NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+20MIN

MIN

47-32

124104

IND

18-61

NBATue, Apr 7FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-0VegasMIN -12.5

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 124–104. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIN -12.5 cashed (won by 20). Total stayed UNDER 234.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

Bones Hyland

G · #8

20.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Ethan Thompson

G · #55

12.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	28	19	5-13	3-7	6-6	+19	2	4
R. GobertC · #27	33	5	2-5	—	1-1	+7	12	3
M. ConleyG · #10	21	8	3-6	2-4	—	+15	2	3
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	31	11	4-12	3-10	—	+15	6	4
A. DosunmuG · #13	33	24	10-17	1-5	3-3	+22	5	1
Bench
K. AndersonF · #12	16	6	3-5	—	—	+10	3	4
E. FreemanF · #25	3	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
J. PhillipsF · #4	3	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
J. BeringerF · #19	3	2	1-1	—	—	-5	1	0
N. ReidC · #11	24	17	7-10	3-5	—	+19	2	1
J. ClarkG · #22	18	11	5-9	1-3	—	+3	1	0
T. Shannon Jr.G · #1	3	2	1-2	—	—	-5	1	0
B. HylandG · #8	21	19	5-9	4-7	5-6	+15	4	7
Z. PullinG · #15	3	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
Team		124	46-89	17-41	15-16		39	27
DNP: J. Ingles

DNP: J. Ingles

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. WalkerF · #5	28	11	4-12	1-6	2-2	-19	6	5
J. HuffC · #32	26	12	5-9	2-3	—	-20	4	3
E. ThompsonG · #55	30	17	4-8	1-3	8-10	-28	4	1
K. BrownG · #24	16	2	1-2	0-1	—	-10	5	1
Q. JacksonG · #29	25	9	2-7	0-1	5-6	-17	1	4
Bench
O. ToppinF · #1	22	14	4-13	1-3	5-5	-9	3	2
J. SlawsonF · #18	34	14	6-7	1-2	1-2	0	2	0
M. PotterC · #11	22	11	3-5	1-3	4-6	0	3	2
K. JonesG · #7	23	9	4-7	1-2	—	-3	2	4
T. PeterG · #4	13	5	2-3	1-2	—	+6	4	2
Team		104	35-73	9-26	25-31		34	24
DNP: B. Sheppard

DNP: B. Sheppard

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

MIN wins series 2-0

Oct 26

IND110@

MIN114

Apr 7

MIN124@

IND104today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-75088%

IND+52516%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -12.5↗SpreadBet MIN -12.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ IND

MIN

B. Hyland

Game leader · 21 min

19 PTS · 4 REB · 7 AST

IND

E. Thompson

Game leader · 30 min

17 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST

How it ended

MIN beat IND 124-104. B. Hyland led with 19 PTS, 4 REB, 7 AST. MIN outscored the other side 39-24 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 27 REB · 15 AST

GS 55

Bench(9)

57 PTS · 12 REB · 12 AST

GS 52

INDstarters 49% of pts

Starters(5)

51 PTS · 20 REB · 14 AST

GS 35

Bench(5)

53 PTS · 14 REB · 10 AST

GS 42

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	35	28	39	22	124
IND	27	26	24	27	104

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · IND won 1

Randle 8

Huff 5

Dosunmu 10

Toppin 7

Dosunmu 11

Thompson 5

Hyland 8

Slawson 7

MIN

IND

Shooting comparison

MIN

IND

52%

46-89

48%

35-73

41%

17-41

3PT

35%

9-26

94%

15-16

81%

25-31

Play-by-play · 462 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 124·IND 104
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 124·IND 104
Q4·0.3
Jarace Walker out of bounds lost ball turnover
MIN 124·IND 104
Q4·20.8
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 21-foot step back jumpshot
MIN 124·IND 104
Q4·39.5
Joan Beringer defensive rebound
MIN 122·IND 104
Q4·42.6
Taelon Peter misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 122·IND 104
Q4·51.8
Julian Phillips personal foul
MIN 122·IND 104
Q4·1:02
Julian Phillips offensive foul turnover
MIN 122·IND 104
Q4·1:02
Julian Phillips offensive charge
MIN 122·IND 104
Q4·1:06
Jalen Slawson makes 2-foot driving floating jump shot (Jay Huff assists)
·
MIN 122·IND 104
Q4·1:17
Joan Beringer makes 2-foot driving dunk
MIN 122·IND 102
Q4·1:30
Taelon Peter makes 1-foot driving dunk
MIN 120·IND 102
Q4·1:31
Joan Beringer lost ball turnover (Taelon Peter steals)
·
MIN 120·IND 100
Q4·1:54
Jay Huff makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)
·
MIN 120·IND 100
Q4·2:01
Taelon Peter defensive rebound
MIN 120·IND 97
Q4·2:04
Terrence Shannon Jr. misses driving layup
MIN 120·IND 97
Q4·2:23
Jay Huff makes 2-foot dunk
MIN 120·IND 97
Q4·2:37
Terrence Shannon Jr. out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIN 120·IND 95
Q4·2:43
Terrence Shannon Jr. defensive rebound
MIN 120·IND 95
Q4·2:46
Joan Beringer blocks Jarace Walker 's 4-foot two point shot
·
MIN 120·IND 95
Q4·2:54
Joan Beringer lost ball turnover (Taelon Peter steals)
·
MIN 120·IND 95
Q4·3:07
Julian Phillips enters the game for Bones Hyland
·
MIN 120·IND 95
Q4·3:07
Enrique Freeman enters the game for Julius Randle
·
MIN 120·IND 95
Q4·3:07
Joan Beringer enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
MIN 120·IND 95
Q4·3:07
Terrence Shannon Jr. enters the game for Jaylen Clark
·
MIN 120·IND 95
Q4·3:07
Zyon Pullin enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu
·
MIN 120·IND 95
Q4·3:07
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 120·IND 95
Q4·3:08
Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
MIN 120·IND 95
Q4·3:12
Kam Jones misses 28-foot three point jumper
MIN 120·IND 95
Q4·3:13
Taelon Peter offensive rebound
MIN 120·IND 95

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

IND

Home

46-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-73

FG %

17-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-26

15-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-31

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

MIN -12.5·O/U 234.5·MIN -750/IND +525

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 7 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Julius RandleMIN · F
DRIVES1290
Ayo DosunmuMIN · G
TS%63.087

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

IND vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 160 high confidence

Points

Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
Julius RandleMIN
17.3± 6.4high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high
Julius RandleMIN
7.2± 2.1high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
T.J. McConnellIND
6.2± 3.1high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high

Steals

Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium
Pascal SiakamIND
1.2± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIN

league avg

IND

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

47.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.8%

116.8

PPG

◀

114.9

112.4

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.7

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR