NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11BOS

CHA

43-37

102113

BOS

54-25

NBATue, Apr 7FinalSeriesBOS wins series 2-1VegasBOS -4.5

CHA · top performer

LaMelo Ball

G · #1

25.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Jaylen Brown

G · #7

20.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 12pp · 3rd Quarter · 48.5

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	32	13	5-9	1-4	2-4	-4	12	4
M. DiabateF · #14	33	2	1-3	—	—	-18	5	5
B. MillerF · #24	34	20	8-16	2-8	2-2	-1	0	2
L. BallG · #1	37	36	12-24	6-15	6-6	-1	5	6
K. KnueppelG · #7	35	13	5-16	3-8	—	-18	5	5
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	26	9	3-8	3-7	—	-13	2	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	15	4	2-2	—	—	+7	3	0
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	+3	1	0
J. GreenG · #10	7	3	1-2	1-2	—	-9	2	0
S. JamesG · #4	19	2	1-7	0-4	0-1	-1	5	2
Team		102	38-88	16-49	10-13		40	24
DNP: X. Tillman, T. Mann

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. TatumF · #0	39	23	8-15	3-7	4-5	+12	5	4
S. HauserF · #30	16	5	2-7	1-5	—	+4	5	3
N. QuetaC · #88	25	12	6-7	—	—	+10	5	3
D. WhiteG · #9	37	12	4-5	4-5	—	+18	2	3
J. BrownG · #7	43	35	13-29	3-10	6-7	+9	9	3
Bench
N. VucevicC · #4	23	2	1-10	0-5	—	+1	7	2
P. PritchardG · #11	30	12	4-8	4-7	—	+5	4	3
B. ScheiermanG · #55	9	3	1-2	1-2	—	-1	2	1
J. WalshG · #27	18	9	4-4	1-1	—	-3	6	0
Team		113	43-87	17-42	10-12		45	22
DNP: J. Tonje, A. Williams, L. Garza, R. Harper Jr., M. Shulga, H. Gonzalez

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

38-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-87

FG %

16-49

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-42

10-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-12

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS wins series 2-1

Mar 5

CHA118@

BOS89

Mar 29

BOS114@

CHA99

Apr 8

CHA102@

BOS113today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA+16438%

BOS-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -4.5↗SpreadBet BOS -4.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat CHA 113-102. J. Brown led the way with 35 points and 9 rebounds. CHA outscored the other side 31-20 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 27 REB · 22 AST

GS 63

Bench(5)

18 PTS · 13 REB · 2 AST

GS 14

BOSstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 26 REB · 16 AST

GS 71

Bench(4)

26 PTS · 19 REB · 6 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS3rd Quarter · 2:23 · 84-80

+11pp→ 32% WP

Kon Knueppel · enters the game for Sion James

BOS3rd Quarter · 48.5 · 87-86

+12pp→ 57% WP

LaMelo Ball · loose ball foul

CHA4th Quarter · 8:52 · 94-96

+9pp→ 33% WP

Kon Knueppel · makes 29-foot three pointer (Sion James assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	31	30	26	15	102
BOS	20	35	35	23	113

Period scoring

CHA won 1 · BOS won 3

Ball 13

Queta 8

Ball 10

Brown 11

Ball 13

Brown 9

Knueppel 5

Brown 8

CHA

BOS

Shooting comparison

CHA

BOS

43%

38-88

49%

43-87

33%

16-49

3PT

40%

17-42

77%

10-13

83%

10-12

Play-by-play · 434 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 102·BOS 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 102·BOS 113
Q4·0.4
shot clock turnover
CHA 102·BOS 113
Q4·24.4
shot clock turnover
CHA 102·BOS 113
Q4·48.5
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes dunk (Kon Knueppel assists)
·
CHA 102·BOS 113
Q4·54.2
Payton Pritchard personal foul
CHA 100·BOS 113
Q4·1:04
Derrick White makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHA 100·BOS 113
Q4·1:15
Grant Williams enters the game for Miles Bridges
· ·
CHA 100·BOS 110
Q4·1:15
Celtics offensive team rebound
CHA 100·BOS 110
Q4·1:15
Jaylen Brown misses technical free throw
CHA 100·BOS 110
Q4·1:15
Miles Bridges technical foul
CHA 100·BOS 110
Q4·1:15
LaMelo Ball personal foul
CHA 100·BOS 110
Q4·1:29
Brandon Miller makes 12-foot two point shot (LaMelo Ball assists)
·
CHA 100·BOS 110
Q4·1:36
Neemias Queta enters the game for Nikola Vucevic
·
CHA 98·BOS 110
Q4·1:36
Brandon Miller enters the game for Moussa Diabate
·
CHA 98·BOS 110
Q4·1:36
Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for Grant Williams
· ·
CHA 98·BOS 110
Q4·1:36
Hornets offensive team rebound
CHA 98·BOS 110
Q4·1:38
Moussa Diabate misses tip shot
CHA 98·BOS 110
Q4·1:38
Moussa Diabate offensive rebound
CHA 98·BOS 110
Q4·1:39
Kon Knueppel misses 25-foot running jump shot
CHA 98·BOS 110
Q4·1:46
Miles Bridges defensive rebound
CHA 98·BOS 110
Q4·1:47
Nikola Vucevic misses 22-foot three point jumper
CHA 98·BOS 110
Q4·2:00
Jayson Tatum defensive rebound
CHA 98·BOS 110
Q4·2:02
Miles Bridges misses 10-foot turnaround jump shot
CHA 98·BOS 110
Q4·2:22
Jaylen Brown makes 14-foot fade away jump shot
CHA 98·BOS 110
+0.5pp
Q4·2:41
Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound
CHA 98·BOS 108
Q4·2:42
Grant Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
CHA 98·BOS 108
+0.9pp
Q4·2:57
Jayson Tatum makes two point shot (Jaylen Brown assists)
·
CHA 98·BOS 108
+2pp
Q4·3:20
Kon Knueppel makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (LaMelo Ball assists)
·
CHA 98·BOS 106
−1pp
Q4·3:31
Kon Knueppel enters the game for Brandon Miller
·
CHA 96·BOS 106

Betting line

BOS -4.5·O/U 221.5·CHA +164/BOS -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics held off Charlotte Hornets, 113–102.

BOS -4.5 cashed (won by 11). Total stayed UNDER 221.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Jayson TatumBOS · F
TOUCHES8998
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs CHA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

145

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Jayson TatumBOS
22.9± 3.5high
Brandon MillerCHA
18.8± 5.5high
Paul GeorgeBOS
16.6± 4.2high

Rebounds

Jayson TatumBOS
10.4± 3.8high
Moussa DiabateCHA
8.8± 2.9high
Neemias QuetaBOS
8.4± 3.6high

Assists

Jayson TatumBOS
6.4± 2.6high
Payton PritchardBOS
5.4± 2.2high
Derrick WhiteBOS
4.0± 1.6high

Blocks

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA
1.3± 1.3high
Derrick WhiteBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Neemias QuetaBOS
1.0± 0.8high

Steals

Paul GeorgeBOS
1.5± 1.1high
Jayson TatumBOS
1.4± 1.2high
Derrick WhiteBOS
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

BOS

55.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.5%

115.8

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

26.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

14.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Team pages

Charlotte HornetsBoston Celtics

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR