CHA
43-37
BOS
54-25
Recap · NBA
oston Celtics held off Charlotte Hornets, 113–102.
BOS -4.5 cashed (won by 11). Total stayed UNDER 221.5 by 6.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CHA · top performer
LaMelo Ball
G · #1
36
Pts
5
Reb
6
Ast
BOS · top performer
Jaylen Brown
G · #7
35
Pts
9
Reb
3
Ast
NBA · Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 13 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 2-4 | -4 | 12 | 4 | |
| 33 | 2 | 1-3 | — | — | -18 | 5 | 5 | |
| 34 | 20 | 8-16 | 2-8 | 2-2 | -1 | 0 | 2 | |
| 37 | 36 | 12-24 | 6-15 | 6-6 | -1 | 5 | 6 | |
| 35 | 13 | 5-16 | 3-8 | — | -18 | 5 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 26 | 9 | 3-8 | 3-7 | — | -13 | 2 | 0 | |
| 15 | 4 | 2-2 | — | — | +7 | 3 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | +3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 7 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | -9 | 2 | 0 | |
| 19 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 0-1 | -1 | 5 | 2 | |
| Team | 102 | 38-88 | 16-49 | 10-13 | 40 | 24 | ||
| DNP: X. Tillman, T. Mann | ||||||||
DNP: X. Tillman, T. Mann
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 39 | 23 | 8-15 | 3-7 | 4-5 | +12 | 5 | 4 | |
| 16 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-5 | — | +4 | 5 | 3 | |
| 25 | 12 | 6-7 | — | — | +10 | 5 | 3 | |
| 37 | 12 | 4-5 | 4-5 | — | +18 | 2 | 3 | |
| 43 | 35 | 13-29 | 3-10 | 6-7 | +9 | 9 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 23 | 2 | 1-10 | 0-5 | — | +1 | 7 | 2 | |
| 30 | 12 | 4-8 | 4-7 | — | +5 | 4 | 3 | |
| 9 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | -1 | 2 | 1 | |
| 18 | 9 | 4-4 | 1-1 | — | -3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Team | 113 | 43-87 | 17-42 | 10-12 | 45 | 22 | ||
| DNP: A. Williams, L. Garza, R. Harper Jr., J. Tonje, M. Shulga, H. Gonzalez | ||||||||
DNP: A. Williams, L. Garza, R. Harper Jr., J. Tonje, M. Shulga, H. Gonzalez
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
49
24
Ast
22
Season series
BOS wins series 2-1
CHA118@BOS89BOS114@CHA99CHA102@BOS113todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
BOS -4.5
Half-pt below key 5
Total
221.5
Standard · -4.5 vs avg
Moneyline
CHA+16438%BOS-19866%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
4.5
0.0 since open
Total
221.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 12pp · 3rd Quarter · 48.5
CHAL. Ball
GGame leader · 37 min30-point game
36 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST
BOSJ. Brown
GGame leader · 43 min30-point game
35 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
BOS beat CHA 113-102. J. Brown led the way with 35 points and 9 rebounds. CHA outscored the other side 31-20 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
BOS vs CHA
Starters vs bench
production by unitCHAstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
84 PTS · 27 REB · 22 AST
GS 63
Bench(5)
18 PTS · 13 REB · 2 AST
GS 14
BOSstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
87 PTS · 26 REB · 16 AST
GS 71
Bench(4)
26 PTS · 19 REB · 6 AST
GS 22
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactKon Knueppel · enters the game for Sion James
LaMelo Ball · loose ball foul
Kon Knueppel · makes 29-foot three pointer (Sion James assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA | 31 | 30 | 26 | 15 | 102 |
| BOS | 20 | 35 | 35 | 23 | 113 |
Period scoring
CHA won 1 · BOS won 3
Q1
Ball 13
Queta 8
Q2
Ball 10
Brown 11
Q3
Ball 13
Brown 9
Q4
Knueppel 5
Brown 8
Shooting comparison
43%
38-88
FG
49%
43-87
33%
16-49
3PT
40%
17-42
77%
10-13
FT
83%
10-12
Play-by-play · 434 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 102·BOS 113
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 102·BOS 113
- Q4·0.4
shot clock turnover
CHA 102·BOS 113
- Q4·24.4
shot clock turnover
CHA 102·BOS 113
- Q4·48.5
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes dunk (Kon Knueppel assists)
·
CHA 102·BOS 113
- Q4·54.2
Payton Pritchard personal foul
CHA 100·BOS 113
- Q4·1:04
Derrick White makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHA 100·BOS 113
- Q4·1:15
Grant Williams enters the game for Miles Bridges
· ·
CHA 100·BOS 110
- Q4·1:15
Celtics offensive team rebound
CHA 100·BOS 110
- Q4·1:15
Jaylen Brown misses technical free throw
CHA 100·BOS 110
- Q4·1:15
Miles Bridges technical foul
CHA 100·BOS 110
- Q4·1:15
LaMelo Ball personal foul
CHA 100·BOS 110
- Q4·1:29
Brandon Miller makes 12-foot two point shot (LaMelo Ball assists)
·
CHA 100·BOS 110
- Q4·1:36
Neemias Queta enters the game for Nikola Vucevic
·
CHA 98·BOS 110
- Q4·1:36
Brandon Miller enters the game for Moussa Diabate
·
CHA 98·BOS 110
- Q4·1:36
Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for Grant Williams
· ·
CHA 98·BOS 110
- Q4·1:36
Hornets offensive team rebound
CHA 98·BOS 110
- Q4·1:38
Moussa Diabate misses tip shot
CHA 98·BOS 110
- Q4·1:38
Moussa Diabate offensive rebound
CHA 98·BOS 110
- Q4·1:39
Kon Knueppel misses 25-foot running jump shot
CHA 98·BOS 110
- Q4·1:46
Miles Bridges defensive rebound
CHA 98·BOS 110
- Q4·1:47
Nikola Vucevic misses 22-foot three point jumper
CHA 98·BOS 110
- Q4·2:00
Jayson Tatum defensive rebound
CHA 98·BOS 110
- Q4·2:02
Miles Bridges misses 10-foot turnaround jump shot
CHA 98·BOS 110
- Q4·2:22
Jaylen Brown makes 14-foot fade away jump shot
CHA 98·BOS 110
+0.5pp
- Q4·2:41
Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound
CHA 98·BOS 108
- Q4·2:42
Grant Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
CHA 98·BOS 108
+0.9pp
- Q4·2:57
Jayson Tatum makes two point shot (Jaylen Brown assists)
·
CHA 98·BOS 108
+2pp
- Q4·3:20
Kon Knueppel makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (LaMelo Ball assists)
·
CHA 98·BOS 106
−1pp
- Q4·3:31
Kon Knueppel enters the game for Brandon Miller
·
CHA 96·BOS 106
Team stats
CHA
Away
Stat
BOS
Home
38-88
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
43-87
43
FG %
49
16-49
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
17-42
10-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-12
24
Assists
22
12
Turnovers
12
Betting line
BOS -4.5·O/U 221.5·CHA +164/BOS -198
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort- Jaylen BrownBOS · GUSG%35.699+
Jayson TatumBOS · FTOUCHES8998
Neemias QuetaBOS · CCONT9.197
Payton PritchardBOS · GTOUCHES65.688
Nikola VucevicBOS · CCONT686
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · CHA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BOS vs CHA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Jaylen BrownBOS26.6± 6.3high
- Jayson TatumBOS22.9± 3.5high
- LaMelo BallCHA22.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Jayson TatumBOS10.4± 3.8high
- Moussa DiabateCHA8.8± 2.9high
- Neemias QuetaBOS8.4± 3.6high
Assists
- LaMelo BallCHA7.3± 2.5high
- Jayson TatumBOS6.4± 2.6high
- Payton PritchardBOS5.4± 2.2high
Blocks
- Ryan KalkbrennerCHA1.3± 1.3high
- Derrick WhiteBOS1.1± 1.3high
- Neemias QuetaBOS1.0± 0.8high
Steals
- Jayson TatumBOS1.4± 1.2high
- LaMelo BallCHA1.1± 0.7high
- Derrick WhiteBOS1.0± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
CHA
league avg
BOS
55.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
55.1%
45.9%
FG%
47.0
▶46.5%
115.8
PPG
114.9
114.2
26.2
Assists / G
25.0
24.6
14.4
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶11.5