Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at TEX?

The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 12, 2026

FINAL+1TEX

HOU

47-51

TEX

49-47

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

33,804 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

TEX no-vig %

56.4%

open 54.2% · +2.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.0%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
52.1%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.9%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.3%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.14

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+109

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

43.6%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at TEX?: The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+26.1pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

HOU

★ best

+338DraftKings

edge +26.1pp · implied 21.5%

TEX

no live price

Book	HOU	TEX	Best edge
DraftKings	+338★	-509	+26.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TEX vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 2.1high
MacKenzie GoreTEX
6.3± 1.8high

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.8± 0.9high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.3± 1.3high
Christian WalkerHOU
1.0± 0.6high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
3.3± 2.0high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.3± 2.5high
Wyatt LangfordTEX
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Jeremy PenaHOU
0.8± 1.1high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.8± 1.0high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
MacKenzie GoreTEX
3.2± 1.9high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

TEX

.739

OPS

◀

.719

.720

.321

OBP

.318

4.67

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.15

4.65

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.35

1.38

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.29

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

HOU 5 · TEX 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1	0	5
TEX	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PenaSS	.287	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.318	3	0	2	0	0	2	0
I. Paredes3B	.254	4	0	1	2	0	1	1
C. Walker1B	.237	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Altuve2B	.235	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
C. SmithRF	.218	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
L. Wade Jr.LF	.250	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
B. MatthewsCF	.197	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. VazquezC	.220	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TrammellCF	.230	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. DezenzoUN	.228	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
Y. DiazC	.248	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
Team		33	5	8	5	2	5	8

Player

.287

.318

.254

.237

.235

.218

.250

.197

.220

.230

.228

.248

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. JavierSP	3.0	4	3	3	3	4	60
E. De Los SantosRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
B. AbreuRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	21
S. OkertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
B. KingRP	2.0	3	1	1	1	1	31
J. HaderRP	0.0	3	1	1	0	0	9
Team	8.0	11	6	6	5	8	149

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

0.0

Team

8.0

149

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.235	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
W. LangfordLF	.275	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.298	3	1	2	0	0	2	1
B. NimmoRF	.263	5	0	3	2	0	0	0
J. Burger1B	.240	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
E. DuranSS	.270	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
E. CarterCF	.188	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. Lopez2B	.324	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
K. HigashiokaC	.220	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. Foscue2B	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. CauleyCF	.238	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. DiazC	.279	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. OsunaLF	.256	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	6	11	6	1	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. GoreSP	4.0	2	1	1	1	4	65
T. AlexanderRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	23
C. WinnRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	11
R. AhlstromRP	0.1	2	2	2	0	0	20
P. GrayRP	0.2	1	1	1	2	0	16
B. PeoplesRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	12
J. LatzRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	9
Team	9.0	8	5	5	5	8	156

Team

HOU

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TEX vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

TEX vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.