NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5GS

SAC

21-59

105110

37-42

NBATue, Apr 7FinalSeriesGS leads series 2-1VegasGS -14.5

Recap · NBA

olden State Warriors held off Sacramento Kings, 110–105. Decided by 5.

SAC +14.5 cashed (GS won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SAC · top performer

Killian Hayes

G · #3

14.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

De'Anthony Melton

G · #8

19.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	34	13	6-14	0-2	1-2	+3	6	4
M. RaynaudC · #42	26	17	7-14	0-1	3-3	-4	7	1
D. PlowdenG · #29	26	11	4-7	3-6	—	-12	1	1
D. CarterG · #22	21	6	3-5	—	0-2	-7	3	5
N. CliffordG · #5	36	12	4-14	1-4	3-4	0	6	2
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	29	16	5-13	4-10	2-2	-4	4	2
D. CardwellC · #32	26	8	4-4	—	—	+1	9	2
M. MonkG · #0	11	4	2-3	0-1	—	-2	1	1
K. HayesG · #3	32	18	6-13	3-7	3-4	0	4	4
Team		105	41-87	11-31	12-17		41	22
DNP: D. Eubanks, K. Murray, Z. LaVine

DNP: D. Eubanks, K. Murray, Z. LaVine

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	27	1	0-3	0-3	1-2	0	6	7
M. LeonsF · #33	21	2	1-5	—	—	-15	5	3
D. MeltonG · #8	29	21	7-12	4-6	3-5	-1	4	5
P. SpencerG · #61	41	14	5-16	3-8	1-2	-5	2	3
B. PodziemskiG · #2	30	20	5-11	4-6	6-6	+8	1	3
Bench
O. YurtsevenC · #77	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
C. BasseyC · #28	27	14	7-12	—	—	+9	12	0
S. CurryG · #30	25	17	5-12	4-11	3-3	+6	5	2
Se. CurryG · #31	16	9	2-4	2-3	3-4	+16	0	1
G. Payton IIG · #0	25	12	5-7	0-1	2-2	+7	4	3
Team		110	37-82	17-38	19-24		39	27
DNP: G. Santos, K. Porzingis, W. Richard

DNP: G. Santos, K. Porzingis, W. Richard

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

GS leads series 2-1

Nov 6

GS116@

SAC121

Jan 10

SAC103@

GS137

Apr 8

SAC105@

GS110today

Apr 11

GS118@

SAC124

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -14.5

Between 10 and —

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SAC+70013%

GS-110092%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -14.5↗SpreadBet GS -14.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSAC ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 2:53

SAC

K. Hayes

Game leader · 32 min

18 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST

D. Melton

Game leader · 29 min

21 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST

How it ended

GS beat SAC 110-105. D. Melton led with 21 PTS, 4 REB, 5 AST. GS outscored the other side 41-27 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs SAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SACstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 23 REB · 13 AST

GS 42

Bench(4)

46 PTS · 18 REB · 9 AST

GS 40

GSstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 18 REB · 21 AST

GS 43

Bench(5)

52 PTS · 21 REB · 6 AST

GS 49

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC4th Quarter · 4:18 · 99-98

+16pp→ 46% WP

Dylan Cardwell · blocks Charles Bassey 's 3-foot driving layup

SAC4th Quarter · 2:53 · 104-101

+17pp→ 60% WP

Doug McDermott · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dylan Cardwell assists)

GS4th Quarter · 1:52 · 104-107

+16pp→ 80% WP

Brandin Podziemski · makes 24-foot three pointer (Stephen Curry assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	26	27	28	24	105
GS	25	41	19	25	110

Period scoring

SAC won 2 · GS won 2

Raynaud 7

Spencer 7

McDermott 8

Melton 12

Raynaud 8

II 6

Achiuwa 8

Podziemski 7

SAC

Shooting comparison

SAC

47%

41-87

45%

37-82

35%

11-31

3PT

45%

17-38

71%

12-17

79%

19-24

Play-by-play · 465 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 105·GS 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 105·GS 110
+2pp
Q4·14.3
Stephen Curry defensive rebound
·
SAC 105·GS 110
+1pp
Q4·17.3
Doug McDermott misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
SAC 105·GS 110
+4pp
Q4·28.0
De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 105·GS 110
−0.6pp
Q4·28.0
Warriors offensive team rebound
SAC 105·GS 109
−2pp
Q4·28.0
De'Anthony Melton misses free throw 1 of 2
SAC 105·GS 109
−2pp
Q4·28.0
Killian Hayes personal take foul
SAC 105·GS 109
+5pp
Q4·31.0
Killian Hayes makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 105·GS 109
+0.6pp
Q4·31.0
Charles Bassey enters the game for Gary Payton II
·
SAC 104·GS 109
Q4·31.0
Kings offensive team rebound
SAC 104·GS 109
+4pp
Q4·31.0
Killian Hayes misses free throw 1 of 2
SAC 104·GS 109
+5pp
Q4·31.0
Brandin Podziemski personal foulBIG MOMENT
SAC 104·GS 109
−8pp
Q4·37.5
Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
SAC 104·GS 109
−0.8pp
Q4·41.1
Stephen Curry misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
SAC 104·GS 109
−2pp
Q4·57.3
Warriors defensive team rebound
SAC 104·GS 109
+1pp
Q4·57.9
Doug McDermott misses 29-foot three point jumper
SAC 104·GS 109
+4pp
Q4·1:04
Doug McDermott defensive rebound
SAC 104·GS 109
−1pp
Q4·1:07
De'Anthony Melton misses layup
SAC 104·GS 109
−3pp
Q4·1:25
Doug McDermott bad pass turnover (De'Anthony Melton steals)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 104·GS 109
+13pp
Q4·1:38
Gary Payton II enters the game for Seth Curry
· ·
SAC 104·GS 109
Q4·1:38
Brandin Podziemski personal take foulBIG MOMENT
SAC 104·GS 109
−10pp
Q4·1:39
Seth Curry makes free throw 2 of 2
·
SAC 104·GS 109
−3pp
Q4·1:39
Maxime Raynaud enters the game for Dylan Cardwell
·
SAC 104·GS 108
Q4·1:39
De'Anthony Melton enters the game for Charles Bassey
·
SAC 104·GS 108
Q4·1:39
Seth Curry makes free throw 1 of 2
·
SAC 104·GS 108
+0.9pp
Q4·1:39
Dylan Cardwell loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
SAC 104·GS 107
+6pp
Q4·1:39
Warriors defensive team rebound
SAC 104·GS 107
+2pp
Q4·1:39
Killian Hayes misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
SAC 104·GS 107
+5pp
Q4·1:52
Brandin Podziemski makes 24-foot three pointer (Stephen Curry assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
SAC 104·GS 107
+16pp

Team stats

SAC

Away

Stat

Home

41-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-82

FG %

11-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-38

12-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-24

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

GS -14.5·O/U 233.5·SAC +700/GS -1100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

GS vs SAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
20.4± 6.0high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high
Precious AchiuwaSAC
8.2± 4.6high

Assists

Russell WestbrookSAC
7.5± 2.7high
Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
4.8± 1.7high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high
Stephen CurryGS
1.3± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

SAC

league avg

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.2%

111.0

PPG

114.9

▶

114.5

25.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.8

13.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR