DAL
25-54
LAC
41-38
Recap · NBA
A Clippers held off Dallas Mavericks, 116–103.
LAC -11.5 cashed (won by 13). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 16.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DAL · top performer
Marvin Bagley III
F · #35
21
Pts
9
Reb
1
Ast
LAC · top performer
Kawhi Leonard
F · #2
34
Pts
4
Reb
3
Ast
NBA · Dallas Mavericks at LA Clippers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 20 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-1 | — | -18 | 2 | 3 | |
| 19 | 4 | — | — | 4-4 | -8 | 8 | 1 | |
| 20 | 6 | 3-10 | 0-1 | — | -13 | 2 | 0 | |
| 34 | 25 | 9-25 | 1-3 | 6-6 | -14 | 9 | 2 | |
| 29 | 12 | 1-8 | 0-5 | 10-10 | -12 | 5 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 26 | 21 | 8-11 | 1-1 | 4-4 | -8 | 9 | 1 | |
| 18 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 | — | -1 | 2 | 1 | |
| 26 | 11 | 4-17 | 1-10 | 2-2 | +1 | 3 | 2 | |
| 25 | 12 | 6-12 | 0-2 | — | +5 | 6 | 7 | |
| 19 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-5 | — | +5 | 6 | 0 | |
| 5 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | -2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 103 | 35-100 | 6-33 | 27-28 | 54 | 18 | ||
| DNP: P.J. Washington | ||||||||
DNP: P.J. Washington
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 30 | 34 | 11-19 | 6-10 | 6-9 | +11 | 4 | 3 | |
| 23 | 11 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 2-2 | +10 | 10 | 2 | |
| 25 | 9 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 0-1 | +10 | 11 | 3 | |
| 27 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | — | +18 | 7 | 3 | |
| 28 | 22 | 9-18 | 2-6 | 2-2 | +22 | 1 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 28 | 12 | 5-11 | 1-5 | 1-4 | -5 | 7 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | -3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 16 | 4 | 1-1 | — | 2-2 | -1 | 2 | 1 | |
| 27 | 9 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 7-8 | -1 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 24 | 11 | 4-8 | 3-7 | — | +13 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | -3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 116 | 41-92 | 14-37 | 20-28 | 56 | 23 | ||
| DNP: N. Batum, B. Bogdanovic | ||||||||
DNP: N. Batum, B. Bogdanovic
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
35
FG %
45
18
Ast
23
Season series
LAC win series 3-1
LAC133@DAL127DAL114@LAC110LAC138@DAL131DAL103@LAC116todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LAC -11.5
Between 10 and —
Total
235.5
High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DAL+47018%LAC-65087%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
11.5
0.0 since open
Total
235.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 30pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:58
DALM. Bagley III
FGame leader · 26 min
21 PTS · 9 REB · 1 AST
LACK. Leonard
FGame leader · 30 min30-point game
34 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
LAC beat DAL 116-103. K. Leonard paced them with 34 PTS, 4 REB, 3 AST. LAC outscored the other side 39-26 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LAC vs DAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitDALstarters 48% of ptsStarters(5)
49 PTS · 26 REB · 7 AST
GS 32
Bench(6)
54 PTS · 28 REB · 11 AST
GS 47
LACstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
78 PTS · 33 REB · 15 AST
GS 67
Bench(8)
38 PTS · 23 REB · 8 AST
GS 27
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMax Christie de · fensive rebound
Max Christie · makes free throw 2 of 2
John Collins · misses 24-foot three point jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 26 | 29 | 29 | 19 | 103 |
| LAC | 39 | 26 | 24 | 27 | 116 |
Period scoring
DAL won 2 · LAC won 2
Q1
Flagg 13
Leonard 12
Q2
III 9
Leonard 7
Q3
Flagg 8
Leonard 15
Q4
Smith 6
Garland 10
Shooting comparison
35%
35-100
FG
45%
41-92
18%
6-33
3PT
38%
14-37
96%
27-28
FT
71%
20-28
Play-by-play · 507 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 103·LAC 116
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 103·LAC 116
- Q4·5.1
shot clock turnover
DAL 103·LAC 116
- Q4·5.1
Clippers offensive team rebound
DAL 103·LAC 116
- Q4·5.6
Klay Thompson blocks Sean Pedulla 's 19-foot pullup jump shot
·
DAL 103·LAC 116
- Q4·29.2
Klay Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 103·LAC 116
- Q4·29.2
Klay Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 102·LAC 116
- Q4·29.2
Sean Pedulla shooting foul
DAL 101·LAC 116
- Q4·36.9
Norchad Omier makes 2-foot reverse layup (Sean Pedulla assists)
·
DAL 101·LAC 116
- Q4·52.9
Klay Thompson makes 14-foot fade away jump shot
DAL 101·LAC 114
- Q4·1:05
Mavericks defensive team rebound
DAL 99·LAC 114
- Q4·1:05
Klay Thompson blocks Norchad Omier's layup
·
DAL 99·LAC 114
- Q4·1:24
AJ Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 99·LAC 114
- Q4·1:24
Mavericks offensive team rebound
DAL 98·LAC 114
- Q4·1:24
AJ Johnson misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 98·LAC 114
- Q4·1:24
Norchad Omier shooting foul
DAL 98·LAC 114
- Q4·1:33
Tyler Smith defensive rebound
DAL 98·LAC 114
- Q4·1:36
Bennedict Mathurin misses 13-foot two point shot
DAL 98·LAC 114
- Q4·1:52
Bennedict Mathurin enters the game for John Collins
·
DAL 98·LAC 114
- Q4·1:52
Clippers Full timeout
DAL 98·LAC 114
- Q4·1:52
Sean Pedulla defensive rebound
DAL 98·LAC 114
- Q4·1:52
Klay Thompson misses 26-foot running jump shot
DAL 98·LAC 114
- Q4·1:55
John Poulakidas defensive rebound
DAL 98·LAC 114
- Q4·1:58
John Poulakidas blocks Cam Christie 's 2-foot running layup
· ·
DAL 98·LAC 114
- Q4·2:01
TyTy Washington Jr. defensive rebound
·
DAL 98·LAC 114
- Q4·2:04
John Collins blocks AJ Johnson 's 2-foot driving layup
·
DAL 98·LAC 114
- Q4·2:12
AJ Johnson defensive rebound
DAL 98·LAC 114
- Q4·2:17
Sean Pedulla misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 98·LAC 114
- Q4·2:26
Norchad Omier offensive rebound
DAL 98·LAC 114
- Q4·2:29
John Collins misses free throw 1 of 1
DAL 98·LAC 114
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
LAC
Home
35-100
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-92
35
FG %
45
6-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-37
27-28
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-28
18
Assists
23
8
Turnovers
14
Betting line
LAC -11.5·O/U 235.5·DAL +470/LAC -650
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAC vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Kawhi LeonardLAC25.5± 4.3high
- Cooper FlaggDAL23.6± 14.0high
- Kyrie IrvingDAL23.4± 13.6high
Rebounds
- Daniel GaffordDAL7.8± 3.6high
- Moussa CisseDAL7.8± 4.7high
- P.J. WashingtonDAL7.4± 3.5high
Assists
- Darius GarlandLAC6.3± 2.3high
- Ryan NembhardDAL6.2± 5.9high
- Brandon WilliamsDAL4.2± 1.8high
Blocks
- Dereck Lively IIDAL1.6± 1.3low
- Brook LopezLAC1.3± 1.4high
- Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC1.3± 1.5high
Steals
- Kris DunnLAC1.6± 1.1high
- Cooper FlaggDAL1.4± 1.4high
- Kyrie IrvingDAL1.4± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DAL
league avg
LAC
52.7%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.9%
46.6%
FG%
47.0
▶48.5%
114.1
PPG
114.9
113.9
25.3
Assists / G
25.0
23.8
14.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.6