 1-4 | 2-2 | -13 | 3 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 3 | 7 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 26 | 8 | 4-12 | 0-4 | — | -12 | 6 | 3 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 17 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-2 | — | -9 | 8 | 2 | |
| 24 | 14 | 4-12 | 2-7 | 4-4 | -19 | 3 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | — | +1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Team | 95 | 33-91 | 12-44 | 17-19 | 44 | 26 | ||
| DNP: S. Fontecchio, D. Smith | ||||||||
DNP: S. Fontecchio, D. Smith
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 29 | 23 | 9-16 | 3-5 | 2-2 | +11 | 6 | 3 | |
| 31 | 16 | 7-16 | 0-3 | 2-3 | +16 | 8 | 2 | |
| 30 | 25 | 10-16 | 2-2 | 3-4 | +7 | 8 | 5 | |
| 26 | 17 | 8-13 | — | 1-3 | +4 | 6 | 3 | |
| 18 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | — | +2 | 4 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 22 | 11 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 1-2 | +23 | 5 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 | — | +1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 20 | 6 | 3-7 | — | — | +17 | 8 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | +1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | +1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 24 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | — | +27 | 1 | 11 | |
| 27 | 9 | 3-8 | 3-8 | — | +18 | 7 | 3 | |
| 3 | 4 | 1-2 | — | 2-2 | +1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 121 | 49-99 | 12-28 | 11-16 | 56 | 34 | ||
| DNP: G. Temple | ||||||||
DNP: G. Temple
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
36
FG %
49
26
Ast
34
Season series
TOR leads series 3-0
TOR106@MIA96TOR112@MIA91MIA95@TOR121todayMIA114@TOR128Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TOR -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
240.5
High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIA+12045%TOR-14259%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
240.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 8:27
MIAA. Wiggins
FGame leader · 33 min
24 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST
TORS. Barnes
FGame leader · 30 min
25 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
TOR beat MIA 121-95. S. Barnes paced them with 25 PTS, 8 REB, 5 AST. TOR outscored the other side 32-24 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
TOR vs MIA
Starters vs bench
production by unitMIAstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
61 PTS · 23 REB · 17 AST
GS 39
Bench(8)
34 PTS · 21 REB · 9 AST
GS 24
TORstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
84 PTS · 32 REB · 17 AST
GS 75
Bench(9)
37 PTS · 24 REB · 17 AST
GS 34
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJamal Shead · makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
Bam Adebayo · misses 23-foot three point jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 27 | 24 | 25 | 19 | 95 |
| TOR | 32 | 32 | 30 | 27 | 121 |
Period scoring
MIA won 0 · TOR won 4
Q1
Mitchell 9
Ingram 8
Q2
Wiggins 6
Barnes 7
Q3
Herro 9
Ingram 8
Q4
Johnson 7
Poeltl 7
Shooting comparison
36%
33-91
FG
49%
49-99
27%
12-44
3PT
43%
12-28
89%
17-19
FT
69%
11-16
Play-by-play · 488 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 95·TOR 121
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 95·TOR 121
- Q4·7.5
Myron Gardner out of bounds lost ball turnover
MIA 95·TOR 121
- Q4·17.2
Gradey Dick makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 95·TOR 121
- Q4·17.2
Gradey Dick makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 95·TOR 120
- Q4·17.2
Myron Gardner personal foul
MIA 95·TOR 119
- Q4·30.8
Vladislav Goldin bad pass turnover (A.J. Lawson steals)
·
MIA 95·TOR 119
- Q4·33.0
Vladislav Goldin offensive rebound
MIA 95·TOR 119
- Q4·35.0
Kasparas Jakucionis misses driving floating jump shot
MIA 95·TOR 119
- Q4·42.7
Gradey Dick makes running dunk (Jamison Battle assists)
·
MIA 95·TOR 119
- Q4·44.8
A.J. Lawson defensive rebound
MIA 95·TOR 117
- Q4·47.8
Myron Gardner misses two point shot
MIA 95·TOR 117
- Q4·52.9
Gradey Dick bad pass turnover (Keshad Johnson steals)
·
MIA 95·TOR 117
- Q4·55.9
Myron Gardner personal foul
MIA 95·TOR 117
- Q4·1:07
Keshad Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 95·TOR 117
- Q4·1:07
Keshad Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 94·TOR 117
- Q4·1:07
Trayce Jackson-Davis shooting foul
MIA 93·TOR 117
- Q4·1:11
Keshad Johnson defensive rebound
MIA 93·TOR 117
- Q4·1:13
Jamison Battle misses 28-foot three point jumper
MIA 93·TOR 117
- Q4·1:19
Gradey Dick offensive rebound
MIA 93·TOR 117
- Q4·1:23
Vladislav Goldin blocks Gradey Dick 's 13-foot fade away jump shot
·
MIA 93·TOR 117
- Q4·1:27
Raptors offensive team rebound
MIA 93·TOR 117
- Q4·1:27
Keshad Johnson blocks A.J. Lawson 's 1-foot two point shot
·
MIA 93·TOR 117
- Q4·1:30
Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound
MIA 93·TOR 117
- Q4·1:33
Trevor Keels misses 26-foot running jump shot
MIA 93·TOR 117
- Q4·1:38
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
MIA 93·TOR 117
- Q4·1:38
A.J. Lawson misses driving layup
MIA 93·TOR 117
- Q4·1:48
Keshad Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Myron Gardner assists)
·
MIA 93·TOR 117
- Q4·1:58
Vladislav Goldin defensive goaltending violation
MIA 90·TOR 117
- Q4·1:58
Jamison Battle makes 4-foot two point shot
MIA 90·TOR 117
Team stats
MIA
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
33-91
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
49-99
36
FG %
49
12-44
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-28
17-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-16
26
Assists
34
15
Turnovers
12
Betting line
TOR -2.5·O/U 240.5·MIA +120/TOR -142
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 7 players in cohort
Jakob PoeltlTOR · CTS%69.899- Scottie BarnesTOR · FDRIVES16.798
RJ BarrettTOR · FDRIVES16.497
Brandon IngramTOR · FUSG%26.890
Sandro MamukelashviliTOR · FTS%63.789
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TOR vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- RJ BarrettTOR21.8± 4.6high
- Scottie BarnesTOR20.0± 6.0high
- Tyler HerroMIA19.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
- Kel'el WareMIA8.8± 6.0high
- Scottie BarnesTOR6.7± 3.3high
Assists
- Scottie BarnesTOR7.1± 3.8high
- Davion MitchellMIA5.9± 2.8high
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR5.1± 2.5high
Blocks
- Scottie BarnesTOR1.5± 1.4high
- Kel'el WareMIA1.3± 2.5high
- Collin Murray-BoylesTOR1.0± 1.0high
Steals
- Chucky HepburnTOR1.9± 2.1low
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR1.6± 0.9high
- Ja'Kobe WalterTOR1.5± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIA
league avg
TOR
54.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
54.5%
46.8%
FG%
47.0
▶48.1%
120.9
PPG
114.9
114.3
29.0
Assists / G
25.0
29.2
13.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.0