Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAA at TEX?

The model favors TEX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 9, 2026

FINAL+1TEX

LAA

37-57

TEX

47-46

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

29,646 attended

Line movement

40 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TEX no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.5%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
67.6%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
67.3%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
68.1%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAA at TEX?: The model favors TEX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

TEX vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 113 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 2.1high
Reid DetmersLAA
6.4± 2.0high

Hits

Mike TroutLAA
1.1± 1.2high
Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.0± 1.0high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Wyatt LangfordTEX
2.0± 1.9high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.9± 2.6high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

Vaughn GrissomLAA
0.7± 0.9high
Jorge SolerLAA
0.6± 0.8high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
3.9± 3.0low
MacKenzie GoreTEX
3.2± 1.9high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAA

league avg

TEX

.695

OPS

.719

▶

.720

.313

OBP

.318

▶

.318

4.20

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.15

4.49

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.35

1.37

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.29

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

LAA 6 · TEX 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +18pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAA	0	0	1	0	0	0	5	0	0	6
TEX	2	0	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.234	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. TroutCF	.230	5	1	0	1	0	0	2
N. Schanuel1B	.269	4	1	4	2	0	1	0
J. SolerDH	.212	5	0	1	1	0	0	3
V. Grissom2B	.249	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
J. LoweLF	.211	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. Guzman3B	.253	3	1	0	0	0	0	2
L. O'HoppeC	.220	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
W. MecklerLF	.294	3	2	2	1	0	0	0
O. Peraza2B	.241	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AdellRF	.252	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. SiriCF	.256	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		37	6	10	6	0	4	15

Player

.234

.230

.269

.212

.249

.211

.253

.220

.294

.241

.252

.256

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. DetmersSP	4.0	7	5	5	1	6	82
C. SilsethRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
B. SuterRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	24
R. ZeferjahnRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
S. BachmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
K. YatesRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	8
Team	8.1	11	7	7	1	10	146

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

Team

8.1

146

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Foscue2B	.290	3	1	2	2	1	1	0
W. LangfordLF	.275	5	0	1	1	0	0	3
B. NimmoRF	.257	4	2	2	1	1	0	0
J. Jung3B	.297	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	.244	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
E. DuranSS	.268	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
K. HigashiokaC	.225	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. CauleyCF	.211	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. OsunaLF	.256	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. Lopez2B	.330	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PedersonDH	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. DiazC	.290	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. CarterCF	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	7	11	7	3	1	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. EovaldiSP	6.0	6	4	3	2	10	99
P. GrayRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	1	23
T. AlexanderRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	8
J. LatzRP	1.2	1	0	0	1	3	41
C. WinnRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team	9.0	10	6	5	4	15	174

Team

LAA

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

TEX vs LAA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

TEX vs LAA.

3 sub-models, blended.